Of course the really big story, yesterday and today, is the complete collapse of the Ukrainian defense at Avdeyevka. What I’m hearing and reading is that, although the Ukrainians claim they made a decision to abandon Avdeyevka for better defensive positions, the truth is that their forces were collapsing and soldiers were scrambling to escape. The decision was made to abandon as many as 2000 soldiers in the fortress city in order to try to extract thousands more—they had to cut their losses of manpower because there are no replacements and losses had already been extreme. Even at the cost of abandoning some of their best troops. That’s a very grim picture going forward.
Mikael Valtersson, a Swedish air defense officer, writes:
COMMENT UKRAINIAN TIREDNESS, FEB 17 2024
Read this letter from a tired Ukrainian soldier who fought in the 110th Brigade at the Zenit (former Air Defence Base) stronghold.
He tells about no rotation, high losses, tiredness , bad health etc. In general terms a unit on the verge of collapse even before the end game in Avdiivka.
If this is a general feeling among Ukrainian troops, their entire army might be on the verge of collapse. If morale starts to break, things might go fast. In 1917 the French army was on the verge of collapse, but Germany didn't discovery it and France survived. The Russian Empire wasn't as lucky as France and fell.
Ukraine hasn't any margins in the war. Even a moderate rebellion among the troops might be the tippning point. Resulting in a collapse of the frontline.
He then follows up with this (excerpt):
There is now a growing expectation for an all out offensive from the Russian side, all along the different frontlines. The meager reserves Ukraine has, must be husbanded well for such an eventuality. There is already a strong Russian push at the Kreminna, Bakhmut and South Donetsk fronts.
Large Russian forces are amassed at the Belgorod, Kupyansk and Zaporizhia fronts. All in all at least 150 000, maybe even 200 000, soldiers with lot of equipment. An activation of these frontlines would press Ukrainian defence forces to the uttermost. No wonder Ukraine must make territorial sacrifices to keep as many units combat worthy for the coming storm.
In line with Valtersson’s assessment, there’s been a fair amount of chatter over the last few days about the Russian preparations in the Zaporozhye direction (south). There are said to be four Russian armies in reserve there waiting for orders.
Russian sources report the “beginning of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye direction and the first successes near the villages of Rabotino and Verbovoye”
Regarding the Middle East we have this intriguing report—whether it’s true or is mongering of some sort, perhaps to get the spending bill passed, I can’t say:
BREAKING:
Iran has plans to transfer its most advanced Anti-Air systems To the Syrian & Lebanese Army.
Syrian Army in Deir al-Zour province are being trained to use Iran's Khordad-15 air defense system, equivalent to the U.S. Patriot system.
The system can engage 6 fighter-jets simultaneously from 120km.
Source: The Washington Institute http://t.me/megatron_ron
Note the red letters to the left, out over the Mediterranean: Potential border deployment of mobile A2AD systems (Anti-Access/Area Denial). Follow the link to read up on that concept.
The point of this, to my way of thinking, would be along these lines. The US and Israel are utterly dependent on air based attacks utilizing very expensive missiles and aircraft. Even our drones are super expensive. The Syrian and Lebanese forces would not need anything close to a 100% kill rate to discourage US/Israeli attacks.
It appears that escalation is gradually … escalating?
There must come a point when the Ukrainian front-liners realise that enough is enough. They've fought with exemplary courage and endurance, but it's now a lost cause. Further resistance just means more pointless slaughter and greater Russian victories. Who wants to die for Zelensky and Vicky?
Escalation, like bankruptcy. Slowly at first then all at once.