Is The US Putting Out Negotiation Feelers--Or Not?
The Russians are denying that they have entertained such feelers. The initial reports sounded rather definite, but the more recent ones sound much sketchier. For example:
OSINTdefender
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A number of Current and Former-U.S. National Security and State Department Officials, with the Knowledge of the Biden Administration, have reportedly begun to meet over the last few months with Russians who are believed to have Contacts within the Kremlin about the possibly of creating a “Groundwork” for Negotiations to End the War in Ukraine; a Group of these Officials are claimed to have also held a “Secret Meeting” in New York with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov sometime in April to discuss what it would take for the Russians to begin Negotiations.
I understand that these kinds of feelers typically are run through intermediaries for purposes of deniability, but “Russians who are believed to have Contacts within the Kremlin” still sounds rather vague. The Russians specifically and adamantly deny that Lavrov has engaged in any such contacts. I suspect that’s absolutely true, based on the past.
Mercouris says that what really happened was that at the US/EU meeting with several BRICS nations (and a few others, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia) in Copenhagen, which coincided with the Prigozhin farce. The US/EU side tried to get the other countries to agree to put out feelers to Russia, to see whether Russia would enter negotiations. But the response the US/EU got was, 'What's your plan?' And there was no plan!
Well, after all the broken promises of the past, I think one thing is for sure. Russia is not going to waste time on negotiations for the sake of negotiations. They presented draft treaties to the collective West back in December, 2021. I suspect they'll demand something similar from the collective West: ‘Lay your cards on the table like we did or there will be no negotiations’. The West knows what the Russians want—they have it in writing. If the West wants to get negotiations going then it’s up to the West to make a counter proposal. Fair is fair.
Meanwhile Ukraine is complaining that Ukrainian pilots are still not getting training on F-16s as promised. Mercouris thinks what's going on with that is this. US Bradleys are burning on the Ukrainian steppes for all the world to see, the world also knows about the Russians taking out Patriot batteries. The US is now getting cold feet on the F-16 proposal because they don't want the world to see F-16s dropping from the skies in flames. And the same may apply to other Western weapons systems.
I'm getting the sense that we're at or approaching a turning point, just as knowledgeable observers have been saying would happen. Alastair Crooke (note correct spelling) is among those who expect an end before the autumn rains start. We shall see. Clearly the collective West, including the US, is getting antsy.
US is trying to save face with the negotiations claim. It’s just PR showing how reasonable the US is. It’s a reaction to the failure of trying to get the Brics to abandon Russia.
The public failure / destruction of the Patriot Missiles had a major impact. The previous failures were covered up, blaming “software failures”.
Combined with the Bradley, Leopard, and Storm Shadow failures and there is a major pr issue.
Somebody has finally woken up to the fact the Russian Military is improving, while the Western backed Ukrainian Forces are degrading. Russia is attacking rear areas, destroying Western Combatants and equipment.
And the constant Russian meat grinder with no meaningful Ukrainian advances.
And the Nato summit is in 5 days, July 11 and 12.
Plus everyone can see how weak the US is. Other countries leadership notices the trans fetish / obsession of the U.S. military and government.
Plus Biden’s dementia is getting worse, and this is becoming more obvious. His losing battles with teleprompters is unbelievable.
Why is a French jet in Syria / Iraq? Strange.
Swag - Russian strikes killing Westerners included some active duty US forces. And this is panicking the Biden Administration.
Simplicius had another drop:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-7623-zelensky-builds-one-last?utm_source=%2Finbox&utm_medium=reader2
I don't see the Russians accepting any kind of negotiated settlement except one built upon an irrevocable Russian victory in Ukraine. We can't go back to the status quo ante bellum, because before the ink is dry on the settlement, Nuland et al will begin rearming whatever is left of Ukraine and getting up to the same old tricks. Putin knows too that he won't survive any sort of weak deal with the West. I suspect the Russian response will be: "We'll get back to you later in the year when our military steam roller has done its work"