It’s too early to sort this out, but …
Early reports are of explosions in Teheran. I find it hard to believe that Iran has critical nuclear facilities in Teheran, so are these strikes actually targeting Iran’s leadership? Further, we don’t know yet the delivery system. With all the war talk over the last few days, Iran would presumably have been on high alert. Trump is reported to have told “allies” that the US was NOT in on this. But will Iran believe that? No truly serious attack could be carried out without US assistance. If Trump doesn’t cut off weapons supplies that feeds the presumption that Trump was in on it.
Here’s Trita Parsi’s take from his twitter feed:
If Israel bombed Iran in defiance of Trump's expressed wishes, Tehran will expect to see Trump punishing Netanyahu for defying him and for putting US troops in danger. If no such punishment occurs, Iran will conclude that the US was in on the attack and had given Israel a green light in private.
In his speech during the attack on Iran, Netanyahu thanked Trump.
[Netanyahu] is doing his utmost to convince Tehran that the US was in on the attack. Hoping Iran retaliates against the US, so that Israel can get the US-Iran war it has been pushing for since the early 2000s...
This was not a preemptive attack on Iran alone.
This was Israel preemptively seeking to kill Trump and America's chance to secure a deal with Iran that prevents both an Iranian bomb and was with Iran.
No other "ally" of the US behaves like this...
Will Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz? Will Iran retaliate with full force against Israel? Will Iran retaliate against US regional bases? Word is that their major missiles can reach Diego Garcia.
We should have answers soon.
Trump's most recent statement is that "we" will do it "the other way" unless Iran gives up enrichment:
Will Schryver @imetatronink·
37m
Beyond Here Be Monsters
Anyone who believes the United States is not intimately involved in these strikes on Iran is delusional.
Trump has now committed the catastrophic strategic blunder I have warned about for months.
I've been watching both flight programs - if they did any of this by air strike (which they claimed), they did it without any clearing of civilian air traffic, through Iraq or Iran (which is nuts). Last time, Iraqi air traffic was shut down. From Al Jazeera & Agenda Free TV, the video they are showing from Tehran looks like civilian buildings were struck in a residential area. I don't see any military people in these vids, just regular people. This is absolute insanity.