Of course the really big story, yesterday and today, is the complete collapse of the Ukrainian defense at Avdeyevka. What I’m hearing and reading is that, although the Ukrainians claim they made a decision to abandon Avdeyevka for better defensive positions, the truth is that their forces were collapsing and soldiers were scrambling to escape. The decision was made to abandon as many as 2000 soldiers in the fortress city in order to try to extract thousands more—they had to cut their losses of manpower because there are no replacements and losses had already been extreme. Even at the cost of abandoning some of their best troops. That’s a very grim picture going forward.
Mikael Valtersson, a Swedish air defense officer, writes:
COMMENT UKRAINIAN TIREDNESS, FEB 17 2024
Read this letter from a tired Ukrainian soldier who fought in the 110th Brigade at the Zenit (former Air Defence Base) stronghold.
He tells about no rotation, high losses, tiredness , bad health etc. In general terms a unit on the verge of collapse even before the end game in Avdiivka.
If this is a general feeling among Ukrainian troops, their entire army might be on the verge of collapse. If morale starts to break, things might go fast. In 1917 the French army was on the verge of collapse, but Germany didn't discovery it and France survived. The Russian Empire wasn't as lucky as France and fell.
Ukraine hasn't any margins in the war. Even a moderate rebellion among the troops might be the tippning point. Resulting in a collapse of the frontline.
He then follows up with this (excerpt):
There is now a growing expectation for an all out offensive from the Russian side, all along the different frontlines. The meager reserves Ukraine has, must be husbanded well for such an eventuality. There is already a strong Russian push at the Kreminna, Bakhmut and South Donetsk fronts.
Large Russian forces are amassed at the Belgorod, Kupyansk and Zaporizhia fronts. All in all at least 150 000, maybe even 200 000, soldiers with lot of equipment. An activation of these frontlines would press Ukrainian defence forces to the uttermost. No wonder Ukraine must make territorial sacrifices to keep as many units combat worthy for the coming storm.
In line with Valtersson’s assessment, there’s been a fair amount of chatter over the last few days about the Russian preparations in the Zaporozhye direction (south). There are said to be four Russian armies in reserve there waiting for orders.
Russian sources report the “beginning of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye direction and the first successes near the villages of Rabotino and Verbovoye”
Regarding the Middle East we have this intriguing report—whether it’s true or is mongering of some sort, perhaps to get the spending bill passed, I can’t say:
BREAKING:
Iran has plans to transfer its most advanced Anti-Air systems To the Syrian & Lebanese Army.
Syrian Army in Deir al-Zour province are being trained to use Iran's Khordad-15 air defense system, equivalent to the U.S. Patriot system.
The system can engage 6 fighter-jets simultaneously from 120km.
Source: The Washington Institute http://t.me/megatron_ron
Note the red letters to the left, out over the Mediterranean: Potential border deployment of mobile A2AD systems (Anti-Access/Area Denial). Follow the link to read up on that concept.
The point of this, to my way of thinking, would be along these lines. The US and Israel are utterly dependent on air based attacks utilizing very expensive missiles and aircraft. Even our drones are super expensive. The Syrian and Lebanese forces would not need anything close to a 100% kill rate to discourage US/Israeli attacks.
It appears that escalation is gradually … escalating?
As the news of additional Russian military successes in Ukraine mounts, all of a sudden we are faced with Western media reports that Vladimir Putin has killed dissident Alexei Navalny in a Russian prison.
My first reaction is why? Why would Putin kill somebody who he didn't have to 'kill', because he is incarcerated.
Then I thought, why wouldn't Putin want to keep Navalny alive? Why wouldn't he want to show that Russia is not the United States, where politically embarrassing figures like Jeffrey Epstein die in prison. I wouldn't have thought Putin would want Navalny to die in prison where Western propagandists would certainly claim that he was killed by Putin?
Then I thought, "Who is this Navalny"? Was he an idealistic opponent of the Putin regime, appealing to Putin's opponents' better angels? It didn't take much googling to discover that Navalny did not seem to be an important political figure in Russia itself, commanding a very small percentage of support in Russia...in fact much less support than some other opponents of Putin's policies, who apparently are not in prison.
Then I discovered that Navalny seems to have been a pal of former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul. McFaul beatified Navalny in a Washington Post opinion piece yesterday. You can read it here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/17/navalny-friendship-activism-heroism-mcfaul/.
Was McFaul's friend, Alexei Navalny, a fiction? A creation of the US Deep State?
So I asked myself, with the Washington Post's history of being the mouthpiece-of-record for the Deep State, should I just accept McFaul's opinion or should I look around a little bit more?
It didn't take me long to find Aaron Maté's opinion of Navalny, which is quite a bit different than McFaul's. Now Maté seems to be an honest fellow, in large measure because it seems to me it takes quite a bit of courage to stand up to the Deep State, which Maté has been doing a lot of for the past few years.
According to Maté, Novalny was not quite as nice a fellow as McFaul says he is. For one Maté says Navalny has compared Muslims to cockroaches, which doesn't seem like a nice thing for a Western-friendly democratic activist to say. https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1758504812339966162
For another thing Navalny is apparently on record asking a British MI6 officer for $10–20 million to orchestrate a coup in Russia. Attempted coups are generally frowned upon by the targets of the attempted coup. Is this is why he was arrested and thrown in jail in Russia? See: https://twitter.com/GabeZZOZZ/status/1758567066796187960. Is this true? I am not sure I've read an objective account in the American press of why Navalny was thrown in a Russian jail.
Then I read that Navalny had gone on a hunger strike in the Russian prison, and his health was impaired. May he have died of complications resulting from self-imposed starvation?
Then I note that President Joseph R. Biden of the United States of America has found it necessary to comment as follows:
Navalny "bravely stood up to the corruption, the violence, and the — the — all the — all the bad things that the Putin government was doing. In response, Putin had him poisoned. He had him arrested. He had him prosecuted for fabricated crimes. He sentenced him to prison. He was held in isolation. Even all that didn’t stop him from calling out Putin’s lies. Even in prison, he was a powerful voice of the truth, which is kind of amazing when you think about it."
Putin did all this? Putin, himself? Yes, Biden's comments are amazing when I think about them, since, as far as I can tell, they are all Biden's unsubstantiated opinion constituting an ad hominem attack on Biden's mortal enemy, Vladimir Putin. Just one more propagandistic smear against Putin?
Honestly, I don't know what the whole truth is. I'm just having trouble buying the version we're selling. As usual.
Quick! Get out that verdict in NYC to knock this bad news from Ukraine out of the news cycle - get that Judge Eggmoron’s handler, I mean clerk, on the phone STAT!