There's still a lot of humour value in all this: the EU started off planning to send troops to Ukraine to ward of those nastsy Russkies; they end up sending troops to Greenland to deter Uncle Sam. What a clown world!
If Iran has arrested or neutralized foreign-intel assets and seized massive Starlink and other comms deliveries, I'm curious as to why their leadership hasn't already gone on a PR offensive by trotting out whatever irrefutable details (even at a high level, without revealing sources and methods) exist. I would think it would be helpful to them in world opinion to acknowledge that protesters were legitimately in the streets at first over the economic pain wrought by sanctions, but that horrific escalations were all of inorganic, foreign origin. Iranian leadership has made varying statements to these effects, but I'm surprised they haven't presented a single-source, evidence-backed, explicit case. Well, maybe they have and we're just not hearing it in the information flow allowed to reach us, or maybe they've determined, based on past experience, that nobody in the West will listen in any case. Who knows?
How do people who believe Iran didn't inflict significant damage in the 12 Day War parse ***the massive collective military flinch*** the US and Israelis are doing right now just because of the potential of some kind of escalation
Per Jordana's statement, “We prohibit harmful stereotypes about Jewish people—such as claims that Jews control financial, political, or media institutions.”
Well, do they? And if so, why? Funny how ths prohibition did not apply in the last sixty years when having too many white people in a place of employment showed disparate impact, prima facie evidence of unjust racial discrimination by the employer, requiring remedy.
Now that people are noticing which institutions were not subject to disparate impact proceedings... it's time to reverse Griggs? Yeah, okay. It's okay to be white, now. Bill Ackman said so.
I don’t think Trump cares, one way or the other about violating another countries airspace if he decides to engage an attack on Iran.
As we know, Trump doesn’t care anything about international law only what he wants to do, and as he said, he is only restrained by his own morality which he doesn’t have any .
So don’t be fooled by these kind of report coming out I suspect the United States collusion with Israel are going to initiate an attack on Iran. The question is only when.
Are they going to wait to get carrier assets in the area? As Mark pointed out, no doubt there are submarines there with Tomahawk missiles. But it would be disastrous to think that Iran is not going to be prepared to retaliate and do so massively. They will do that in conjunction with Yemen. Between the two of them, they have the missile technology to make it work. Regardless of what happens those two countries are going to lay waste Israel. I think they’re firmly prepared to take whatever damage they have to absorb all this.
In the end, all it’s going to be a disaster of epic proportions, and I believe the end of Israel as we know it. I’ve said this before if this scenario were to play out, Egypt would move its army into a defeated Israel along with Hezbollah.
We all know Trump doesn’t read briefing materials. He doesn’t listen to anybody except the last person he talk to which means that last person is going to be somebody who is going to be promoting war with Iran and that’s BB Netanyahu. It’s almost unbelievable. That he has made what five or six trips to the United States in the last year. Trump rolls out the red carpet every time he comes. And of course, Miriam Adelson is always on the phone to Donald talking him and telling him what he has to do.
I think my point is, let’s not underestimate the stupidity level of Donald Trump and what he might do in his role as emperor of the world who feels totally unrestrained and what he can do.
"So don’t be fooled by these kind of report coming out I suspect the United States collusion with Israel are going to initiate an attack on Iran. The question is only when." Yep, it seems some things never change:
re Parsi: he co-founded and led NIAC, the National Iranian American Council, until he became co-founder of Quincy/Responsible Statecraft.
NIAC is more engaged in communicating with- and activating- Iranian Americans; Quincy engages with highest level American and international policy-makers.
As I understand it, there are two broad divisions in NIAC -- East coast & West coast. Parsi was mentored by Ruhi Ramizani, highly-esteemed dean of Middle East studies at University of Virginia (i.e. East Coast). Most of the people I knew from this community when I lived among them were Muslims (tho Parsi is Zoroastrian, & his wife is descended from holocaust survivors). West Coast Iranians are wealthier; large proportion are Jewish and probably monarchist -- like Rubio and his Cuban connections, they want a return of their glory days in Iran.
NIAC news briefs often register disgust with Iranian government "repression" of protesters; disgust with shut-down of Internet-Starlink; encouragement to protesters to "topple the regime."
Parsi seems to walk the line between the preferences of NIAC constituency vs geopolitical realities by taking a scholarly, analytic approach rather than a politician's stance.
"Trump informed Iran that he has no intention of starting a war". If the Iranians are stupid enough to trust Trump, then they don't deserve to survive. As for Netanyahu, he can't survive without taking out Iran. So, war is still very much on the agenda.
Perhaps it's wishful thinking: I don't think Trump ever intended to wage war on Iran. This stand-down has some elements of the earlier perfidious scheme, but this time,
1. too many people are becoming more aware of the rotten nature of Netanyahu-zionist actions, and claims that Trump is too beholden to his Jewish donors. This may pique Trump's pride in himself as an independent agent, answerable to "his own morality."
2. the nascent coming-togetherness (not willing to say "alliance") of Saudis, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, with Russia-China in the background, has to have caused a recalibration that even dunderhead Hegseth could understand.
3. It enables Trump to FedEx a black eye to Bibi, which may gain approval in Trump's base.
4. Nevertheless, from zionist/Israel perspective, war will remain on the agenda over the long term -- see Mearsheimer-- but Black Swans are increasingly less rare.
 BREAKING: Planned U.S. Strike on Iran Reportedly Halted at the Last Minute
A planned U.S. military strike on Iran was reportedly called off just minutes before execution after Donald Trump personally intervened, according to Walla military analyst Amir Bohbot.
Iranian airspace has since reopened, while assets scrambled from Al Udeid Air Base were ordered to return and remain on standby. The mission was halted at the final stage.
****Trump has told advisers he will only authorize military action that delivers a clear, decisive outcome. Officials reportedly warned that a strike could not guarantee regime collapse and that the U.S. may lack sufficient regional assets to counter a large scale Iranian retaliation.****
Even if one excludes offense - meaning B52 and other air offense significant enough carrier fleets/aircraft unnecessary - to destroy large portions of Iran
add in submarines which I imagine were there - sufficient to destroy Iran
Defense - I understood the carriers were a significant portion of Israeli defense
incoming missile defense both from ship and air
Mentioning there was also a some 500 point from top to bottom drop in the nadsaq 500 top to bottom but at least -300 at end of day - whatever it was
perhaps Trump was reconsidering the market - added in was a rise in gold and silver and oil
as far as I recall
well anyway - my comments as always worth what you paid for them
Iran 9 times larger than Syria or thereabouts as I understand it
Agreed on Yemen I watched it daily and was shocked at the stupidity of trump going back in after Biden - also noting the 15 prior years of Sauds US bombing Yemen
The lack of carriers is what suggested to me that Trump was initially sold on the notion that the Mossad insurrection flop was going to be enough to bring Iran to its knees and only a relatively light strike from the US would finish the job. That and fear of losing a carrier. I suspect the Pentagon was really alarmed at the realities.
I suspect that it's the other surface ships in a CBG that provide the heavy duty defense--the AEGIS ships with their SM missiles.
The Architecture of a Crisis Manufactured by Hostile Foreign Powers.
An exclusive exposé on the hidden forces, intelligence networks, and propaganda machinery fueling turmoil in Iran.
https://felixabt.substack.com/p/the-architecture-of-a-crisis-manufactured
There's still a lot of humour value in all this: the EU started off planning to send troops to Ukraine to ward of those nastsy Russkies; they end up sending troops to Greenland to deter Uncle Sam. What a clown world!
If Iran has arrested or neutralized foreign-intel assets and seized massive Starlink and other comms deliveries, I'm curious as to why their leadership hasn't already gone on a PR offensive by trotting out whatever irrefutable details (even at a high level, without revealing sources and methods) exist. I would think it would be helpful to them in world opinion to acknowledge that protesters were legitimately in the streets at first over the economic pain wrought by sanctions, but that horrific escalations were all of inorganic, foreign origin. Iranian leadership has made varying statements to these effects, but I'm surprised they haven't presented a single-source, evidence-backed, explicit case. Well, maybe they have and we're just not hearing it in the information flow allowed to reach us, or maybe they've determined, based on past experience, that nobody in the West will listen in any case. Who knows?
Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
·
17h
Evacuating bases in the Middle East isn't exactly a sign of strength - it's a sign we're
***deeply worried about the Iranians misinterpreting a show of force as a real attack, opening fire, and killing Americans.***
Which they have every reason in the world to do at this point.
Amerikanets 
@ripplebrain
·
22h
How do people who believe Iran didn't inflict significant damage in the 12 Day War parse ***the massive collective military flinch*** the US and Israelis are doing right now just because of the potential of some kind of escalation
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/13/trump-iron-military-option-00725872
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/11/us-military-warns-trump-against-iran-strikes/
I've been worried that Israel would go nuclear.
BUT as ICBMs are big, slow, and hot, I assume that Iran's air defenses could easily take them down ?
UPDATE: I was very WRONG re speed!:
Most modern ICBMs reach peak speeds of roughly 24,000 km/h
Per Jordana's statement, “We prohibit harmful stereotypes about Jewish people—such as claims that Jews control financial, political, or media institutions.”
Well, do they? And if so, why? Funny how ths prohibition did not apply in the last sixty years when having too many white people in a place of employment showed disparate impact, prima facie evidence of unjust racial discrimination by the employer, requiring remedy.
Now that people are noticing which institutions were not subject to disparate impact proceedings... it's time to reverse Griggs? Yeah, okay. It's okay to be white, now. Bill Ackman said so.
I don’t think Trump cares, one way or the other about violating another countries airspace if he decides to engage an attack on Iran.
As we know, Trump doesn’t care anything about international law only what he wants to do, and as he said, he is only restrained by his own morality which he doesn’t have any .
So don’t be fooled by these kind of report coming out I suspect the United States collusion with Israel are going to initiate an attack on Iran. The question is only when.
Are they going to wait to get carrier assets in the area? As Mark pointed out, no doubt there are submarines there with Tomahawk missiles. But it would be disastrous to think that Iran is not going to be prepared to retaliate and do so massively. They will do that in conjunction with Yemen. Between the two of them, they have the missile technology to make it work. Regardless of what happens those two countries are going to lay waste Israel. I think they’re firmly prepared to take whatever damage they have to absorb all this.
In the end, all it’s going to be a disaster of epic proportions, and I believe the end of Israel as we know it. I’ve said this before if this scenario were to play out, Egypt would move its army into a defeated Israel along with Hezbollah.
We all know Trump doesn’t read briefing materials. He doesn’t listen to anybody except the last person he talk to which means that last person is going to be somebody who is going to be promoting war with Iran and that’s BB Netanyahu. It’s almost unbelievable. That he has made what five or six trips to the United States in the last year. Trump rolls out the red carpet every time he comes. And of course, Miriam Adelson is always on the phone to Donald talking him and telling him what he has to do.
I think my point is, let’s not underestimate the stupidity level of Donald Trump and what he might do in his role as emperor of the world who feels totally unrestrained and what he can do.
"So don’t be fooled by these kind of report coming out I suspect the United States collusion with Israel are going to initiate an attack on Iran. The question is only when." Yep, it seems some things never change:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LhSP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F874362f7-30aa-4292-a4f9-419bdf44c229_1280x720.jpeg
re Parsi: he co-founded and led NIAC, the National Iranian American Council, until he became co-founder of Quincy/Responsible Statecraft.
NIAC is more engaged in communicating with- and activating- Iranian Americans; Quincy engages with highest level American and international policy-makers.
As I understand it, there are two broad divisions in NIAC -- East coast & West coast. Parsi was mentored by Ruhi Ramizani, highly-esteemed dean of Middle East studies at University of Virginia (i.e. East Coast). Most of the people I knew from this community when I lived among them were Muslims (tho Parsi is Zoroastrian, & his wife is descended from holocaust survivors). West Coast Iranians are wealthier; large proportion are Jewish and probably monarchist -- like Rubio and his Cuban connections, they want a return of their glory days in Iran.
NIAC news briefs often register disgust with Iranian government "repression" of protesters; disgust with shut-down of Internet-Starlink; encouragement to protesters to "topple the regime."
Parsi seems to walk the line between the preferences of NIAC constituency vs geopolitical realities by taking a scholarly, analytic approach rather than a politician's stance.
"Trump informed Iran that he has no intention of starting a war". If the Iranians are stupid enough to trust Trump, then they don't deserve to survive. As for Netanyahu, he can't survive without taking out Iran. So, war is still very much on the agenda.
Perhaps it's wishful thinking: I don't think Trump ever intended to wage war on Iran. This stand-down has some elements of the earlier perfidious scheme, but this time,
1. too many people are becoming more aware of the rotten nature of Netanyahu-zionist actions, and claims that Trump is too beholden to his Jewish donors. This may pique Trump's pride in himself as an independent agent, answerable to "his own morality."
2. the nascent coming-togetherness (not willing to say "alliance") of Saudis, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, with Russia-China in the background, has to have caused a recalibration that even dunderhead Hegseth could understand.
3. It enables Trump to FedEx a black eye to Bibi, which may gain approval in Trump's base.
4. Nevertheless, from zionist/Israel perspective, war will remain on the agenda over the long term -- see Mearsheimer-- but Black Swans are increasingly less rare.
I think you can remove the question mark from the title. The big bully, "Uncle Sam" Trump, has been confronted with superior power. See https://www.bitchute.com/video/G5NO1fUcWXOo. Meanwhile, our European NATO partners are sending troops to Greenland. https://www.npr.org/2026/01/15/g-s1-106113/european-troops-arrive-greenland
You have to laugh. Who will invoke Article 5 first, the US or the rest of NATO?
https://sonar21.com/us-ramping-up-to-attack-iran-but/
Confirmation of my spec?
Defence Index @Defence_Index
 BREAKING: Planned U.S. Strike on Iran Reportedly Halted at the Last Minute
A planned U.S. military strike on Iran was reportedly called off just minutes before execution after Donald Trump personally intervened, according to Walla military analyst Amir Bohbot.
Iranian airspace has since reopened, while assets scrambled from Al Udeid Air Base were ordered to return and remain on standby. The mission was halted at the final stage.
****Trump has told advisers he will only authorize military action that delivers a clear, decisive outcome. Officials reportedly warned that a strike could not guarantee regime collapse and that the U.S. may lack sufficient regional assets to counter a large scale Iranian retaliation.****
Doubtful..sounds more like after-the-fact speculation.
Anything "wound down" at the last moment would still have been evident in a "wind up".
No carriers on station.. no Rivet Joints..no reports of "israeli" movements..nothingburger, you called it.
No carriers on station
Even if one excludes offense - meaning B52 and other air offense significant enough carrier fleets/aircraft unnecessary - to destroy large portions of Iran
add in submarines which I imagine were there - sufficient to destroy Iran
Defense - I understood the carriers were a significant portion of Israeli defense
incoming missile defense both from ship and air
Mentioning there was also a some 500 point from top to bottom drop in the nadsaq 500 top to bottom but at least -300 at end of day - whatever it was
perhaps Trump was reconsidering the market - added in was a rise in gold and silver and oil
as far as I recall
well anyway - my comments as always worth what you paid for them
just my two cents
Iran is a huge, mountainous nation, three times the size of France.
The US cannot "destroy Iran" with conventional forces, it's not a serious argument.
The US Navy was recently driven out of the Red Sea, TWICE, by Yemen, a nation that doesn't even have a navy..Iran is a different kettle of fish.
point taken I looked it up for details
Iran 9 times larger than Syria or thereabouts as I understand it
Agreed on Yemen I watched it daily and was shocked at the stupidity of trump going back in after Biden - also noting the 15 prior years of Sauds US bombing Yemen
The lack of carriers is what suggested to me that Trump was initially sold on the notion that the Mossad insurrection flop was going to be enough to bring Iran to its knees and only a relatively light strike from the US would finish the job. That and fear of losing a carrier. I suspect the Pentagon was really alarmed at the realities.
I suspect that it's the other surface ships in a CBG that provide the heavy duty defense--the AEGIS ships with their SM missiles.
Agreed - I think that was part of his bluster
" Iran we have your back " " Iran we will kill people that kill protestors"
And he thought maybe like Assad it was enough for the country to go crazy and the leadership would fold or leave
Very true about the carrier - I did not think of that
that had to weigh on their minds
if they attacked and the result was a sunken carrier
a. it would prove carriers value or lack thereof
b. it would send a real message to US citizens - they may not like
As the old board game commercials ended, "You sunk my battleship!"
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Arab governments believe US-Iran tensions have "de-escalated" and US talks with Iran are likely to continue.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and Egypt were all reportedly involved in de-escalating tensions between the US and Iran.
We have to de-escalate tensions so we have a better chance at mounting a surprise attack. Or a false flag.
Good luck:
Israel Channel 12 - American officials to Reuters: We want to see Turkey and "Israel" rebuild their relations.
We want to see Turkey and "Israel" rebuild their relations.
Perhaps That means come to an agreement on the split of Syria
Re-Written ' We want to see Turkey acquiesce to Israel taking a large part of Syria '