Macgregor On War, Military And Economic

As I mentioned in a comment, Douglas Macgregor has done a fascinating interview with Dmitri Simes. It’s available on Youtube and is about 38 minutes long:

Who is winning in Ukraine? | Sober analysis by Douglas Macgregor | Against The Trend

The length of the exchange allows Simes to ask probing questions on a range of topics related to the conflict in Ukraine—potential for use of nukes (sorry, no DEFCON 1, says Doug), what to expect and how soon—and Macgregor has the time to respond in detailed fashion. I urge everyone to listen. However, I’ve transcribed some portions that I found striking, because they go beyond purely military matters. The last portion is a bit of a summary:

[20:40]

Q: How do you think this war is going to end? Would you care to make any prediction?

A: I think that we will rapidly become absorbed here in the United States with our own internal financial and economic difficulties. The same people who think for some reason that you can hike interest rates, defeat inflation--but not cut spending--that you can still peddle bonds to the rest of the world when the Japanese and the Chinese are dumping our US Treasuries ... these people are also claiming that Ukraine can win. They're wrong. Those things are incompatible. Those things are not going to happen. The entire Western world is going to be consumed this winter with the financial and economic crisis that's developing. So that's the first part.

The second part is, the Russians are exactly what you said: They're deliberate, they're methodical. They're going to put together these offensives. These offensives are going to be launched, I suspect, certainly when the ground freezes--no later than mid-November--and these offensives will sweep everything before them. And we, on the other hand, will sit there and say, Well, we're sorry. We did all we could. And the Ukrainian people will suffer for it.

...

[32:40]

Q: Can there be any serious, substantive change in American foreign policy?

A: If I am right, and the economic disaster that confronts us over the next two years is as severe as I think it will be, Dmitri, then: Yes, we will see a profound change of course. You cannot sort of careen like a car out of control down the side of a mountain ... That's where we are at the moment. We have careened out of control. We have set forces in motion we don't understand and can't control. And there's another feature to this, and that is: ... most Americans today are worried about the damage done by the hurricane. Most Americans are not thinking about Ukraine and I doubt that large numbers of them could even find it on the map. The bottom line is that, as the domestic unrest grows as the result of the financial and economic downturn that I think is looming on the horizon, it will be very difficult for anyone to do anything overseas except withdraw forces, consolidate their position, and hope for the best here at home.

Simes then goes on to ask whether, given the impression that the US foreign policy elite appears dominated by globalist ideology, can there be enough people who would change their views?

[35:00]

Macgregor's response is that most foreign policy people who want to be a success in DC and make a lot of money are "running silent." Those people have aligned over the years with Madeline Albright and Sandy Berger. They're in power now. That's why you see retired generals line up to declare their confidence that Russia will be defeated. Macgregor says he sees a "sea change" coming. When the political winds change, those people will change their views to suit the prevailing winds. Macgregor believes that "a lot of these people will be swept away in the disaster that lies ahead.

Regarding what Macgregor says about economic matters, the pages at Zerohedge are filled again with pleas for The Fed to abandon interest rate hikes (the strong dollar) and pivot immediately to more inflation to debase the dollar and prevent a debt crisis. Example, from a guy who thinks another Great Depression is very much in the cards:

So, again, when will Powell pivot?

After the pain, politics and panics have reached levels the US and global economy and markets haven’t seen since the FDR era, Powell will throw in the towel and pivot.

In the interim, the US (as well as global) middle class can thank Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell for all the pain ahead, as it is the direct (and I mean direct) result of years of unprecedented drunken free money and bloated debt, the hangover for which is going to be a record-breaking B!c7%…

…

Remember when I said the Fed has no good options left? I meant it. It’s either tighten and risk systemic collapse, or ease and destroy the currency.

Pick your poison.

I’m not sure how destroying the currency will save the middle class, as the writer implies. Of course letting pension funds bail isn’t good for the middle class either. When will any of these people get locked up, like back in 2008?