Military Update: Houthis Expand War, Africa

I’ll try to keep this brief. All the news coming from Ukraine strongly suggests that the Ukrainian armed forces are being crushed. Nobody really knows how long this can continue.

On the Middle East front there have been two developments that may have some long term effects. The first is that Turkey is claiming to cut off all trade with Israel. The exact parameters of this are not known. By far, at least IMO, the most important relationship here is that Turkey serves as a transit point for oil to Israel that originates in Azerbaijan. Has that changed? I haven’t seen anything about that. Exactly what kind of games Erdogan is playing remains to be seen. He may be trying to placate Turkish public opinion, or it may be some other angle.

The other development in the Middle East is this:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

 The Houthis have announced that they are expanding the operation and will now also target ships in the Mediterranean Sea heading towards Israel.

If the Israeli enemy intends to launch an operation against Rafah, the Yemeni armed forces will impose comprehensive sanctions on all ships of companies that are related to supplying and entering Israeli ports, and will prevent all ships of these companies from passing through the Yemeni forces' area of ​​operations.

As a reminder, the Houthis have Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, capable of hitting targets in the Mediterranean.

@MenchOsint

1:24 PM · May 3, 2024

While these drones may not be capable of sinking large ships, this could have an effect on insurance rates and the willingness of shippers to place their ships in harm’s way. Zerohedge has an article about this development that includes some nice maps. Note that on the map that I’ve pasted in, the range of Houthi “missiles” is shown. I’m not sure whether that means “missiles” or drones or both:

Houthis Warn Drone & Missile Attack Coverage Expanding To Mediterranean Sea

Turning to Africa. It’s been some time since the government of Niger, having kicked the French out, also demanded that the US vacate its large drone base. This air base was in a very strategic location, providing intel coverage for a huge area of North Central Africa. Since then the US has been trying to persuade Niger to back off that demand—or something. Meanwhile, US forces were told to vacate Chad, and apparently are doing so. This has led to a rather interesting situation:

Russian Troops Enter Air Base Hosting US Soldiers In Post-Coup Niger

You can read the story for the details. US officials state that American and Russian forces are in separate “compounds” on the base and are not interacting. What’s going on?

My guess—and it’s only that—is that the US has delayed a withdrawal from Niger because it was looking for a place to redeploy its assets. A post at Rybar might explain where those US military assets may now be headed:

Rybar Force @rybar_force

The French media Jeune Afrique reported that during a meeting between the head of the US Africa Command @USAfricaCommand and Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara @AOuattara_PRCI , the parties agreed to establish an advanced base in Côte d'Ivoire to host the US contingent from Niger.

Earlier, the Nigerien authorities terminated military cooperation with the United States, after which the Pentagon was forced to look for new countries to deploy in the Sahel. Mauritania could have been one of the potential basing locations, as we wrote about earlier.

Now, the US is showing interest in those countries in the region that actively contribute to Western collective initiatives. In particular, during the coup in Niger, the Ivorian authorities supported the intervention of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

11:52 AM · May 3, 2024

And lastly: