Middle East Status 3/14/24

Where do matters stand on the Middle East front of the American Empire’s war on the world? Megatron has put up a tweet that raises interesting issues and my be a good place to start.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 Axios claims that 'а public clash between Biden and Netanyahu after a senior Israeli official accused the Biden administration of trying to undermine Netanyahu's government'.

This is definitely not true and this is a made-up drama, all for the purpose of Biden apparently distancing himself from Netanyahu, in order to win back the lost votes before this year's election, which he lost due to the massacre of children in Gaza.

Netanyahu can literally do whatever he wants, and he has already shown that.

The problem why Netanyahu still cannot decide on an attack on Rafah is that his army is broken and demoralized, and in order to make such a move he must mobilize additionally, as the Israeli media already wrote that the mobilization of 14,000 new personnel is planned.

Netanyahu is now in deep trouble and dilemmas because he failed to finish the war against Hamas as he promised and Hamas still holds most of Gaza, while huge losses continue in the IDF.

On the other hand, the threats to attack and invade Lebanon are just a bluff, because Netanyahu knows that it is already impossible and defeat is certain.

Some people scoffed when I wrote a few months ago that Hamas would cripple the Israeli army, and here after 5 months Hamas is firmly in Gaza.

http://t.me/megatron_ron

8:42 AM · Mar 14, 2024

We can break this down into two parts. First, Megatron asserts that Israel remains firmly in control of DC. Any hint that DC has broken free from Israeli control is a PR stunt perpetrated to gaslight Americans who are repulsed by US support for Israeli genocide. This, of course, is being done with a view to the November elections. The Dem primaries, which should have been pro forma affairs, instead have shown surprising strength for the “uncommitted” vote.

Support for Megatron’s view came yesterday in a video discussion between Danny Davis and Matt Hoh. Davis reported that the “floating pier”—to get humanitarian aid into Gaza—that Zhou proposed in the SOTU was in fact Netanyahu’s proposal. Zhou was simply following Netanyahu’s instructions to present this smokescreen to buy time while gaslighting ordinary Americans. How does that work? According to Davis and Hoh, it will take 2 months for such a pier to get built. That’s two more months for Israel to kill civilians, including women and children, and to try to force Palestinians to leave their land. That’s the only plan left in view of Israel’s military failure. Thus, coupled with the Zhou regime’s repeated refusals to countenance any red lines with regard to weapons support for Israeli genocide, statements like this one must be regarded as more gaslighting. The electoral concerns are genuine, but should not be confused with an intent to enforce any red lines:

zerohedge @zerohedge

SCHUMER SAYS ISRAELI PM NETANYAHU IS 'MAJOR OBSTACLE TO PEACE' WHO HAS 'ALL TOO FREQUENTLY BOWED TO THE DEMANDS OF EXTREMISTS'

9:37 AM · Mar 14, 2024

Megatron’s second point is that Israel has suffered another military defeat in Gaza and that, in light of that defeat, all the claims of a coming invasion of Lebanon should be regarded as a bluff. This assertion is in stark contrast with, for example, the views of such as Doug Macgregor and Alastair Crooke who. Within the past week, Macgregor maintained that Israel will invade Lebanon and that the US will support Israel with “strike packages”. The result will be a high likelihood of the US becoming involved in a war with Iran which would lead to unpredictable but likely disastrous (for the US) consequences.

I’m going to cautiously side with Megatron here. I believe Macgregor’s view is based on Israeli troop movements toward the Lebanon border. Crooke argues that Hezbollah has created what is effectively a DMZ or security zone in northern Israel by forcing the evacuation of Israelis from the border area. Therefore, he maintains, Israel has no choice but to try to reverse this situation by the only means available—military means. My counter argument runs along these lines. Israel is in a no win position. It cannot win a ground war against a Hezbollah that is far stronger than the Hezbollah that defeated Israel in 2006. That means that another defeat would have far more serious consequences for Israel than accepting the de facto DMZ—either alternative is a defeat with strategic consequences; it’s a question of which would be worse. I’m guessing that Israel, having already suffered military defeat in Gaza and facing an unraveling of the entire region, will attempt to tough this crisis out while waiting for the American Empire to somehow fix the region. That boils down to continued genocide in Gaza coupled with continued air strikes in Lebanon—which will accomplish little to nothing for the big picture.

Against Macgregor’s view that the US will plunge ahead and embroil itself in a regional Middle East war—or even allow such a conflict to broaden into a global war—I would maintain that all indicators are the the US is very leery of such an escalation. We have seen reports that the US is attempting to buy off Iran by removing sanctions. The failure to break the Houthi blockade is another warning sign that must be flashing red inside Deep State circles. Even those people know that things could get much, much worse. For example:

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - -- @GeromanAT

correct - supplying weapons and ammo - including training and even some help here and there directly there does not make you part of the conflict - right NATO?

Quote

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

Imagine if Russia supplies hypersonic missiles to Yemen to defend themselves by for example striking London - Why not? Convinced by our moral superiority, we have thrown away all the rules based on reciprocity. We are now in a new Cold War without rules https://timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-houthis-successfully-test-hypersonic-missile-plan-to-begin-production/…

7:07 AM · Mar 14, 2024

Obviously the Houthis haven’t developed hypersonic missiles, but just as obviously there are no readily discernible limits to what weapons systems they might acquire. As Geroman and Diesen pointedly note. This new development—whatever the substance, it’s a least a warning that the Houthis probably possess weapons that they have yet to deploy in actual combat—should be read in light of this fascinating article:

US Had Secret Talks with Iran About Houthi Red Sea Shipping Attacks in January

As you’ll see, this appeared at naked capitalism this morning. It’s a digest cum commentary on an article that appeared at FT. There’s much that remains speculative here, but here are some notable facts:

The Financial Times has a curious planted story as its lead offering: US held secret talks with Iran over Red Sea attacks. The reason this piece was almost certainly planted, as opposed to leaked, is that it names the names of the participants. … the discussions were indirect: Oman officials carried messages between the two teams. ...

... [The FT article is] surprisingly even handed by Western media standards in its treatment of Iran, which is not to say that it also does not have some key omissions.

The article describes how it was a White House, not State Department, team went to the Middle East in January. Iran’s envoy was its deputy foreign minister, who also handles Iran’s nuclear negotiations. The meetings focused on the US’ key desire, that Someone Do Something about Houthis shelling of Red Sea cargoes, … Recall, which this story does not mention, that it was also in January the US took the stunningly embarrassing or presumptuous move of approaching China to see if China could pressure Iran to leash and collar the Houthis. ...

At a minimum, this chronicle of events certainly portrays the White House, i.e., the National Security Council, as verging on desperate to somehow get the Houthis to stop their blockade. That attempt fell flat on its face. The article goes on to recount that the various militias that had been attacking US bases in Syraq have stood down for the time being. The reality, however, is that those attacks—while a PR problem for the Zhou regime—pale in terms of real world significance with the Houthi blockade. That continues with no slackening. What that suggests is simply that the attritional nature of the conflict is the baseline, and the pinprick attacks on bases take a back seat for the time being. The article ends (I’ve translated it into proper English):

However, the article also confirms that [neither] the Biden Administration [nor] Iran [] want the conflict in Gaza to escalate. However, the US still acts if that can be achieved by trying to manage Israel’s opponents, as opposed to putting the kibosh on Israel’s genocidal campaign.

That seems correct to me. As Danny Davis and Matt Hoh said yesterday, the Zhou regime cannot possibly do without the Israel Lobby’s money, so it’s attempting to “manage” the civilized world that is repulsed by Israel’s genocide and US complicity. That management takes place on the foreign front but, perhaps most importantly, on the domestic front. But the key dynamic here, as it seems to me, is that Iran sees that time and attrition are on its side. For that reason escalation is pointless—or at least deprecated for the time being. The American Empire finds itself in the same corner—painted in—with Israel. Continued attrition is clearly unacceptable, but escalation could bring sudden and catastrophic consequences.

In the meantime, Israel has ordered its lackeys in our Congress to escalate their war on our constitutional order—and they have dutifully complied:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:

 Major US Jewish group backs bipartisan bill that could see TikTok banned - The Times of Israel

Jewish Federations of North America says it supports the proposed law due to concerns of antisemitism proliferating on the platform.

One of the most prominent Jewish groups in the country has thrown its support behind a fast-advancing bill that could lead to the massively popular video app TikTok being banned in the United States.

Politicians backing the bill, who include leaders from both parties, have centered their criticism of TikTok on national security concerns related to the app’s Chinese ownership and data collection practices.

Which is pure, cynical gaslighting.

Jewish Federations of North America, representing hundreds of organized Jewish communities, said its support for the bill is rooted in concerns about antisemitism on the platform. The Jewish Federations and the Anti-Defamation League have accused TikTok of allowing antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment to run rampant.

“The single most important issue to our Jewish communities today is the dramatic rise in antisemitism,” JFNA wrote in an official letter to Congress. “Our community understands that social media is a major driver of the drive in antisemitism and that TikTok is the worst offender by far.”

But understand that anti-Semitism is equated with any criticism of Israel—not hatred of Jews as such. This is a naked attempt by our rulers to shut down public debate and the flow of information.