Is This Trump's Latest Plan B?

Over the last month—since the Weekend War on Iran failed to end after the weekend—we’ve seen daily reports that Trump is contemplating multiple plans to bring his disastrous war to an end before the economic consequences come home to roost. Many of these plans involve American troops on the ground somewhere in the Middle East—usually in Iran. The schemes include ideas such as seizing islands in the Persian Gulf—whether Kharg or other islands—seizing uranium enrichment sites in Iran, raiding Iranian missile sites, etc. All of these plans that have been floated share one characteristic: They’re wildly impractical and would involve heavy US casualties. That’s why another regularly repeated ploy—calling on NATO countries to open the Strait of Hormuz for themselves—finds no takers.

Now there may be a new plan in mind. Or, rather, an old, old plan that is being resurrected—routing all Middle Eastern oil, including especially Gulf oil, through Israel via pipelines across the north Arabian or Syrian desert regions. You can read all about these plans, which date back—in one form or another—to the Anglo-French involvement in the post WW1 period, in Charlotte Dennett’s Follow the Pipelines. These schemes have always been in the background of the Anglo-Zionist machinations in the Middle East—wars, regime change ops, destabilization ops, etc. Including, of course, the Iraq wars. Now we see that Trump is openly talking TACO—or what appears to be a TACO—from a WSJ article that’s gaining a lot of attention today:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

11h

 Trump is ready to end the U.S. war on Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, effectively leaving Tehran in control of the chokepoint and delaying any effort to restore full access.

In recent days, he and his team concluded that forcing the strait open would drag the war beyond his four- to six-week timeline. Instead, Washington aims to “cripple Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles,” then wind down fighting and shift to “diplomatic pressure to restore trade flows.” - WSJ

And yet, as John Mearsheimer pointed out to Judge Nap this morning, Trump continues to move military assets into the region—he continues to escalate. Mearsheimer suggests two theories to account for the mess: First, Trump is a Mad King, and second, Trump now understands he’s in a no win situation and is simply “flailing” around, desperately seeking a way out—and almost all of those schemes involve escalation. Here are some brief excerpts from the Mearsheimer interview:

Trump: We’re having very good meetings both, directly and indirectly, and I think we’re getting a lot of very important points.

I.e., Trump says Iran is giving in all demands so Trump says he’ll make more demands.

Judge: In fact, these meetings don’t exist. I know. I don’t know what to say. What do you say about this?

Prof: [Laughing] The whole thing is just--it’s preposterous. The level of incoherence here is just off the charts. This is the president of the United States, the president of the most powerful country in the world. You can only wonder what other leaders around the world, other people around the world are thinking as they watch this. And it’s just hard to believe that this man is in charge of the United States.

Just as LBJ escalated in Vietnam without a winning strategy ...

Trump is going up the escalation ladder. I can’t help thinking about Vietnam and how that war played itself out.

And this is the situation that Trump is in. He’s involved and he can’t walk away.

In part because of the Israelis, but even if the Israelis weren’t involved, this is the United States of America. It doesn’t walk away from a fight. That mentality is hardwired into us. So what he’s doing is he’s escalating as we read the newspapers today. What you see is that the administration is moving ground forces into the Middle East.

There’s no military solution here.

And behind closed doors there is wildeyed pessimism about where we’re headed.

And yet, the WSJ article—which Mearsheimer has read—directly states that Trump is planning to TACO, leaving Hormuz under Iranian control, and then to turn to “diplomacy.” While shifting more military assets to the region. While, according to reports, France, Spain, and Italy are now all refusing their air space to those shifts of US military assets.

In fact, of course, the world isn’t so simple as that, and US energy costs are also heading steadily upward.

What’s going on? Maybe Mearsheimer is on to something—although he doesn’t explicitly enunciate this. Maybe Trump is toying with the Netanyahu Solution—which, as noted above, is NOT NEW. It goes back at least a hundred years, this time with the addition of US military bases in Israel:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

2h

BREAKING:

 Netanyahu says the oil from the Gulf states will pass trough Israel in the future

After the Iranian war, the [Strait of] Hormuz needs to be bypassed using pipelines from Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean,” - Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proposes a radical idea of pipelines stretching from the Gulf to Israel, carrying crude. In this way it bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The proposal would give Tel Aviv massive leverage power over the GCC and can hold the entire Arab Gulf hostage in the future.

Two problems come immediately to mind, and there are many others. First, these new pipelines would take time to build—is that why American troops are being sent? Second, those new pipelines would be highly vulnerable. In the new Middle East Iran would not only have control over Hormuz, Iran and it’s Iraqi allies would exercise effective control over the Gulf sources of oil—possibly even military and political control over areas with large Shiite populations.

Presumably Trump’s version of Netanyahu’s plan would include “diplomacy” to open Hormuz to ease the situation for the rest of the world, while the pipelines are a-building—as if Iran wouldn’t continue it’s war precisely against any such scheme. In other words, this would likely lead to further and larger US involvement in a continuing war that the US is ill prepared for. As for opening Hormuz, Iran is already on top of that concept—for a fee. But the Gulf states might also jump at that lifeline, submitting to Iranian/Iraqi hegemony rather than Anglo-Zionist neo-colonialism.

The obvious reason Trump is even toying with this new mad scheme is because he’s in a desperate position. But there are now so many things going awry in the global economy that will be—already are—working against Trump that the crisis point will be reached long before Iran is in any mood to do a deal with Trump. Here’s one:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: US industrial gas supplier Airgas declared a force majeure, telling a customer it would only meet up to 50% of their normal monthly helium demand amid the Iran War, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. The world is facing a significant helium shortage amid the Strait of Hormuz’s closure which has limited ~30% of global helium supply

2. Airgas also told the client that it would add a surcharge of $13.50 per hundred cubic feet above the contracted price

3. Helium supplies which are “critical for AI” have been “choked off,” per WSJ

4. Hundreds of specialized cryogenic containers, each costing $1 million, are now stuck in the Middle East

Global helium supply is at risk.

Just as bad—actually, much worse (h/t commenter It’s Just Me):

The Food Supply Chain Is Breaking... Again

Here’s an overview:

Shanaka Anslem Perera @shanaka86

BREAKING: The nitrogen trap just closed. Three locks snapped shut simultaneously. The planting window is closing behind them. And the food the world eats next year is now being decided by molecules that cannot reach the soil in time.

• Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertiliser vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. ...

• Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. ...

• Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar.

The biological calendar does not negotiate. ...

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Again, I and readers of MIH are far from the only people aware of all these dynamics. The entire country will soon be painfully aware of them, as Trump’s war forces prices of virtually everything much higher—higher than a large majority of the populace has ever experienced. Trump simply doesn’t have the time for any of his escape plans to go into effect before the SHTF moment. Trump is well and truly trapped—but so are we.

It turns out that Trump is a classic narcissist. He views the presidency of the USA as the ultimate platform on which to inflate his fragile ego by bullying the rest of the world—telling the truth to the people who put him in the White House doesn’t really enter into his considerations. Now he’s bit off far more than he can chew, and his reaction is to blame Iran—which has refused to play the part Trump assigned to it, to pump up his ego.