Just A Shot Away?

That’s what Larry Johnson is saying about the war on Iran—that the new kinetic phase will happen in “a matter of hours.” In fact, he says it was due to start last night but was canceled by Trump. We’ll get to that shortly, but let’s build up to it by referencing MoA’s explanation of the military dynamics, which I’m sure most readers are already familiar with. This is from Thursday. In addition to the issue of the military buildup and the seemingly inevitable march to war, MoA also finishes with a consideration of why Iran could be driven to shut down much of the world economy. These is just an illustration of how important it is to keep several balls in the air at once when trying to understand/predict what will happen.

The first part of MoA’s argument is that Trump had left himself an off ramp—up to the last few days. That off ramp now seems to be shut off, or is in the rear view mirror, for practical purposes:

U.S. – Israel Ready To Strike At Iran

U.S. President Donald Trump has managed to maneuver himself into a position that makes a long war on Iran all but inevitable.

About two days ago I was still betting on Trump to chicken out of a war with Iran. The military buildup in the Middle East was insufficient but for a short in-out air campaign on Iran with no discernible value.

But over the last days the U.S. military has sent many more air refueling tankers, dozens of more fighter planes and – most importantly – command and control elements to the Middle East. The force is sufficient for a large air campaign that could be sustained for at least two weeks. An additional carrier strike force has entered the Mediterranean and will be positioned west of Israel by the end of the week. A second carrier strike group is deployed in the Arabian Sea.

Deploying such a large force is extremely costly. Pressure will increase quickly to use it or to stand down.

One comment. A two week war still seems unlikely to accomplish what the Anglo-Zionists want, which is regime change cum Balkanization of Iran.

Now here are MoA’s concluding thought:

Iran is expected to be be helped by Chinese and Russian intelligence. During the war in Ukraine the U.S. established the norm that the supply of intelligence to one party of a war is insufficient to make oneself a combatant. Chinese satellite intelligence will allow Iran to have at all times a clear picture of its enemies disposals.

Iran however is undoubtedly the underdog in this fight. It can not win a war against a country that is several thousand miles away from its shores. The damage a sustained U.S. air campaign will cause will be real and very painful. The real threat is not a one off campaign but a constant deterioration of the Iranian state should the U.S. decide to wage a long campaign of attrition against it as it did against Iraq between the two Gulf wars.

My view is that the US is not in a position to wage a long campaign of attrition. Not militarily and not economically. However, Iran can’t act on my views or facile assumptions. It will need to head off that possibility by taking direct action, and that means closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s allies are prepared for this—Russia has vast reserves of energy, China can tap into Russia’s reserves and also has an enormous strategic reserve of its own:

The only way to prevent that is for Iran to use the economic power that comes with its control of the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade of the Strait would raise global oil prices to the north of $100 per barrel. With energy prices going through the roof, and the collateral economic damage cause by it, the chance of the Republicans winning the midterms will go down to nil.

That’s where MoA saw things as of Thursday. LJ weighs in this morning. Alert: At the link there are three videos, at the bottom of the page. We’ll skip the first paragraph that looks at the same considerations of military prep momentum that we just reviewed. Recall that LJ believes that a Friday start was delayed:

White House Drama Re Pending Decision to Attack Iran

For starters, there are two senior members of the Trump administration who are warning the President that the attack would be political suicide. They reportedly buttressed their argument against attacking Iran by providing the President with the results of a recent opinion poll. According to the poll results, if Trump starts a war with Iran and there are significant US casualties, the Titanic has a better chance of sailing again than the Republicans winning the midterms. It appears — at least for now — that Trump is reconsidering giving the Execute order.

A second factor that makes an attack less likely this weekend is Tuesday’s State of the Nation address by Trump. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles may be a corrupt, Zionist tool, but she is not politically obtuse. Starting a war with Iran, especially after Trump’s tariff deal was slapped down by the US Supreme Court, would likely set off a firestorm among the Democrats, Independents and the media. Instead of Trump being able to tout all of his massive achievements during his first year of his second term, the public attention would be clamoring for info about the war. JCS Chairman Caine and Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of CENTCOM, have warned the President that there is a high likelihood that there would be US casualties when the US attacks.

It’s worth recalling that public opinion in the US was adamantly opposed to Trump’s sneak attack on Iran back in June, and remains adamantly opposed to any more war. Ignore the Trump base—that’s actually a small, albeit vocal, fraction of the total electorate. In fact, it’s not even a majority of self identified Republicans. Also ignore what you’re hearing from Senators and Reps. They’re purchased puppets whose tune will quickly change if the war goes badly—they will scramble to get on the right side of where they already know public opinion is.

Next, LJ explains the pressures that continue to build for war, despite Trump’s second thoughts. The first factor is well known—the political pressure of money applied by Jewish Nationalists. The second has to do with the phases of the moon. This weekend, it seems, is ideal for offensive air strikes. If not this weekend, the launch of war will have to wait a month, which means the military is clamoring for war now or never—because it’s nearly impossible to maintain this level of war prep indefinitely. The problem is intensified by the fact that Netanyahu continues to dictate impossible terms of a deal to Trump. Trump will need to develop a backbone very quickly, having frittered away valuable time for the last six months. Again, follow the link for more on the phases of the moon.

Here’s an argument for how Trump’s typical shoot-from-the-lip approach—so effective in the arena of domestic politics—has failed him here:

Mosab Hassan Yousef @MosabHasanYOSEF

8h

Trump cornered himself, rushed to say ‘help is on the way,’ deployed a third of the American firepower, ‘the armada,’ flexed hard. Now he’s stuck.

Back off? Looks weak. Strike? Chaos explodes. Regional war. Lose-lose.

Power in the hands of the inexperienced is like letting a reality-TV actor run a war, ratings spike, then the show’s canceled mid-season.

Real leaders don’t underestimate their opponents and prepare first. Not sell public fantasies that crash in reality.

Reminder: Iran is not Venezuela. This will at least give you a clue about the real state of affairs:

Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW

15h

The surest possible indicator of the actual outcome of the Twelve Days’ War is that the Israelis seem to be absolutely terrified of going another round with Iran without the full participation of the United States military.

Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal

YNet: Israel is unable to deter Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and is pushing the US military to attack to prevent further erosion of its qualitative edge

Americans were always told Israel could defend itself if gifted enough tools, but now Tel Aviv pleads helplessness

The point is that there’s no reason to believe that this time will be a cakewalk. And once it stops being a cakewalk casualties can rise quickly.

Here’s another indicator. Will Schryver has a long post in which he deals with reports that the US is sending what sounds like virtually all the SEAD assets it can muster to the Middle East—something like 40+ dedicated planes at last report. Here are three key paragraphs:

Growlers and Wild Weasels, Oh My!

It has been claimed since last summer that Israel totally obliterated Iranian air defenses, and that Israeli aircraft flew entirely unopposed in Iranian airspace during the 12-Day War.

IF THAT IS TRUE, THEN WHY THIS HUGE DEPLOYMENT OF GROWLER, WILD WEASEL, AND ISR AIRCRAFT TO THE REGION JUST A FEW MONTHS LATER?

It is obvious that the US is EXTREMELY concerned about the risks posed by the Iranian air defenses that Israel supposedly destroyed last summer.

One factor contributing to this concern is that Iran fields Russian S-300 and possibly S-400 AD systems. Reports are that they locked onto F-35s back in June. The Russians have reportedly been working overtime to help the Iranians to integrate this hardware into a true interconnected AD system, to maximize the effectiveness of the actual missiles. These systems are probably the most advanced in the world, and the US has never gone up against them in actual combat. Again, the point is that there will be many imponderables involved this time—this time is unlikely to be simply a repeat of June, but with extra US assets. There will likely to be surprises, and surprises are usually unpleasant in war.

Buckle up!