It Sounds Like The Russians Will Be Very Hardnosed

As an intro to the topic of the Russian approach to any negotiations—which I characterized yesterday as “maximalist”—I’m going to suggest that readers follow two links (since I can’t embed X videos here).

The first is an 8 minute report by a journalist attached to the Russia forces:

SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771

Report from liberated Kurakhove

Call it a presentation of the human face of war. One theme that comes up several times is that Ukrainian resistance is diminishing.

Next, a tour of a Ukrainian fortified position. This one appears to be in an open area, rather than in the high rise buildings or factories characteristic of the industrial towns of the Donbas, but you’ll get the idea:

ayden @squatsons

Russian solider shows the impressive Ukrainian fortifications in the area of Andriivka that were just captured.

This post by Andrei Martyanov got me started on this. Martyanov is skeptical regarding Diesen’s suggestion, understandably:

I am just curious here, especially against the background of this:

Lavrov was asked what part the European Union and countries like Germany could play in future Ukraine peace talks. The diplomat responded that “with all due respect to the history of the German people,” he believes that they have “already made their contribution through Chancellor Merkel’s office and administration,” referring to the Minsk agreements which were supposed to be backed by Germany and France.

Europe WILL NOT be a part of Russia-US dialogue which DOES NOT exist as I write this. Moreover, Mr. Ryabkov's diagnosis, and I quote, "You cannot trust Americans and their word"(c).

With regard to what Diesen wrote, I would point out that one of Putin’s draft treaties from December, 2021, was addressed to “member countries of NATO” (the other draft treaty was addressed to the US). I suspect Diesen had that in mind. But this is now and that was then—big difference. Lavrov is now saying, ‘Hey, you Euros had your chance at peace and you blew it—you lied to us. Fool us once, and all that jazz. You don’t count for anything, anyway. Go away and don’t let the door hit you in the ass.’

Martyanov’s comment is relevant in light of the most recent clownish talk from Kellogg. Kellogg says he wants the Ukrainians to draft 18 year olds for cannon fodder to “stabilize” the military situation. Refer to the X links above. Presumably the idea is to give the Ukrainians a better negotiating position. That’s delusional. The Russians know this is essentially a Jewish American war on Russia—Anglo-Zionist if you prefer. A war of revenge. Americans may not understand that, but the Russians certainly do—just ask Martyanov. Yes, there are all sorts of dumb shits in America—even prominent politicians—who buy into or help sell the propaganda—usually for campaign donations—but the Russians know that the driving force for America’s war on Russia is the Neocon ideology—which is a code word we all understand. Without that driving force, no war. Without that driving force, no critical mass for war on Russia. This is the real world, folks. And so the Russians are insisting on face to face talks with the real parties in interest—the Americans. No pretense that the Ukrainians ever controlled their fate. Not really.

With that in mind, here’s a longish statement from a prominent Russian politician, Nikolai Patrushev—this is a guy who knows whereof he speaks:

Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev (Russian: Никола́й Плато́нович Па́трушев; born 11 July 1951) is a Russian politician, security officer and former intelligence officer who served as the secretary of the Security Council of Russia from 2008 to 2024. He previously served as the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) from 1999 to 2008. Belonging to the siloviki faction of president Vladimir Putin's inner circle, Patrushev is believed to be one of the closest advisors to Putin and a leading figure behind Russia's national security affairs. He played a key role in the decisions to seize and then annex Crimea in 2014 and to invade Ukraine in 2022.

Got that? The Russian work silovik is typically translated as ‘strongman,’ but if it has the same sense as the cognate Polish word it probably signifies a person who is possessed of ‘power’ or ‘force’. This is a hardnosed customer with real weight and substance, not just the type of person Neocon goofballs like to call a ‘thug’.

Sony Thang @nxt888

NIKOLAI PATRUSHEV:

[Representatives of the new U.S. administration, in particular advisors appointed by Trump, have acknowledged in some of their speeches that Russia will not cede any territories that have already become part of the Russian Federation to Ukraine or anyone else under any circumstances.]

"This is not even up for discussion.

The territories that were once governed from Kiev became part of Russia as a result of the will of the citizens, in accordance with international law, the laws of the Russian Federation, and the legislation of those regions.

As for the Russian stance on Ukraine, it remains unchanged.

It is important for us that the objectives of the Special Military Operation are achieved. They are well-known and have not changed; they have been repeatedly stated by the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.

It is also important for the entry of the Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, the Republic of Crimea, and Sevastopol into the Russian Federation to be recognized worldwide, as they are an integral part of our country according to the Constitution.

I want to emphasize once again that the Ukrainian people remain close and brotherly to us, connected by centuries-old ties with Russia, no matter what the crazed Kiev propagandists, obsessed with 'Ukrainianism,' claim to the contrary.

We care about what is happening in Ukraine.

We are particularly concerned that the violent imposition of neo-Nazi ideology and rampant Russophobia are destroying Ukraine’s once-thriving cities, including Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev, and Dnipro.

It is possible that, in the coming year, Ukraine may cease to exist altogether.

If we talk about the specific prospects for the further development of events considering the Trump factor, we respect his statements.

I believe that negotiations regarding Ukraine should be conducted between Russia and the USA without the involvement of other Western countries.

There is nothing to discuss with London or Brussels.

The EU leadership, for example, no longer has the right to speak on behalf of many of its members, such as Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Romania, and some other European countries that are interested in stability in Europe and take a balanced position regarding Russia."

12:45 PM · Jan 14, 2025

All that said, my remarks about the character of this war, above, may actually now contribute to giving Trump some credibility with the Russians that he may have previously lacked. I’m talking about how Trump may now appear in light of developments in Gaza. By contrast with the knuckleheads and jokers like Kellogg, the Russians may now view Trump as something of a silovik himself, based on his having put Netanyahu in his place. Especially given that Netanyahu’s enablers in the US are also those who brought this horrendous war down upon Russia’s brothers in Ukraine. Trust me on this—that’s not empty talk coming from the Russians. The anger behind Patrushev’s words is almost palpable. The Russians may now be willing to take Trump’s rhetoric about wanting to stop the carnage more seriously. Thus, in a sense, Trump’s continued performance in the Middle East may prove very important to resolving our war on Russia.