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Monday Roundup, 9/24/2023: Covid, Canada, Luongo
Gotta luv this mix of admission and disinformation:
Seriously running out of conspiracy theories
Note this carefully. Mayo says HCQ may be used to treat “certain hospitalized patients”. Why “hospitalized”? HCQ is one of the ten most commonly used drugs world wide. It’s actually very safe and effective as a prophylactic against malaria. Why wait for hospitalization for Covid? Since HCQ is so safe when used strictly as a prophylactic, if it is at all effective for hospitalized patients it makes sense to use it as a prophylactic against against Covid, too. Certainly for at risk people—those with serious co-morbidities.
More Covid news—you heard this on the MSM, right? NB, the claim that democracy should be replaced by the rule of “experts”, the Chevron Rule invented by the SCOTUS that deference should be given to the opinion of government “experts”, is the foundation of Prog Think. It’s as old as Plato’s “guardians.” Just as old is the question: Who will watch the guardians?
Please trust CDC for their medical advice
Replying to @DeepBlueCrypto
The US government through CDC said it was safe for pregnant women to get the COVID-19 vaccine because the injected mRNA stayed in the arm and did not travel through the body. A new Lancet study, which found mRNA in breast milk, shows the government lied.
BREAKING: Latest picture of Canadian Parliament.
But this shouldn’t be a surprise if you’ve followed Canadian politics over the years, taking its deep dive down the woke rabbit hole. It can happen here, too. In fact …
If countries can embrace false and anti-human ideologies like transgenderism, can any of these other excesses, hoaxes, and deceptions come as surprises?
Now, following up on what Tom Luongo has been saying about the bond markets, this series of tweets at his feed may help explain what’s coming up, as well as what’s going on in DC with the budget negotiations. As you read this first thread, bear in mind that, according to Luongo as I understand him, Powell has been draining the RRP (Reverse Repo facility) with his policies:
US treasury net issuance over past 4 months:
Bills (<1yr duration): +$1.1 Trillion
Notes (2-10yrs duration): -$0.1 Trillion
Bonds (20yr+ duration): +$0.1 Trillion
$0.9T of the 1.1T in Bills was funded by withdrawals from RRP (roughly 80% of issuance)
The Federal government can run a multi-trillion $ deficit right now with minimal consequence, because they are simply raiding the $2.3T piggy bank that was sitting in the RRP
We’re now down to $1.4T remaining in RRP, enough to fund another 9-10 months of spending @ current rate
Draining RRP funds allows the Treasury to issue nearly a trillion per quarter of <1yr Bills, while keeping yields ~capped @ a few basis points above Fed Funds all the way out to 1yr duration.
There is no price discovery at the short end as long as funds remain in RRP:
But if the federal gov keeps spending at current rate, RRP will be empty by June/July 2024
At that time, price discovery for yields across the curve will truly begin
The US Federal debt will have grown to $34.5T
With a whole lot of that being short-dated stuff from the post-pandemic era that needs to be rolled over again.
Yellen’s job is easy & obvious for now, and they are making the smart move by raiding the funds from RRP while they can
But come June / July 2024, the Treasury, and therefore the federal gov as a whole, is likely to find itself in quite a pickle 🥒
I know what you’re thinking. By June/July, 2024, Ukraine will probably be down the drain—if not sooner—and we’ll be looking at a national election. May we live in interesting times!
Now, this thread by Luongo is 5 tweets long. I’ve removed most of the pictures. For people like me, the beginning and end is what matters and the middle parts buttress the overall argument:
So, the Y[ield] C[urve] is steepening this morning thanks to@SecYellen panicking on Friday, announcing Yield Curve Control. Note the 5yr/7yr spread is about to turn positive! This is killing the euro and the Eurobond markets.
Euro below the 1-bar Quarterly Reversal level of 1.0633 and falling fast.
German 10-year at 2.79% and rising (up 5 bps today).
The Yen is approaching the ¥150 level where the BoJ will have to intervene. This will send the 10 YR JGB to 1% and the EUR/JPY will fall hard.
The USD is beginning to eat everything as the Bond Vigilantes begin sharpening their Bat-a-Rangs and gassing up the Batmobile for Q4.
Repeat: Ukraine is a disaster, we have crazies at the levers of power, and there will be a national election in November, 2024.
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