LJ And Crooke Weigh In On Israel/Palestine

Larry Johnson takes a strictly military view of matters, comparing the coming battle in Gaza to the WW2 battle of Iwo Jima:

WILL THE BATTLE OF GAZA STRIP BE ISRAEL’S IWO JIMA?

The analogy here has to do with the way the Japanese had honeycombed Mount Suribachi with tunnels and deep bunkers to withstand US naval bombardment. Just so, Hamas has, for years, been preparing the urban landscape. It took the Marines a month and massive casualties to take Iwo Jima—a far smaller area than Gaza. So LJ writes:

I think Israel is looking at the equivalent of fighting the Battle of Iwo Jima in the Gaza Strip. Only instead of a month long effort, this battle would likely endure for at least four months — perhaps longer. And Israel will suffer massive casualties. I believe the length of the battle hinges on two critical factors: 1) The ability of Hamas to get resupplied from Egypt with food, weapons and ammunition and 2) The skill and tenacity of Hamas in using anti-tank guided missiles and light artillery effective at short range.

If Hamas replicates the tactics Hezbollah employed against Israel in its 2006 incursion into Southern Lebanon then Israel’s chances of prevailing quickly are slim. Israel’s strategic position will be further complicated if Hezbollah decides to enter the fray in a significant way. Fighting a two front war over an extended period of time will sap Israeli resources. The problem this presents is that Israel’s traditional supplier of weapons and ammunition — the United States — is running on fumes having depleted its stores in order to support Ukraine.

This is an analogy worth considering. Israel was not prepared for Hezbollah’s strategy in Southern Lebanon, in mountainous terrain. Now they apparently are preparing for an attempt on a very dense and densely prepared urban environment. Israeli forces have previously fared poorly in such settings, which is a challenge for the most professional of armies. It’s difficult to believe that Hamas has not been pointing toward this, yet Israel is openly stating that they’re going in on the ground.

Alastair Crooke, by contrast, deals with the intel failure. He discounts the various conspiracy theories—which, in fairness to the theorists, have been developed to explain a well nigh inexplicable failure. Crooke emphasizes that this conflict has been brewing because of the years of Haredi provocations at the Al Aqsa mosque and the progressive settler led ethnic cleansing of the West Bank. This is what the Hamas title for their operation is all about:

‘Al-Aqsa Flood’: The surprise is that some are surprised

How could the Israeli government and Western analysts not have known this was coming?

The writing was clearly written on the wall. Two years ago, a missile campaign was unleashed from Gaza on “Tel Aviv” in response to the Temple Mount Movement’s religious zealotry and invasion of Al-Aqsa mosque.

Palestinians rallied to the call to safeguard the Holy Mosque. It was not just Hamas; it was West Bank Palestinians and (for the first time, too, 1948 Palestinians who have Israeli passports) who all rose up to protect Al-Aqsa. Just to be clear, the rallying cry was not for Hamas; it was not for Palestinian nationalism. It was for Al-Aqsa — an icon that goes to the heart of what it is to be Muslim (Sunni or Shi’a). It was a cry that resonated across the entire Islamic sphere.

Did the West not get it? Apparently not. It was right under their nose, but super high-tech Intel doesn’t do symbolic meaning. That was true for the 2006 Lebanon war too, by the way; “Israel” could not grasp the symbolism of Hezballah’s ‘Karbala’ stand.

Crooke then goes on to discuss the deep fracture within Israeli society (he has repeatedly discussed this key issue). Israel was founded on the strength of liberal Ashkenazi Jews from Europe, but the Mizrahi Jews are now in the ascendant—societally and politically. This has fueled a shift to the “Right”, to strongly religious Zionism. The meaning?

the Right in Netanyahu’s government has two long-standing commitments. One is to rebuild the (Jewish) Temple on ‘Temple Mount’ (Haram al-Shariff).

Just to be clear, that would entail demolishing Al-Aqsa.

The second overriding commitment is to the founding of “Israel”, on the “Land of Israel”. And again, to be clear, this (in their view) would entail clearing Palestinians from the West Bank. Indeed, the settlers have been cleansing Palestinians from swaths of the West Bank over the past year (notably between Ramallah and Jehrico).

The Israeli threat to Al Aqsa has been building for two decades, since the First Intifida, triggered by Ariel Sharon entering the mosque—a direct appeal to the religious Right. The Temple Mount Movement has only gained momentum since then.

At that time, the Temple Mount Movement was a minnow; today it has ministers in Cabinet and in key security positions — and has promised its followers to build the ‘Third Temple’.

This year saw hundreds of Haredi invade the mosque with the full support of the Israeli military, expelling Muslims. And the West—including some of my readers—claim to be utterly baffled by the response that came just days later.

I’ll finish with this snippet from the liberal Haaretz describing the ethnic cleansing that is ongoing on the West Bank. NB: this movement of ethnic cleansing has notably included “settlers” invading Palestinian olive groves and chopping down the trees, depriving the residents of their living:

Far From the Eyes of the World, an Unbelievable Population Transfer Is Underway in the West Bank

Terrorized by settlers, Palestinian shepherds in the West Bank are being forced to leave the villages they have lived in for decades. Last week it was the turn of Al-Baqa'a

All that remains in the valley now is black, scorched earth, a memento of what was until last week a place of human habitation. There also is a sheep pen, which the banished residents left behind as a memorial or perhaps also in the hope of better days, when they will be able to return to their land – a prospect that looks very …