Iran: Trump's TACO Is All BS

So late last night Trump TACOed from his threat of massive war crimes to force Iran to “surrender.” That initiative by Trump was clearly signaled by this reports:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

11h

BREAKING: The U.S. has made a last minute peace offer to Iran through Qatar, and Iran is now reviewing it, per initial reports.

Iran is highly likely to reject the offer, which means this was another TACO.

That report was shortly thereafter followed by the formal TACO:

I commented last night (Is This Quacking Like A TACO?):

As I understand this, Iran has agreed to open Hormuz—but has not renounced its full control of the strait. Iran has also agreed not to be a nuclear threat—which it never has been. Trump says he wants to make a deal “rapidly”. Whatever “rapidly” means. It thus appears that absolutely nothing has changed except that Trump is saved from a disastrous decision. Well, thank God for small favors.

This morning we get total clarity from Iran. This TACO was either Trump talking to his imaginary Iranian interlocutors again or was just another shameless Trumpian lie.

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

45m

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump’s new claim that Iran has asked for a deal and seeks to agree to it by reopening the Strait of Hormuz, saying “there is no agreement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” adding the US-backed Qatari proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is false and Israeli Channel 12’s claim that Iran FM Araghchi accepted the deal is also completely false, per Fars.

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz remains fully closed under any circumstances, with passage only through the designated route with IRGC Navy permission. No changes have been made to Iran’s policy.

Iran adds every US threat is treated as real, with Iran not backing down and instead using Trump’s ceasefire period to raise combat readiness and strengthen deterrence.

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16m

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump’s new claim Iran agreed to end its nuclear program and open the Strait of Hormuz as a “complete lie,” saying it is a “desperate attempt to manipulate the market,” per Iranian military officials to Mehr News.

Iran adds that it has not requested any halt to the planned attacks, and that it was purely Trump who chose to stop them with false claims of a deal.

So this was a TACO stuffed with bullshit. Yuck! But we’re getting used to this now.

Here’s my guess as to what happened. Iran may be right, that this was simply another but more elaborate ploy to influence the markets. OTOH …

My guess is Netanyahu once again pitched Trump with the fantasy that “Israeli intelligence” had confirmed that just one more massive war crime—cutting off electricity to a modern city of 10 million people—would tip the scales, and Iran would “surrender.” Having bought into this fantasy, Trump summoned his top generals and directed them to prepare to implement this. Having been talked out of a nuclear strike before (that would have been the “end of Iran’s civilization” strike) Trump thought the generals would buy into a massive conventional war crime. Instead, over the course of several days, the generals—and possibly a few sane persons within the regime—pointed out to Trump in forceful terms that

1. This plan was, indeed, a war crime, and

2. Regardless of any moral considerations the consequences of such an action—and Iran’s retaliatory reaction—would be catastrophic for the region, the world, and the US military forces in the region. It is also possible that diplomatic interventions by Russia and China helped tip the scale.

3. If persuasion—as above—failed, the generals may have point blank refused to carry out Trump’s orders.

One way or another, this latest TACO will likely have serious political and geo-political consequences. This is failing regime. As PP pointed out yesterday, sooner rather than later we and the rest of the world will be experiencing serious energy (and other resource) shortages brought on by this reckless Jewish Nationalist war to retain world hegemony. There will be serious consequences.