January 6 Event: Things Fall Apart?

Back in August we were somewhat baffled when FBI Director Chris Wray unexpectedly appeared to break ranks with the official DC narrative about an “insurrection” on January 6, 2020. In what appeared to be an officially sanctioned leak, we were told that the FBI had “found scant evidence that the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol was the result of an organized plot to overturn the presidential election result.” In Is Chris Wray Bailing On The Regime? I offered some initial speculation on what might be going on with this change of tune:

Has Chris Wray held his finger up to test the political winds, and does he see a GOP Congress coming? Is he looking to ingratiate himself with those he sees as his future masters in Congress?

That could be one way to interpret the latest FBI leak, which totally undercuts DoJ's already struggling inquisition against January 6 Event participants. Via Red State:

According to four current and former law enforcement officials, the FBI has “found scant evidence that the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol was the result of an organized plot to overturn the presidential election result.” The FBI doesn’t believe that the riot was “centrally coordinated by far-right groups or prominent supporters of then-President Donald Trump, according to the sources, who have been either directly involved in or briefed regularly on the wide-ranging investigations.”

Obviously this is speculation. Nevertheless, this is not what a prosecutor wants to read in the news. What kind of witnesses will FBI agents make?

That was written on August 20 and, in general terms, still doesn’t seem out of line. The observation regarding “DoJ’s already struggling inquistion” remains true. In fact, things have only gotten worse for DoJ—much worse, actually, now that Obama judge Beryl Howell has forced prosecutors to turn over more video from the Capitol. The new video release shows mysterious black-clad figures gaining entry to the Capitol through high placed windows, dropping down, and opening the doors to demonstrators from the inside. It sure doesn’t look like a mob storming the Capitol.

It’s true that the Dem House is attempting to push ahead in their effort to make the 2022 Midterm elections all about the “insurrection.” But with the FBI appearing to bail, and the DoJ prosecutors increasingly floundering, with even Obama judge’s showing less patience, the Pelosi Plan looks ever more hopeless.

A day later I returned to the subject in Further Reflections On Chris Wray's Turnaround Re January 6 Event. In addition to confirming the above observations I offered the further consideration that Establishment DC was increasingly coming to the realization that:

the whole purpose of the January 6 Event "insurrection" narrative has failed. Trump has NOT been marginalized and forced off the national stage. Whether he will stage a political comeback in the sense of a new campaign for the presidency remains an open question, but he remains a major factor--a figure around whom Americans can rally. To that extent, the "insurrection" narrative is a clear fail and has to be jettisoned in view of coming battles.

Again, in the month since those words were written, everything has gone downhill for the Dems on every conceivable public policy front. Nobody is listening to the “insurrection” narrative except the minority of true believers.

Now, today, we are learning that the FBI is admitting that it did have at least one informant at the January 6 Event. That admission is in the context of a single case, so we can probably assume there were other informants or undercover agents present. The NYT account of this development, interestingly, reflects the initial leak quite closely. The FBI informant was a prominent member of the Proudboys, and he was participating in the protest while texting his observations in real time to his handling agent:

In the informant’s version of events, the Proud Boys, famous for their street fights, were largely following a pro-Trump mob consumed by a herd mentality rather than carrying out any type of preplanned attack.

“Scant evidence of an organized plot,” “a herd” milling about without any real plan. It all fits together. 

My guess is that, in addition to political considerations, the FBI understood that, in the normal course of prosecution, this type of internal reporting would inevitably be turned over to defense attorneys—as well as the videos. The prosecutors, in obedience to their political masters, have done what they could to conceal all this, but they’ve failed. The result will be that already skeptical judges—yes, there will be idiot exceptions—will only grow more distrustful of the prosecutors and their cases. Wray and the FBI seem to have seen this coming and did what they could to distance themselves.