Larry Johnson: Going To War With Iran

Every rational person’s big concern right now is that the crazies in DC—those who are in the pay of the Israel Lobby—are going to get the US into a regional war that would pit the US against nation states like Iran. Nation states with real militaries with significant capabilities—not the second rate militaries or militias that we’ve attacked in the past. Of course, we’re learning now that those militias have some serious capabilities of their own.

The good news is that some degree of sanity—the exact degree isn’t known yet—seems to be taking hold at the WH. Alastair Crooke says his sources tell him that the US is backing away from direct strikes at Iran—a step which moronic retired generals and the other usual suspects are advocating. There is this, also, FWIW:

John Kirby:

"Washington does not want a broader war with Iran"

As usual, the proof is in the pudding. Saying so doesn’t make it so if you go ahead and do something stupid. Who trusts Zhou not to do something stupid? Would you bet your life on that?

In the circumstances we need clarity on the main issue—how to avoid regional war. Larry Johnson did a pretty concise, yet thorough, video on this topic. I’ve done a partial (edited) transcript of some of what I regarded as the highlights. Follow the link for the full video, which gets into some other important aspects and details:

Going to War With Iran

Hello I'm Larry Johnson. Mark today on your calendars, January 28 2024, on the east coast of the United States. Current time is roughly 5:45 p.m. Today marks the start of the expansion of the war in the Middle East, one that is going to lead the United States down a road that, frankly, is a dead end. A road to war that the United States cannot win ... The United States lives in a fantasy world when it comes to its use of military power. We hearken back to the days of the first attack on Iraq in 1991 and then later in 2003. ... We've convinced ourselves that because we can beat up kids in wheelchairs that we're a world class fighter--and we're not. The United States has yet to come to grips with what's taking place in Yemen--the Houthis have fought the United States and the United Kingdom to a standstill, they have effectively blockaded us. They're achieving nothing. They are not stopping the Houthis, they have not destroyed their stock of weapons, nor is the United States in a position to invade Yemen. Despite that they continue to pretend that they are all powerful, that all other nations must bend the knee before the United States. The United States is in for a rude awakening.

Which brings us to today. The United States has continued to play both sides of the fence. The United States and the United Kingdom since 2012 have been involved with a covert effort to arm radical Islamists in Syria with the purpose of overthrowing the government of Bashar al-Assad at the same time the United States proclaimed that its real mission in Syria was to fight some of the very Islamists that we were arming.

The problem is the United States lives with the illusion, the fantasy, that we can launch attacks against Iran and that there's nothing Iran can do to fight back or to stop us. Up to this point the attacks by these so-called Iranian proxy groups that have been attacking US military bases in Syria in Iraq. These groups have been carrying that out on behalf of the Palestinians because of US support in providing Israel with the weapons that are being used to commit genocide in Palestine. These groups have been targeting US military bases. One of those bases curiously is in Kurdish territory located adjacent to a Conoco oil facility. Well, guess what? The oil that's pumped from that ground gets sold through Turkey and then that oil ultimately makes its way to Israel. So the US military presence in Syria and in Iraq--which is being described as to fight ISIS and to fight terrorism--that's pure unadulterated bullshit. These military units are there to protect oil interests and ostensibly to protect Israel. That's what they are there for and that is why they are being attacked.

Up to this point the attacks have not been what I would call serious. Iran has missiles that can reach all of those bases--and missiles with much more powerful warheads than these puny ass drones. We're talking major missile configurations that can reach easily to Israel. I do not rule out the possibility that this could entail Iran unleashing a terrific missile barrage on Tel Aviv. This thing is poised now to spin out of control because Iran now has a strategic defensive agreement in place--at least de facto--with Russia. In fact Iran has been conducting joint military exercises with Russia and China going back more than four years, so this is not just Iran on its own. The United States has enjoyed the luxury of carrying out illegal attacks against other countries invading Iraq without even the approval of the US Congress.

The United States United States spends a lot of time blaming Iran for the actions of Hamas and Hezbollah and these other entities. While they share certain common interests and certain common values, that doesn't mean that they're necessarily the puppets or under the control of Iran. In fact, in the case of Hezbollah, Hezbollah has been known to have been going its own way for more than 30 years. It still has friendly relations with Iran, still will have exchanges of military technology and training, but it's no longer a child under the tutelage of Iran.

If the United States is attacked from any base in either Saudi Arabia or Qatar--and in Qatar that is particularly an issue because that's where Al Udeid air base is. It's the largest US military base in the region, it's a headquarters for Central Command. If any air operations are launched from or directed from that facility it will become a ripe target, and it is vulnerable. Whatever air defense system the United States thinks it has in place will be inadequate to stop what Iran will fire.

We would be pursuing a war against people that have not been attacking the United States, per se, except where the United States puts its military forces in other countries thinking that it has the right to be there, the right to do whatever it wants in terms of launching drone strikes against people that we declare as terrorists, as high value targets--no judicial process, no due process, the United States gets to decide who lives and who dies, does so arbitrarily and frankly a lot of countries are now saying: no more.

I think LJ sums things up concisely here. Our problems in the Middle East cannot be solved with more bombing, more Tomahawk stikes. We need a policy that goes beyond, Yes, sir, Mr. Neyanyahu, whatever you say, Mr. Netanyahu, three bags full, Mr. Neyanyahu! Living in the past of Desert Storm is not the answer. The world has changed, power configurations have changed. America needs to change, too.