Is This How NATO Is Sinking Deeper Into The Ukraine Quagmire?

I’ve been puzzling over some of the news coming out of Ukraine lately. Perhaps there are some dots that we can connect. Yesterday we looked at Simplicius’ latest SitRep. Several of Simplicius’ usually canny observations failed to add up, to my way of thinking. For example:

On that note, there is again increased talk of mercenaries everywhere. As Ukraine runs out of men, NATO hawks hatch their plans for a desperate last-bell save, as well as pump their disrobed soldiers into the country to stem the losses. Not only have recent Russian reports mentioned a lot of ‘German chatter’ in intercepted comms in Kupyansk, but more and more foreigners have been eliminated in recent strikes.

Two things:

• Simplicius is absolutely correct about the increased talk of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine—we’ve all seen those reports.

• On the other hand, there’s no possible way that those foreigners are being sent to Ukraine by NATO to “stem the [Ukrainian] losses.” Ukrainian losses dwarf the the combined manpower of several of the largest NATO militaries combined.

Something else must explain this undoubtedly factual observation.

For my own part, I noted that there appears to be a renewed emphasis on NATO providing Ukraine with not-quite-but-approaching cutting edge weapons systems, and that there also appears to be a renewed emphasis on longish range attacks, often on civilian targets or infrastructure (but also military targets near Crimea).

My suggestion is that we can put one and one together here and reach a tentative two. Many of these longish range attacks utilize drones or more advanced Western missiles, both of which require technically trained operators with access to IRS support for targeting and guidance. Ukraine’s stunning losses have left it acutely short of trained manpower—many of the draftees/recruits are old or just kids and they’re shipped to the front lines with minimal training. Who will operate the drones at the front lines? Foreigners with technical expertise, that’s who.

Now, there’s a reason why I specified drone operation at the front lines, as opposed to personnel who might be further behind the lines and operating the rather rare deep strikes into Russia (see this article for the most recent example). The Ukrainians are suffering an acute shortage of artillery pieces as well as of the munitions to fire from the artillery tubes. To make up for this shortage, they’re attempting to substitute FPV (First Person View) drones—and that’s where the need for foreign technicians comes in.

Brian Berletic discussed this issue today. He made two key observations in this regard. First, FPV drones are a poor substitute for standard artillery (NATO 155mm or Russian 152mm), both in terms of power but even more so in terms of range—these drones have a typical range of 2-3km, placing them at a severe disadvantage against artillery. Nevertheless, Berletic also noted that they do require trained personnel for their operation.

Now, let’s add in this, which I lifted from Geroman:

Russia concentrated 500 tanks, more than 600 combat vehicles and 40,000 soldiers near Kupyansk in order to recapture the Kharkov region, - Forbes

The Russian group is opposed by approximately 10 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with 20,000 military personnel. But the main problem is not even the difference in numbers, but the shortage of ammunition among the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the publication notes. With a five-fold advantage in shells, Russia can concentrate artillery without fear of Ukrainian counter-battery fire.

 “This situation allows Russia to apply a well-known approach: the systematic destruction of urban areas, making them unprotected,” explained the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight.

Ukraine is trying to compensate for the shortage of ammunition through thousands of FPV drones, but the range of such a drone is only 2-3 kilometers. This is not enough to hunt Russian artillery, which is located 20-25 km from the front.

There are several points to note here. First, the location—the Kharkov region. Kharkov is where, two or three weeks ago, an estimated 60 French military personnel were killed by a Russian missile strike on a hotel. Second, we see the shortage of Ukrainian artillery/ammunition. Third, is the Ukrainian attempt to compensate by using FPV drones—which require technical expertise (probably due to the use of sensitive NATO ISR in their operation).

That, I suspect, explains the increase in foreign personnel, including in the actual combat zones where they are being killed in greatly increased numbers. But those increased numbers are not intended to make up for Ukrainian losses—an impossibility. These are technically trained drone operators who are simply attempting to slow the Russian advance. Slow, but probably not stop. The drones, with their relatively short ranges are probably useful against tanks and armored personnel carriers—although, even so, the ranges of the encounters are probably rather close for comfort, without artillery backup. On the other hand, we can be sure that the Russians are using every means at their disposal—electronic, aerial surveillance, etc.—to hunt down the drones and their operators and call in the artillery. Or their own drones. It’s a stopgap, and likely to lead to high casualties among the operators and their support.

The Russians are fully aware of all this, of course. They’re also working overtime to address the situation. In that regard, Simplicius cites an account that first quotes Putin, and then an assessment of Putin’s words (without attribution). It seems notable that Putin speaks openly yet with seeming confidence on the difficulties presented by drone warfare—confidence that they can be addressed:

Putin is fully aware of the drone issues on the front, and that it's of prime importance to overcome:

“I just talked to the General Staff in the morning.

In one of the areas, of course, the complexity of the situation is connected precisely with unmanned aerial vehicles. This is true almost everywhere.

Unfortunately, there is, to put it mildly, something to work on. This is our Achilles heel, one of them."

These words of the Supreme Commander clearly demonstrate this.

- Vladimir Putin is aware of what is happening at the front. Down to the details. Up to situations that perhaps someone would not want to hide.

- Our President understands what modern warfare is and the importance of using UAVs. In addition, the words “Achilles' heel, one of them” should also be taken quite literally. We have problems with UAVs (attack, FPV, reconnaissance), and not only with them. And all of them need to be solved.

- The President - I think this is very, very important - is not afraid to speak out loud about problems. That is, he does not believe that public discussion of certain difficulties, difficult situations, outright mistakes can somehow prevent us from winning or will somehow negatively affect the general mood. And beautiful reports will somehow help avoid problems in the future.

- Just the opposite. The President understands very clearly what we need to pay attention to so that we can achieve victory earlier and with fewer losses.

Thank God that we have just such a Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Who is not afraid of the truth. God's providence is in this. I'm completely serious."

I’d have to say that NATO continues to play with fire. The Russians will certainly not forget, nor will they forgive those responsible for the war on their nation.