Trump is talking “decapitation” again. Massive airstrikes. This plays into Iran’s strategy. Iran wants escalation, needs escalation, to accomplish its goals, as I maintained yesterday:
Will Schryver @imetatronink
11h
In my view, too few people appreciate the reality that Iran is more than willing to go another round.
This is the battle they WANT to fight. And they want to fight it NOW, with American military power at its post-Cold War nadir.
It’s almost as if Trump keeps walking into Prof Pape’s escalation trap, although he frequently TACOs.
The munitions shortages are being widely reported today. Recall that yesterday we noted that, with PAC 3 batteries being pulled out of Ukraine and sent to West Asia, Russia is probing and testing the use of manned aircraft for deeper strike behind Ukrainian lines.
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
2h
BREAKING: The US Army has now used up “virtually all” of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during the 5-month Iran war, the exact munitions crucial in any conflict with China, including most of its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), with sources saying the stockpile is now empty, per Reuters.
Between February and July, ~65% of Patriot interceptors have been expended and the number of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors in US stockpiles is at least 38% lower than at the start of the war due to constant Iranian attacks, with the US also having burned through ~50% of its global supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The growing worry is that the close to zero US missile supplies will severely limit the US ability to deter adversaries, particularly Russia in Ukraine and Europe, and China.
Nevertheless:
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
2h
BREAKING: Trump sets a new deadline, giving Iran until the end of today to finalize a Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman or face “devastating air strikes,” per Bloomberg.
Trump adds “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation... You’ll find out today.”
The agreement with Oman however would not be something that Trump wants, a senior Iranian official tells Reuters it would grant Iran total sovereign authority over all inbound maritime traffic, and Oman would clear outbound vessels only after notifying Iranian officials, ensuring Iran retains visibility and the option to intervene.
A nuke in hand is worth two in the bush. Hormuz is Iran’s nuke in hand. They’re not giving it up. Period. I doubt that Iran will agree to the deal outlined above, despite what the senior Iranian official told Reuters. We’ll see.
Larry Johnson’s post today helps address something I saw in comments yesterday—the idea that the US can relatively easily obtain the rare earths that it needs from other sources than China. Not so—not by a long shot. (Personal note: Back in the day I was involved in cases regarding China’s growing developments in the Gallium field.) In my view, America’s hyper financialized and de-industrialized economy is poorly placed for this competition. Here’s the link to LJ’s post:
But the heart of this presentation is this 12 minute video by Kevin Wamsley. Pay attention to the 6G part, which gets into the steep uphill struggle that America faces, which I pointed to, above:
China’s dilemma: help the Pentagon build jets and radars? Or win the 6G race?
I came across a summary of Prof Pape’s latest presentation which, in a way, gets into politics. As I type this I’m listening to Brandon Weichert talking politics with an Axios reporter, Alan Isenstadt. Isenstadt is making the argument that, if the Dems win the House and go for impeachment, that works to Trump’s strong suite—his love of fighting. Leaving considerations of age and personality aside, and also leaving considerations of economics, for the moment, Pape is arguing that geopolitics are really stacked against Trump—as we’ve seen throughout this entire war on Iran. Trump is “frustrated” because, while he may love a fight, this is a fight in which he lacks control:
Mark @Mark4XX
3h
TRUMP’S HISTORIC DEFEAT: THE END OF AMERICA’S UNIPOLAR MOMENT
Professor Pape argues that the war in Iran is not simply another lost war. It marks the strategic culmination that brings America’s entire unipolar era to an end. The same country that once demonstrated absolute escalation dominance now watches its preeminent power collapse in real time, and the president in the chair when the history books slam shut is Donald J. Trump.
THE HISTORY BOOK VERDICT
 From 1991 to 2026 the arc is complete, and Trump sits at the final chapter.
 The first Gulf War proved U.S. precision revolution supremacy with only 147 American dead against the fourth-largest army on earth.
 That splendid victory shaped decades of global order. Trump’s war is erasing it.
 He will not be forgotten. He will be remembered as the president who delivered the biggest strategic loss in American history, larger in consequence than Vietnam itself.
THE POWER VACUUM EXPLOSION
 America’s marked decline in regional dominance has created a power vacuum far more dangerous than anything that followed Vietnam.
 North Vietnam simply unified the country. No lasting vacuum. No global economic crisis layered on top.
 Today every actor is racing to fill the void: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, and more.
 Rivalries, preemptive spirals, and proxy contests are already accelerating because power vacuums never stay empty.
IRAN’S STEADY RISE
 While America oscillates, Iran advances drip by drip, consolidating leverage as oil inventories drain and economic pressure mounts.
 Its goal is clear: force every American troop, base, and naval asset out of the region.
 That trajectory continues whether Trump escalates or freezes, because the vacuum itself invites Iranian expansion as the rising regional hegemon.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Trump inherited the peak of American power and is presiding over its dramatic regional collapse. The power vacuum now unfolding is wider, more chaotic, and more consequential than the aftermath of Vietnam. History will record the date range and the name of the president who closed the unipolar chapter.
This is the sound of an empire’s dominance ending in real time.
The big question that Pape leaves unaddressed is whether BRICS—with its vast network of trade corridors and supply chain ties—can step in and replace the military based dollar dominance of the Anglo-Zionist Empire, a concept he always seems to sidestep.
And, with all the talk of war, it’s easy to lose sight of the building pressure on dollar hegemony which has been building for decades in our hollowed out, boom/bust, financialized economy. Mario Nawfal summarizes the dangers that Japan’s financial collapse presents, which Sean Foo (for quite some time) and Philip Pilkington have been discussing. Mario’s presentation is drawn from his discussions with PP. This Japan situation could prove huge for the midterms, and I don’t doubt that Trump recognizes this imminent danger. It’s what feeds his frustration and need to TACO all the way out of West Asia—as was discussed by Chris Martenson and Philip Pilkington in the second half of our morning post yesterday.
Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal
 Japan’s bond market just flashed a major warning...
A “horrible” 10Y JGB auction sent Japanese yields soaring, putting global bonds on edge.
The decades-long yen carry trade is under pressure as cheap Japanese capital has funded everything from U.S. equities to emerging markets.
Reread that last paragraph. The yen carry trade is what has funded so much of the Wall St. casino for decades. Trump is constantly touting that—without mentioning the role of Japan.
Why can’t the BoJ simply hike rates? ~14% of Japanese firms are zombies that already pay more in interest than they earn in profit. Higher rates risk mass defaults and a full-blown financial meltdown.
Japan’s the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. If it is forced to sell to defend the yen, U.S. borrowing costs, already near pre-2008 real levels, could spike further.
U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent is intervening hard (even joking about a “buy $5-10B JPY” note photographed, seemingly intentionally, at the Camp David meeting).
Temporary calm is possible, but a structural crisis is the bigger risk: yen instability triggers a Treasury sell-off, which then damages equity and AI sectors.
Tokyo, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!
I don’t know if I agree that Trump inherited the Empire at the top. I believe the end of Empire started with W and the Iraq war. Lying bold-faced about WMD and getting away with it. Personally, I thought he should be impeached over that.
But, come to think of it, I could be persuaded that the end of Empire began May, 1948 when we recognized Israel.
A good friend of mine is a Palestinian Christian born in Bethlehem whose family was expelled and their land stolen by the Jewish terrorists in the Nakba in 1947-1948. The family fled to Lebanon. My friend has a PhD from Georgia Tech, owns a factory in Germany, and helped found the journal The Cradle. His attitude to Trump's threats: "Bring it on." He is not the only one.