Military Reality vs. Political Reality
I’m going to do something I don’t usually do and embed a video from The Duran. It’s an excellent discussion and, starting from the 5:00 minute mark, begins with a discussion that we’ve been having here. What I’ll do is first provide a summary transcript of what I think are the highlights. The part at the beginning, which reflects what I’ve been saying about internal US divisions over the war on Russia, are pretty much a transcript. The further it goes, the more it tends toward summary.
[5:10]
The really big drama, the very interesting thing, is what is going on in the US. There are clearly two factions at work. We've now had a whole series of reports, on the one hand, that the uniformed military, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, before Christmas told the White House: The war is going to deteriorate very soon, we need to negotiate some way out of this. There was a very important report by the Rand Corporation which said that it is NOT in the US's interests to wage a protracted war in Ukraine, that it's getting more dangerous for the US every single day. If you read the report carefully, its language doesn't want to stray from the orthodoxies, but you can clearly see that behind it all there are clearly concerns that Ukraine is going to lose the war, that there's going to be a debacle, and that the US is over-invested in Ukraine.
Then you had another report by the CSIS. It's a big report looking at the US military industrial economy. It shows that the US is depleting its weapons stocks, its military is running down, it can't keep up with Ukraine's demands for 155mm shells, it's also running out of HIMARS missiles, all kinds of other things. So the military are extremely worried.
There's the other side. And this is the civilian leadership in the Pentagon, also people like Lloyd Austin, who is clearly (despite his military background) a political appointee, and the Neocons--who are both in the Pentagon and also in the State Department: Blinken, Victoria Nuland, other officials like that. They are dead against any de-escalation of the war. They, I am sure, are giving Ukraine the opposite advice [from the professional military's advice]. Fight for every inch of ground, keep the war going, tanks are on the way, ATACMS missiles and fighter jets will soon follow. ...
You're starting to see some push and pull. The military are concerned because they see how the military thing is going. They're more concerned about China and the fact that the military is being run down. The Neocons are still obsessed with Russia.
[11:00]
The governments are having to hide the military reality from the public because they fear the political reality--the public doesn't want war with Russia.
[13:45]
We're seeing an extraordinary inflation of radical language, especially from countries like Poland, even as other militaries are becoming increasingly alarmed--the Germans for sure, but even the UK.
This article will provide details regarding the thinking within the German military, such as it is:
Re the British situation:
[16:45]
Eastern Europe--especially Poland and the Baltics--are being led into a catastrophic situation. They're pushing for more escalation, the breakup of Russia, seizing Russian resources. Russia is gradually responding by downgrading diplomatic relations, signaling that they're finished with dialog. Do the citizens of these countries understand where that's heading?
The leaders of these countries obviously know that the militaries in other countries are getting increasingly unhappy. Poland and the Baltics must be petrified that the US and Germany will end up seeking a compromise with Russia. Poland and the Baltics have over depended on the US to achieve their own objectives--objectives that are WAY beyond their power. The US is far away with interests all around the world and could one decide: You, Baltics, just don't mean that much to us. Poland is much bigger than the Baltics, but the dynamics are the same--especially if Russia and Germany come to an understanding. The Poles don't know how to draw back and are taking increasingly reckless steps, antagonizing the Germans in particular.
[24:45]
As Russia pushes further West, the hardliners and Poland will seek more escalation--the drive will be for US troops on the ground.
[28:00]
Ultimately, it's about trying to lock the Americans in so deep that they can't pull back. The Poles, the Balts, the Ukrainians, the German Greens, the Brits all want that. Get American boots on the ground.
The leaders in these countries are so insane that they actually seem to think that they will be the ones who will defeat Russia. For the US to pull out, all it will take is a little more de-dollarization. Once the US no longer has the capability to just print money they'll be gone. The US will have to focus on America. That day is coming, and it's coming fast.
[33:00]
All this is leading to an existential crisis--not primarily for Russia but for Eastern Europe and, arguably, for all NATO. The time window depends on dollar supremacy and continued US willingness to subordinate its overriding strategic interests to Polish and Baltic obsessions. That time window is small and it's closing. But they're heightening their rhetoric.
From this point they proceed to a takedown of the buffoonish behavior of Boris Johnson.
Regarding de-dollarization, which is proceeding apace, I want to recommend this article by MK Bhadrakumar. Give a thought to what he’s saying—not only India but our erstwhile ally Pakistan is looking to Russia:
Pakistan’s acute energy crisis is the immediate backdrop against which Foreign Minister Bilawal Zardari’s forthcoming talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow today need to be understood.
LOTS more at the link.
Of course, such a mega project will raise hiccups in Washington. It comes as no surprise that the US Undersecretary of state Victoria Nuland (who midwifed the 2014 regime change in Kiev and openly gloats over the sabotage and destruction of Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline) is arriving in Delhi this week.
Washington is upset that Western sanctions pressure on Russian oil exports has led to a significant strengthening of India’s energy ties with Russia. Not only is Russian crude sold to India twice as cheap as world analogues, but the Russian production of petroleum products is actually transferred to India.
After the entry into force of the European embargo on Russian oil products w.e.f February 5, India is set to become the main supplier of refined Russian oil to Europe with a potential export turnover in tens of billions of dollars. (Please see Russia gives India the supply of Europe with petroleum products, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Jan. 16, 2023) Exports of diesel fuel from India are already increasing.
Technically, this does not violate EU sanctions against Russia. But it annoys the Biden Administration, which had anticipated that there would be potential to boost US exports to replace Russian petroleum products in the lucrative European market.
The US will be uneasy about a “gas union” betwixt Russia, Pakistan and India. But India has vital interests in safeguarding its energy security. The western hegemony in the world order is ending. Russia’s “gas union” in Central Asia signals that the time has come for regional states in South Asia to respond with a unity of purpose.
All of this will affect US strategy virtually everywhere in the world. It was bound to happen sooner or later. The Neocons have ensured that it will happen sooner rather than later.
We in the USA have enough of our own Home Grown Lunatics In Charge (HGLIC's), who threaten to destroy our nation from within. Do we really need Foreign Madmen In Charge (FMIC's), of countries that have very little (or none at all) strategic significance to the USA dragging us into war? Oh what fools we were to have allowed NATO to continue to exist after it's purpose was fulfilled!!!
LOL! A lot of Tories would like to kill Boris, too.