Is It Free Fall Yet?

Quinnipiac just came out with some new poll numbers for Zhou. Normally you’d describe numbers like these as jaw dropping, or astounding, or … something like that. As it is, it’s more or less what you’d expect:

Varad Mehta

New Quinnipiac poll just dropped, and it can only be described as abysmal for Joe Biden. His job approval drops to 33-54 (A) and 35-55 (RV) compared to 38-53 and 40-54 a week ago. He's at 26-56 with independent voters. On Ukraine he's at 39-48 and 41-49.

74% Of Americans Think Worst Of War In Ukraine Is Yet To Come, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; More Than 8 In 10 Think Vladimir Putin Is A War Criminal | Quinnipiac University Poll

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3843

Joe Biden job approval (strong) Quinnipiac 4/13

A: 33-54 (18-43)
RV: 35-55 (20-45)
I: 26-56 (11-42)
Men: 29-59 (14-48)
Women: 37-50 (21-39)
White: 31-59 (17-49)
W Men: 29-63 (15-52)
W Women: 32-56 (20-47)
White 4-year college: 52-42 (30-35)
White no college: 20-67 (11-56)

Joe Biden job approval (strong) Quinnipiac 4/13 (cont'd)

Black: 63-25 (33-11)
Hispanic: 26-54 (12-41)
Dem: 76-12 (46-6)
18-34: 21-58 (7-35)

The Hispanic numbers are 👀👀👀. I'm not sure I believe them. But he's clearly soft with key Democratic constituencies.

One last note. Quinnipiac has him in positive territory with seniors, 48-46. That is almost certainly wrong. Pollsters overestimated his support with seniors in 2020 and it looks like that's still going on.

• • •

Now here’s the amazing part, per Red State:

Biden does manage to receive high marks from two groups of Americans: White, college-educated women, and African-Americans. …

This version of the Quinnipiac poll (they switch back and forth) did not measure domestic questions about the economy, which is probably a good thing for Biden. If they had, the numbers would have certainly been terrible, and the newest inflation numbers will only add to the discontent.

Related excerpt from Zerohedge:

"I think this is going to be a biblical disaster," one Democratic staffer told The Hill on condition of anonymity. "This is the reality we are in as Democrats and no one wants to face it."

Democrats know the bitter taste of bad midterm results. The party fared dismally during the first midterm elections of President Clinton and President Obama. In 1994, with Clinton in the White House, Democrats lost a net 54 House seats. In 2010, under Obama, they lost 63 seats.

An increasingly gerrymandered Congress makes that kind of wipeout hard to see this year. 

But around Washington, virtually no one expects Democrats to retain their slim House majority. One useful point of comparison is 1982, when inflation was rampant as it is now and Republicans lost a net 26 House seats with President Reagan in the White House. -The Hill

Another issue plaguing Democrats is a flood of immigrants crossing the southern US border - with as many as 18,000 per day anticipated by the Department of Homeland Security after the Biden administration abandons the use of Title 42 in late May - a Trump-era measure which was used to deny entry to migrants during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Biden's aggressive stance against the Russian invasion of Ukraine hasn't translated to a significant polling boost - suggesting Americans aren't looking forward to a long war of attrition.

…

Inside the DNC, Democrats are blaming 'bad messaging' for their abysmal polling.