Middle East War Roundup, 10/22/23
Let’s start with this remarkable video. What it shows is the divide within Israeli society, which also extends to the IDF. Polls show that near 80% of Israelis blame Netanyahu—video at the link:
Iran Observer @IranObserver0
An Israeli reservist soldier shouts at Netanyahu while he is at a military base in the Gaza Strip:
“My friends were killed because of you, you sabotaged the state.”
3:04 AM · Oct 22, 2023
That’s a bad look for a military, but also for a government at war. BTW, what kind of military discipline is this?
Doug Macgregor has been warning for days of the danger of a Middle East that is united against the US. Usually he mentions Turkey, but:
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor
FACT: If Gaza is subjected to the kind of punishment that Netanyahu wants to put out, the Egyptians are gonna have a tough time staying out of it.
If they get involved in it, your gonna see everyone pile on.
We do not have the forces or the means to solve this.
6:53 PM · Oct 21, 2023
This won’t help:
OSINTdefender @sentdefender
Egyptian Media is now reporting that at least 9 Egyptian Soldiers of the Border Guard Corps were Injured by the “Accidental-Firing” of an Israeli Tank towards a Border Outpost near the City of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, with the Injured Soldiers being Transported to El Arish Military Hospital by Ambulance in various Conditions ranging from Minor to Serious.

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11:04 AM · Oct 22, 2023
Now, Macgregor again. If you think the tweet is hard hitting, follow the link for the 4 minute video, in which Macgregor says that “cleaning out Gaza” is “Mission Impossible” and that “Israel is on a path to suicide.” Our obligation is “to save Israel from itself.” He urges negotiations NOW:
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor
The United States Armed Forces that existed in 1991 do not exist anymore.
We have a weak bench.
The Army can't recruit.
America Is structured for one major war and one contingency.
The truth is right now we're not even structured for one major war.
We've dismantle the ability to fight through pointless wars of occupation.
We don't want a war!
5:22 AM · Oct 22, 2023
But avoid hysteria ginned up by the usual suspects. Ask yourselves: Why are countries turning from the US to China? Is it something we’ve done? Something we’ve been doing? Military muscle flexing is rarely, if ever, the long term solution. Smart powers avoid that.
The Sirius Report @thesiriusreport
As ever be informed and not entertained.
Yes China had warships in the Gulf.
But the why is important.
They were undertaking planned drills with Oman.
6:30 AM · Oct 22, 2023
And because everything going on is interconnected …
Brian Berletic @BrianJBerletic
NYT op-ed argues losing to China over Taiwan would be the greatest shock of all for US empire. He never ask WHY the US is pursuing empire, or explores the possibility of not fighting China over an island the US officially recognizes as Chinese territory in the 1st place ...
Next, Armchair Warlord’s intro to a long thread that takes off from the USS Carney’s shootdown of cruise missiles and drones. There are all sorts of factors involved here, but running out of anti-missile missiles is a real possibility—although I’m cautiously skeptical that USS Carney is low on ammo. But who’s giving deployment orders in DC? There are lots of pictures:
Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW
Excellent thread pointing out that the USS Carney - after one engagement with Yemeni missiles and drones apparently heading to Israel - is likely "red" on antiaircraft ammunition right now, with no easy way to resupply.
Burke-class destroyers have 96 VLS cells, which sounds like a lot until you: (1) realize many of those are going to be loaded with surface attack rather than AA missiles; (2) start having to fight off modern swarm drones.
* in fairness ESSM can be quad-packed in VLS tubes but it's much shorter-ranged
The Navy has, moreover, been blowing off this well-known problem for years now, pushing questions of reloading VLS launchers in a war zone at sea into the indefinite future to the point they actually deleted their original Reagan-era solution - a folding crane tucked into the VLS silo - from newer destroyers.
First of the 16 tweets:
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) @mercoglianos
1/USS Carney Shot Down More Missiles, Drones Over Longer Period Carney's engagement in the #RedSea highlights some issues for the @DeptofDefense & @USNavy in modern naval warfare.
Finally, a long tweet from a Russian general that discusses the deployment of MiG 31s armed with hypersonic Kinzhals over the Black Sea. The thing to remember about this is that the deployment of these MiGs—presumably on a rotating basis—is likely a signal that Russia can launch at a moment’s notice. And Putin specifically stated—not as a threat, but as a fact—that they can reach our carriers. He leads off with more general considerations:
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
Andrey Gurulev, Lieutenant General:
Israeli bombings have no effect militarily. Armed people in Palestine are in shelters, civilians are dying in residential buildings. We went through this in Syria, when in Damascus, for example, they sit in underground tunnels and come out only when necessary. Hamas prepared 100%, it was not without reason that they did this, they have reserves of weapons and food.
Israel strikes, destroy buildings, Hamas can immediately mine it carefully, it will be a good fortified area, ideal.
I’ve seen this point made repeatedly by experienced military types like Macgregor: Destroying buildings blocks tanks—needed to support infantry—from moving and provides excellent defensive positions for defenders. This Russian general gets into that shortly:
The Israelis are shown in columns on tanks, on infantry fighting vehicles, what are they waiting for? Waiting for drones to fly over them?
We went through this during a special military operation. Tanks in urban areas are practically ineffective. The main thing here is the action of the assault troops. What is this? Remember how they took Artemovsk (Bakhmut). Remember what losses there were. Something similar awaits the Israelis; it won’t work out otherwise here.
If we look more broadly, the Americans are trying to drag the Middle East into war; apparently, they decided not to stand ceremoniously with Israel; in this case, the damage to Israel would be unacceptable. When they say that today some missiles were brought into Iran, I assure you such statements are a fallacy, because in military everything planned long ago, determined all the targets.
The visit of our leader Vladimir Putin to China, the Minister of Foreign Affairs to the DPRK (North Korea), the president’s visit to our command post in Rostov,- are synchronized events. The President heard the report of the Chief of the General Staff, probably the district commanders, personally listened to the reports in order to understand what problems there are and ways to solve them. I think the main topic was the presence of two aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean. On board these ships, according to my calculations, there are approximately 750-800 Tomahawk missiles, which cover a decent amount of the territory of the Russian Federation. That's a decent amount of power. Our President immediately decided to put the Mig-31 with Kinzhal missiles on combat duty. For some reason, everyone imagines that one plane with one Kinzhal will fly somewhere, will fly along the Black Sea, but everything is much more global. Firstly, this is the use of all reconnaissance systems linked into a single information system with the issuance of specific target instructions to control points. If an aircraft enters the airspace of the Black Sea, then it must have a support echelon protecting it from enemy air attacks, air defense systems, and everything else. This is a global set of measures to deter the American aggressor from thinking of attacking the territory of the Russian Federation. In front of us are two aircraft carrier groups, equipped to the teeth, capable of hitting targets on the territory of our country, should we just stand there and pick our noses? We must react normally. Yes, the Kinzhal missile itself is extremely effective, capable of hitting any US warship, that’s true.
If the entire Middle East is drawn into the war, aircraft carrier groups try to strike the territory of Iran, then Iran will not remain silent, they have targets ready, all critical objects, they will attack them in different ways, despite the Iron Dome and everything else.
Drones and missiles from Yemen are not a provocation, but reconnaissance in force, revealing the ability of an aircraft carrier strike group to destroy an entire aircraft. They will see what happened, how and what. The SMO taught that you can shoot down 10 UAVs, you can shoot down 20, but when 100 are flying, then even modern systems are not able to resist. Therefore, America is hiding an aircraft carrier group behind Cyprus.
1/2
Your mention of the USS Carney and the SMO covers probably the most critical of all issues should the dimwits decide to go for War in the Middle East.
The issue of ammo.
The West has no industrial capacity to replenish stocks. The west has depleted a lot of stock by arming Ukraine. The potential combatants in the ME war are stocked up, with access to industry.
Its going to hell very soon, and I don't see how Israel can survive when they can be completely isolated by geography alone.
And If Egypt enters into the fray, the Suez Canal is closed. Hows that going to go for global trade? Lots of repercussions here that I don't think many have thought through.
"We don't want a war!" So sayeth Mac Gregor, the good Colonel. Indeed "we" don't want war, however, what "we" want is completely irrelevant to "our" SNOG* . You see, SNOG is publicly most concerned with "white supremacy" , when in fact "we" actually are subjected to bribe supremacy. Bribe supremacy makes SNOG very powerful and happy, while "we" groan, moan, mumble.
*SNOG = Satanic Neocon Occupied Government