Middle East Roundup 12/17/23
Yesterday I cited the headline making part of the Harvard/Harris poll:
Majority of Americans 18-24 think Israel should 'be ended and given back to the Palestinians.'
The survey, conducted this week by Harvard-Harris polling, found 51% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 said they believed the long-term answer to the Israel-Palestinian conflict was for "Israel to be ended and given back to the Palestinians.
Only 32% said they believed in a two-state solution, and just 17% said other Arab states should be asked to absorb Palestinian populations against whom Israel is currently carrying out ethnic cleansing.
Today, Zerohedge has a lengthy exposition and discussion of the entire poll results:
What it boils down to is that there’s a huge divide in opinion about Israel that manifests along strictly predictable generational lines. Oldies (65+) almost unanimously favorable toward Israel, but younger cohorts become progressively more evenly divided—with the youngest (18-24) heavily negative. It still results in a danger signal for Dems, since their base skews young.
There is some nuance in the results, so follow the link if you’re interested. One thing lacking is the question of how strongly the opinions are held—there appears to be some softness when it comes to whether we need to just let it continue or to push for negotiations. That should become apparent as time goes on. Another area of softness has to do with funding the war on Palestinians, with only 53% favoring the “aid package” for Israel. Finally, only 25% of respondents claimed to be following the war “very closely”, while 44% said they were following the war “somewhat closely.” There’s a fair amount of wiggle room in those responses, so we’ll need to keep an eye on changes over time.
Another frustrating aspect of the poll is that, if there is a demographic breakdown—race, religion, ethnicity—you’ll have to dig for it more zealously than I was willing to do.
An interesting polling question might have been: Should Israel make Gaza look like Auschwitz? Unfortunately that wasn’t asked.
BREAKING:
The Jerusalem Post: "Israel should make Gaza look like Auschwitz - council head" "David Azoulai, head of the Metula Council, proposed sending all Gazans to refugee camps in Lebanon and flattening the whole Strip so it becomes an empty museum like Auschwitz." No words ...
Metula is a pretty tiny place. Still, the JPost thought this creep’s comment was noteworthy.
Meanwhile, all eyes—or 25% of eyes, for sure, judging from Harvard/Harris—are on the Red Sea:
Alex Christoforou @AXChristoforou
Something big is going to happen in the Red Sea.
Unsurprisingly, speculation is that the USS Eisenhower was withdrawn from the Persian Gulf to respond to the Yemen area. Commenters to the tweet above suggest that the Houthis have been deliberately baiting the US into a response, setting a trap. Time will tell! Meanwhile, for all intents and purposes the Suez Canal has been shut down.
Iran Observer @IranObserver0
BREAKING
You can now finally say that the suez canal is out of service
Hapag-Lloyd, the world's fifth largest container shipping company in the world, has halted its activities in the Red Sea.
MSC, the largest shipping company, and Maersk, the second largest, have also announced that they wish to avoid the Red Sea.
We can expect total disruption to logistics lines and a massive increase in the price of consumer goods.
This is because the shipping companies will be passing on the extra transport costs to the consumer.
The Houthis say they’re determined:
Iran Observer @IranObserver0
BREAKING
The US will announce a coalition called "Operation Prosperity Guardian" to deter and attack the Houthis
Ansarullah has responded by declaring that it is ready to fight this most honourable battle in history with 2 million troops and the destruction of Western ships and their bases in the region.
Hmmmm. 2 million troops won’t do the trick against naval ships. The questions are 1) how good are their anti-shipping missiles, and 2) how good are their air defenses?
There are these claims, but I’ve seen the claims of Houthis downing Saudi F-15s challenged. Regardless, this could be dicey, as the Houthis are better equipped than even Hezbollah. The objective is to open the strait to commercial traffic, but inducing shippers to return may not be easy. How do you insure them that the Houthis are out of drones/missiles or fight? Could be tricky.
Readers who have been subjected to standard Zionist propaganda will be familiar with the crazy—or lying—claims: Palestine was empty and, anyway, there’s no such thing as Palestinians. Sheldon Richman documents that these claims were debunked back in the 19th century by a leading figure of Cultural Zionism—as opposed to the Political Zionism that we’re mostly all familiar with. Very interesting history:
Ahad Ha’Am’s Prophetic Warning about Political Zionism
Ukrainian-born Asher Zvi Hirsch Ginsberg (1856-1927), whose pen name was Ahad Ha’Am (Hebrew for one of the people), was a proponent of Spiritual, or Cultural, Zionism, which made him a rival to Theodor Herzl and Political Zionism, the movement dedicated to creating a nation-state in Palestine for all Jewish people worldwide. Ahad Ha’Am remains relevant to understanding the roots of the conflict in Palestine and Israel that has cost so many innocent lives. Hans Kohn, a Bohemian-born American writer, shed light on Ahad Ha’Am’s thinking about the “Arab problem” for Herzl’s movement in “Zion and the Jewish National Idea,” published in Menorah Journal, Autumn-Winter 1958. (The journal ceased publication in 1962.) Here’s part of what Kohn wrote. Pay close attention to the quotes from Ahad Ha’Am:
In 1891 Ahad Ha-‘Am laid his finger on the problem which, for practical and ethical reasons alike, was the fundamental though neglected problem of Zionism in Palestine — the Arab problem. To the eyes of most Zionists, the land of their forefathers appeared empty, waiting for the return of the dispersed descendants as if history had stood still for two thousand years. From 1891 on Ahad Ha-‘Am stressed that Palestine was not only a small land but not an empty one… He pointed out that there was little untilled soil in Palestine, except for stony hills and sand dunes. He warned that the Jewish settlers must under no circumstances arouse the wrath of the natives by ugly actions; must meet them rather in the friendly spirit of respect. “Yet what do our brethren do in Palestine? Just the very opposite! Serfs they were in the lands of the Diaspora and suddenly they find themselves in freedom, and this change has awakened in them an inclination to despotism. They treat the Arabs with hostility and cruelty, and even boast of these deeds; and nobody among us opposes this despicable and dangerous inclination.” That was written in 1891 when the Zionist settlers formed a tiny minority in Palestine. “We think,” Ahad Ha-‘Am warned, “that the Arabs are all savages who live like animals and do not understand what is happening around. This is, however, a great error.”
This error unfortunately has persisted ever since. Ahad Ha-‘Am did not cease to warn against it, not only for the sake of the Arabs but for the sake of Judaism and Zion. He remained faithful to his ethical standards to the end. …
…
And finally:
Earlier this week a coalition of settler organizations - generously funded by the state of #Israel - held the 'Practical Preparation for #Gaza Settlement Conference.' We would be mistaken to dismiss these ideas as fringe, as those are the political forces that managed to colonize and annex the West Bank.
Following the conference, ads were taken out stating "Gaza is the Land of Israel! Fight. Liberate. Settle." Those interested are invited to call a registration hotline for re-established settlements in Gaza.
Harei Zahav (Golden Mountains), a settlement development enterprise is advertising for #Gaza settlements: "a house on the beach is not a dream! We have begun clearing rubble and fending off squatters."
“Squatters” = Palestinian residents. What, you thought they’d be acknowledged as owners and compensated?
They name half a dozen re-established and new #Israeli settlements, and show their approximate location throughout occupied #Gaza. While this is a media stunt it captures a deep sentiment favouring territorial acquisition and colonization at the expanse of #Palestinians.
• • •
Haven't heard much of anything from Egypt's perspective on the reduced traffic in the Suez canal. I know when I worked in Panama a few years ago the cost for large container vessels was ~$300K each transit payable via wire transfer to the government of Panama. One would assume Egypt's fees would be similar if not much higher and with loss of revenue from shipments through the canal one would wonder why they haven't been more vocal/helpful.
RedState is saying that Austin is going to announce the formation of a coalition to maintain shipping lines in the Red Sea. What could possibly go wrong with that exercise?
Always a good idea to throw gasoline on an out of control fire. Of course with Austin’s stunning record of success as Sec of Defense, oh, wait.