Russia promised a response to the strike on the beach in Crimea on Orthodox Pentecost Sunday. At least a part of that response may be coming into view. We have seen at least two downings of US drones in Syria this week, and there have been rumors of actions taken against US drones over the Black Sea. These actions are very important, because the drones are used for target designation and guidance of precision missiles. Part of the context here is the increased chatter about US and other NATO “contractors” going to Ukraine to operate advanced weapons systems, which will rely on such targeting and guidance—the US is not about to turn over such sensitive tech to the Ukrainians. Of course, as in the past, the chatter about future events probably means the reality is in place—increased numbers of US troops are probably present and operating, replacing dead Ukrainians. Doug Macgregor mentioned yesterday that the Ukrainians suffered 13,000 KIA last week alone. Where US troops go, the tech goes, too.
Now the Russian Ministry of Defense appears to be making their new policy official:
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
 BREAKING
The Russian Ministry of Defense has instructed the Armed Forces to take prompt measures against the American RQ-4B provocative flights.
"The Russian Ministry of Defense notes the increased intensity of flights of US strategic UAV's over the Black Sea, which carry out Reconnaissance and Target designation of high-precision Weapons supplied to the armed forces of Ukraine by Western states to strike Russian targets.
This indicates the increasing involvement of the United States and NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine on the side of the Kyiv regime.
Such flights greatly increase the likelihood of incidents in the airspace with aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which increases the risk of direct confrontation between the alliance and the Russian Federation.
The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Andrei Belousov instructed the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to take prompt response measures to provocations.
NATO countries will be responsible for this."
12:04 AM · Jun 28, 2024
The only known American response so far:
Yesterday FORTE14 literally canceled its mission
The Russians only mention UAVs, not manned aircraft. There’s plenty of that activity still going on. There difference is likely that these manned flights are not involved directly in combat operations—target identification and munitions guidance.
US Air Force/Army gathering Intelligence on Kaliningrad/Russia/Belarus. BRIO66/BRIO68
CL60 ARTEMIS JAKE17
RC-135V Rivet Joint
There is also heavy activity in the Levant, with the daily US/UK flights from Cyprus being supplemented by other NATO aircraft and a German destroyer. Russia, of course, has a significant presence in Syria and will probably be providing increasingly advanced weaponry—through Iran—to Hezbollah.
Interesting visitors today in Pafos, Cyprus
Sweden Air Force C-130H (84005)
Netherlands Air Force C-130H (G-988)
Belgium Air Force A400M (CT-06)
Ireland Air Corps C-295MPA (284)
I mention this activity in light of the meltdown of the US constitutional order, on full display last night. More on that later.
Clearly Putin is leaving room for future escalation. Expect more developments in response to American provocations.
These RQ-4B Global Hawks cost about $130m each.
increased surveillance is one item on the old execution checklist for up coming operations.
No one is dialing down