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TomA's avatar

The US Treasury needs to sell (rollover) about $9 trillion in new bond issues over the next few months. They will be forced to pay a higher interest rate in order to attract buyers, and a new regional war in the ME will push that rate even higher in conjunction with higher oil prices and rising geopolitical risk. The interest on US sovereign debt is already forecast to be the single largest line item expense of this fiscal year, and that will only increase at an accelerating rate in 2026. Bombing Iran will not fix that problem; it will only make it worse.

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SMH's avatar

I’ll bet the markets will respond if the Straits of Hormuz are closed! And as well the rest of the country if gasoline shortages pop up and prices spike and rationing becomes necessary. I’m sure that many commenters lived through the gas shortages and price spikes of the 70’s, but a large portion of the population is clueless and don’t realize what it means if you can only buy gas on certain days of the week or are limited to how many gallons you can purchase. Not to mention waiting in long lines hoping that there’s gas left when your turn at the pump comes. We have a totally different social fabric today and the idea that you can only buy gas today if your tag has even numbers on it is not only a foreign concept but a concept that most would find completely unacceptable and would express their displeasure in aggressive and undoubtedly violent manners.

15-20.00 fuel costs could become a reality overnight along with staggering increases in freight costs across all sectors. The economic impact would be enormous and social unrest off the charts.

The folks pushing the idea that this conflict will remain contained are delusional. They are called the Dogs of War for a reason: relentless, unpredictable, vicious and ultimately uncontrollable. Myself, and many others as well, had a sense of foreboding about 2025, looks like those feelings were justified.

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