Monday Morning, Fake News First

This has become a pattern. Over the weekend investors ponder what’s going on. Trump reacts by, first thing Monday, promulgating Fake News—i.e., lies—in order to try to head off adverse market reactions to the Real News. Later in the week, reality sets in.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

13h

Interestingly, last week multiple senior fund managers pointed out to me that this pattern has held for each of the last 3 weeks:

“TACO/positive news” Monday, “uh-oh” by Wednesday, “dumpster fire” by Friday

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محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf

17h

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator.

Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.

It looks like Iran’s trading advice works:

And so this morning …

Please note: “we will conclude our ‘lovely’ stay in Iran”. That sounds like an intended TACO. Nice try.

Patarames @Pataramesh

6h

Maximum Pain Tactic:

Trump greenlighted a massive USraeli attack over the weekend against Iran, mobilizing all available airpower assets.

 The goal was to shock the population & force an  overreaction

 But as global markets open today, Iran did not enter the escalate to de-escalate game.

You don’t do that if cards & time are yours

…

I’m listening to Alastair Crooke right now and he’s saying Trump’s claim of negotiations and a new regime are simply not true. There are no negotiations. What happens, he says, is that the US attempts to send messages to Iran via Egypt or Pakistan or some other regional government. Sometimes Iran simply refuses to accept the message, at other times they send back a simple response: No! But there are no negotiations. In fact, Trump said last night: “We’re negotiating with [Iran] directly and indirectly.” Uh, why would you negotiate indirectly with a party with whom you are having direct negotiations??

Another attempt to gaslight the markets this morning:

Iran is simply conducting diplomacy among regional countries—and Pakistan has been supportive to Iran at times. Nothing has changed.

Professor Marandi sent a bit different response to Trump’s latest message, which gets to the heart of Trump’s panic:

Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi

52m

And we will destroy everything on the other side of the Persian Gulf, which will result in years of global economic depression.

S&P 500 is currently up, but Asia is reacting to the imminent crisis, the tsunami that will hit them first:

But this is by far the most interesting development today. Cheng Li-wun is the chair of the Kuomintang on Taiwan, which is currently the largest single party in Taiwan’s National Assembly:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

4h

Li-wun [i.e., Cheng] knows that Taiwan is facing down an unprecedented energy crisis. The only country that can credibly bail the island out is China. Big changes are coming.

Clash Report @clashreport

China’s Xi Jinping invited Cheng Li-wun, head of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, to visit China.

She accepted.

It’s the first such visit in about a decade and signals renewed China–KMT engagement.

This has to be causing alarms to go off in the White House, adding to the other reasons for panic. So much winning? Trumps says the world should be thanking him?

Sina Toossi @SinaToossi

17h

This trajectory is now unmistakable.

As Iran maintains its ability to fire back, the U.S./Israeli target set is widening from military sites to universities, factories, and residential areas.

This shift is arguably driven by the difficulty of decisively degrading Iran’s military capabilities.

Trita Parsi @tparsi

9h

“The nuclear fatwa is dead,” Trita Parsi said. “Elite opinion as well as public opinion has shifted dramatically on this, which shouldn’t be surprising since Iran has been bombed twice in the midst of negotiations by two nuclear-equipped states.”

Iran Observer @IranObserver0

52m

BREAKING

Iran has targeted Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline

The United Arab Emirates can no longer bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Only Saudi’s East-West Pipeline remains active

Palm Sunday Mass banned in Israel, but:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

6h

 Christians across Iraq mark Palm Sunday today, gathering in churches and streets to celebrate one of the holiest days in the Christian calendar.

Iraq is home to one of the world’s oldest Christian communities