Major Update On The Doc Leak - Israel Attack On Iran

First of all, let me be clear—full disclosure. Although, in common with all FBI agents of my time—I don’t know how matters stand now—I had during my working career a Top Secret (TS) clearance, subject to the need to know. However, while I worked for over 20 years in counterintelligence, I seldom viewed material above the Secret level. Nor do I recall receiving any specialized training in classification matters, only generalized training specific to the ordinary needs of someone in my position.

Larry Johnson’s post today delves into these matters, regarding the classification markings on the two leaked docs that provide details on Israeli planning for an attack on Iran:

More Fallout From Leak of US Intelligence on Israel Prep for Iran Attack

As LJ makes clear, in a very real sense some of the biggest revelations from these docs are the classification markings themselves. Without getting deep into the weeds—follow the link for that—we, and anyone else who is interested, learn that only certain portions of the docs were released to all five of the Five Eyes countries—Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are second class members of the intel combine. So, Russia and other interested parties—if they didn’t already know—get an inside glimpse into those matters.

Far more interesting is what LJ says about the 2nd paragraph. He states

The second paragraph also is bound to stir up some trouble. …

…

In other words, the information in paragraph two came from a foreign government — i.e., Foreign Government Information Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance. If that government is Israel, then I suspect Netanyahu and his intel chiefs are beyond livid. But that is just my opinion. I have no firsthand or secondhand information about the specific nature of that information. You can read the second paragraph for yourself and decide.

OK, once you realize that the information in paragraph two came from a foreign government you can play a game of elimination. Obviously not the US—not foreign. Given that this information was obtained via some sort of “geo-spatial” agency, who else could have obtained it? The UK? France? Both operate aerial recon assets in the area, but I doubt that they overfly Israeli bases with the type of assets they operate. But if it wasn’t the US reporting this, then who? LJ speculates about the potential for an Israeli source leaking this info to the US.

Here’s more speculation—mine and nobody elses. Russia, and probably China, operate the type of geo-spatial surveillance that could pick up activity of the sort described at Israeli bases. Is it possible that Russia contacted the US and said something like: “Hey, we know—repeat, we know—what Israel is up to. Think carefully about supporting that sort of thing. We will react commensurately with the Anglo-Zionist escalation against Iran.”

As for the minimum bottom line, LJ quotes Stephen Bryen, a big supporter of Israel:

Stephen Bryen’s latest at The Asia Times mirrors what I have written in the preceding days, but gives you a flavor of the outrage over this leak. He writes:

It is extraordinarily valuable material that Iran can, and likely will, use to prepare its defenses. . . .

Whoever leaked it to Tehran was warning that an Israeli strike was imminent. It also told the Iranians the types of weapons that would be used and the probable targets, the latter being mainly Iranian air defense sites and long-range radars. . . .

There can be no doubt that the leak of geospatial-origin intelligence has brought significant harm to Israel. It is also likely that much more sensitive intelligence was leaked to the Iranians, information that Iran may be protecting from public disclosure. Some releases on the Spectator channel admit as much. . . .

All of this is likely to cause a significant reassessment in Israel. At minimum, the Israelis will have the opinion that US intelligence is unreliable and penetrated. Beyond that, some will understand the US to be overtly hostile and acting against Israel. (After the drone attack, the prime minister received phone calls from foreign heads of state and from former President Trump and US House Speaker Mike Johnson. Neither President Biden nor Vice President Harris called.)

Whoever leaked these documents clearly had at least one objective in mind — stopping Israel’s preparation for an attack on Iran. 

Alastair Crooke, this morning, offered the same view. Whoever leaked these docs probably wanted to head off the start of World War III. Does that support my speculation about Russian involvement? There’s no doubt now that the public release of just this amount of information was sufficient to head off an Israeli - US attack—it looks very much like a warning shot across the Anglo-Zionist bow. As for Bryen’s speculation that more sensitive info was leaked to the Iranians, that spec rests on the assumption that the docs were released directly to Iran, that the leaker was actually an Iranian agent. But there is no support for that assumption—although it’s a possibility. Possibilities have to be investigated, but investigation ultimately must rest on evidence.

Now, as for the meaning of the targeting, Alastair Crooke makes good sense, and we can see why he spoke of heading off WW3:

Looks from reading the briefs that they were targeting air defense systems and long range radars primarily with air [launched] cruise missiles or ballistic missiles. From my perspective that tells you that when you take out the air defenses and radar this is the first step. It is evident that it's a preparation for step two and step three or step four. So I imagine it was seen as the way to clear the path for America to join in at some point and to support Israel with a more full attack on either the nuclear system, the Iranian leadership, or even its energy resources. I think these last two [deeply buried nuclear facilities or deeply protected leadership] are quite difficult for Israel, which is why I think it may end up--because this is the Israeli favorite [digression on Israeli luv for decapitation strikes]. Of course, it's done and intended to escalate, it is all about escalating and about drawing Americans into a final sort of conflict with Iran, and that's what Netanyahu is yearning for.

Again I ask: Does this reading support my speculation that Russia issued some sort of warning? Crooke argues persuasively that these docs show that the planned—perhaps headed off—Israeli strike was the first step in an ever escalating, existential, war on Iran. And yet Crooke also points out that the Iranians remain calm and confident that they will be able to strike back convincingly. Do they know Russia has their back, not only in manning air defense but in providing geospatial and radar derived intel and dealing with the US? It’s a question worth pondering.