What follows below is the (edited) transcript of an interview with geopolitical analyst Trita Parsi. As you can tell from his name, Parsi comes from a Zoroastrian family. His father was a political dissident under both the Shah and Khomeini’s new Islamic Republic, and the family ultimately moved to the Persian diaspora in the West. Parsi is regarded as a top explainer of Iran to the West. This interview is of particular importance because Parsi—like many Western analysts—sees a second Jewish Nationalist onslaught against Iran coming before the end of 2025. In that light he analyzes the current situation, but also within the broader context of the Anglo-Zionist drive to dismantle the entire post-WW2 international order of international law before BRICS gains the leverage to insist that the Anglo-Zioist Empire should also conform to law—rather than its own “rules-based” order. Along the way, Parsi has a lot of insights to offer regarding not only geopolitics but also regarding the internal politics of the Islamic Republic.
- Iran hit Israel much harder than is being noted here, and that was while it was hoarding its missiles. Israel is a very small nation and could be rapidly brought to its knees by hits on its few refineries, water treatment plants and other critical infrastructure. In an existential struggle Iran will go there.
- Iran is a colossal and mountainous country, and the US will not have bases within the GCC or Iraq that can be used to attack Iran. The "stealth" bombers are targetable by the latest Russian and Chinese AA batteries that Iran may now have.
- Russia and China may be surprisingly ready to get involved given the criticality of Iran to the Eurasian project
- A full scale US air attack upon Iran would erupt on US bases and at home in the US. The political fallout would be colossal even before the mid-terms.
- The interviewee is a diasporac Iranian opponent of the Iranian state apparatus, so I would not fully trust their view of the legitimacy and support domestically for it.
Israel may still attack, and the US may still join in but I see a lower probability than the interviewee.
I agree that there could be hope. All my usual experts are convinced that there will be a new attack on Iran, but the risks do seem very high. For Israel--but also for Trump. Trump's allowable risk level, at least as I see it, is low. Parsi, of course, is not a military expert.
Mark, you are so very thoughtful in your writing, with beautifully articulate language that reveals meaning by opening doors within a reader's mind, to consider for himself/herself all the meaning of the expression of your thoughts on a multitude of subjects matter inside an over-riding topic of analysis by yourself and the other writers whose insights you kindly share with your audience herein. That you provided a humongous portion of a another serious thinker's thoughts as spoken in his interview with Mouin Rabbani and Bassam Haddad is a God-send of generosity on your part.
""""" So naturally that would lead you to think, 'Well, in that case I will need some alternative instruments to be able to protect myself, but also to constrain those rivals,' and that's where international law and the multilateral system actually comes in. """"
My opinion, this is key and the US greatest error -
What on earth is the US thinking = Trump is putting us in a position where there will be No UN instruments able to protect us and constrain Russia China in the future
I have asked myself this question time and time again for some 6 months now
""""""""""""""""""" Is the West going to set aside that ICJ ruling of the mother of all crimes that is genocide? And if so, that means that it will sacrifice ... so much of the entire world order. And for what? To protect Israel as it commits genocide. Is that worth it? """""""""""""""
---- >>>> reminder there was already a ruling of " plausible genocide " and the US then put sanctions on the prosecutors, judges, and countries that were assisting the court
"""""""""""""""""""""""" We're going to sacrifice all of that to protect Israel because it's committing genocide as if that is something worthy of protecting? """""""""""""""
---- >>>> I think the answer is YES ! US will deny genocide no matter the determination
Does anyone believe that Because the UN / ICJ says " Genocide Formally " US is going to stop - ' Oh sorry , we thought it was something else, now that you say it is genocide, OK I guess your right, we will stop '
And there appears reasonably and rationally that there can be only one reason why - One Reason why the US would give up it's viability/credibility in it's entirety ( whatever little is left )
The US is desperate, and there is no other way --- The US not only wants, but feels it Needs Must Have Greater Israel Must Have a large military base in Israel where it can antagonize and destroy Russia China Iran Brick and Road
It can be the only reason - US needs a base - where they can operate freely but also where they can hire proxies like ISIS and run a whole proxy war against Russia China Iran
---------- >> The Genocide is So Outrageous So " In your Face " So published by the media,
It angers our allies even the EU is speaking against it whilst begging US not to leave Ukraine --- that's pretty big ---- The EU is risking angering US and going against them in Israel whilst begging their protection in Ukraine
My Conclusion: The object facts show the US wants Greater Israel as Much as - and MORE than Israel does - there can be no other explanation at this point in time --- given the amount of savagery and disgrace
I agree with you, and from the transcript of T Parsi, I wrote down that paragraph of which you quoted him. The MAGA outliers such as M.T.Greene, T. Carlson, and honest reporters and journalists, are speaking outloud the name of "mother of all crimes", genocide, which will be heard, later on understood, by all of the citizens of Western countries, so that the governments cannot continue to allow themselves, nor Israel, to continue in genocide. Keep writing of this crime; keep talking of it because it matters
Parsi says "[Iran knows] that their only way of dispelling Israel's fantasy of turning Iran into the type of a country they can 'mow the grass' with--to use their own expression--is to make it as costly as possible for Israel in this next round."
It really is Israel's own polite euphemism to describe managing threats by killing key figures and disrupting supply chains.
Also infiltrating supply chains in order to blow up key figures and their families and passersby.
This "military superiority" is then a deterrent. We can kill you any time any where, you are not safe arriving for negotiations in Iraq or Syria or Lebanon or Qatar or....
It has been unpleasant to hear Americans begin using the term "mow the grass", as a WSJ columnist did recently in explaining the need to destroy the Venezuelans in a boat somewhere south of the Gulf of America. We have to fight them down there so we don't have to fight them up here?
We have to stop the narco-terrorists from killing innocent Americans... who were just trying to buy pills on street corners. Blowing up Venezuelan boats deters all other narco-terrorists from even thinking about bringing terrorism to our shores... and delivering the pain-killing drugs we demand on street corners.
We'll tackle Sinaloa very soon, any moment. Watch out, Claudia Sheinbaum, you may be next for regime change to protect Americans.
Additional Areas that discredited the rules based order:
- Using the International Criminal Court against Putin
- blowing up Nordstream
- Seizing Russian foreign exchange reserves
- cutting off Russia from swift and other parts of the financial system
- allowing civilian attacks by Ukraine
- Kosovo intervention vs Ukraine
- the heavy handed use of financial control to back Western Policies.
All the above showed there is one set of rules for the West, and another for everyone else that can be broken at will.
And it’s leading to huge de- dollarization for cross border transactions. So many countries are wondering if they are next. And the reason for their targeting could be environmental, lgbt rights, etc.
Biden started office using Khashogi as a weapon against the Saudi Leadership. Along with the anti fossil fuel stance. Plus the Houthi Saudi War. The US Saudi relationship suffered.
I’m not sure Israel is deliberating trying to destroy the current order. Israel has had a long history of assassination and mowing the lawn to reduce potential threats.
A Tom Luongo podcast mentioned the damage from Iranian attacks in Israel is much more severe than reported. And much more targeted. I question if a round three would result in Israeli mass casualties.
Richard, the discussion among the three seriously knowledgeable men centered around the real geopolitics of Iran, not the Israeli-Palestinian conflict per se. However, Parsi addressed the over-arching plan of US-Israel "joined at the hip" destroyers of nations and nation states in this brief exchange of thoughts---
" If the Israelis have no constraints from the American side and the United States is not going to stop Israel if it does something not just against Lebanon, not just against Syria, not just against the Palestinians, but also against others, then what is your protection against Israel? And today when Israel struck Doha, I think we saw the circle come complete because here you had a situation in which either the United States gave the Israelis a green light or it was informed at the last minute and it chose not to stop Israel--or it couldn't stop Israel and wasn't even informed about it in due time.
"QUESTION: Can Israel come back from from everything it's been doing for the past two years on top of the prior 77 years? And if not, is this the reason it has ramped up its genocidal push with collective starvation and outright ethnic cleansing policies as though it has a limited window of opportunity? …
T PARSI: Let me put it this way. First of all, I don't think Israel can come back. I think after this, well, let me put it this way. I think Israel has lost an entire generation of Americans and they're not coming back."
I agree. I don't think Israel can come back. At least I hope not. Israel as a state must be consigned to history. I foresee a unified Palestine, demilitarized, under international law, with freedom of religion for all and restitution to the people who have been persecuted. What stands in the way is the criminality of the US regime.
I will keep praying that your outlook, profoundly stated, is manifested in reality. Just imagining what "unified Palestine...and restitution to the people who have been persecuted" is a vision to hope for and work for, by everyone in this world.
-Mearsheimer is a China hawk; imo, is overly-committed to his intellectual framework; and (imo) sentimentally biased toward Israel. This analysis does not seem to consider Israel's attack on Qatar which, despite the Kirk distraction, does seem to be causing some Arab states to consider that Israel is a greater threat than Iran; and that closer relationship with the BRICS seems more advantageous than with USA/West/Abraham Accords.
nb. Parsi was mentored by (the late) Ruhi Ramazani, much-admired 'dean' of Middle East studies at University of Virginia (back before UVa was overtaken by the Zelikow contingent).
Also interesting to note that Parsi's wife is Jewish and descended from holocaust survivors.
I'm about halfway through. This is good insight. I'm thinking about a phrase that Sasha Stone uses, "the fourth turning." I don't know much about the fourth turning, but it's coming to mind. My own words might be inflection point or a crossroads. This emergence of a multipolar world.
I admit to knowing relatively little about it. From what I have read I believe its popular allure is because: 1) It purports to provide a macro framework for explaining societal and economic uncertainties we have all felt in the West for quite some time now and for bringing those uncertainties to a culmination; and 2) It is based on the notion that everything is cyclical, whether it be in natural sciences, social sciences, or economics. There is ample evidence to support this notion and so it provides an underlying dictum of sorts supporting the overarching theory. A dictum which is both facile and somewhat insulated from criticism, IMO.
I believe that things are not quite so simple. I prefer to place my faith in God's active involvement in history and that His involvement is destined to be "at just the right time," rather than placing my faith in scientific trend or cycle analysis.
Aside from that, there are always unpredictable variables introduced to the surprise of everyone, often resulting from various human failures, which some of us refer to as "sin."
I generally agree, but some disagreements:
- Iran hit Israel much harder than is being noted here, and that was while it was hoarding its missiles. Israel is a very small nation and could be rapidly brought to its knees by hits on its few refineries, water treatment plants and other critical infrastructure. In an existential struggle Iran will go there.
- Iran is a colossal and mountainous country, and the US will not have bases within the GCC or Iraq that can be used to attack Iran. The "stealth" bombers are targetable by the latest Russian and Chinese AA batteries that Iran may now have.
- Russia and China may be surprisingly ready to get involved given the criticality of Iran to the Eurasian project
- A full scale US air attack upon Iran would erupt on US bases and at home in the US. The political fallout would be colossal even before the mid-terms.
- The interviewee is a diasporac Iranian opponent of the Iranian state apparatus, so I would not fully trust their view of the legitimacy and support domestically for it.
Israel may still attack, and the US may still join in but I see a lower probability than the interviewee.
I agree that there could be hope. All my usual experts are convinced that there will be a new attack on Iran, but the risks do seem very high. For Israel--but also for Trump. Trump's allowable risk level, at least as I see it, is low. Parsi, of course, is not a military expert.
Mark, you are so very thoughtful in your writing, with beautifully articulate language that reveals meaning by opening doors within a reader's mind, to consider for himself/herself all the meaning of the expression of your thoughts on a multitude of subjects matter inside an over-riding topic of analysis by yourself and the other writers whose insights you kindly share with your audience herein. That you provided a humongous portion of a another serious thinker's thoughts as spoken in his interview with Mouin Rabbani and Bassam Haddad is a God-send of generosity on your part.
I've read it, now, with gratitude; thank you
Wow! Thanks!
Thanks Mark great read
I also found this sentence particularly important
""""" So naturally that would lead you to think, 'Well, in that case I will need some alternative instruments to be able to protect myself, but also to constrain those rivals,' and that's where international law and the multilateral system actually comes in. """"
My opinion, this is key and the US greatest error -
What on earth is the US thinking = Trump is putting us in a position where there will be No UN instruments able to protect us and constrain Russia China in the future
Trump's US does not think, rather it does as Trump does, that is Bomb's Away! Whooooo boy!
Terribly short sighted.
I have asked myself this question time and time again for some 6 months now
""""""""""""""""""" Is the West going to set aside that ICJ ruling of the mother of all crimes that is genocide? And if so, that means that it will sacrifice ... so much of the entire world order. And for what? To protect Israel as it commits genocide. Is that worth it? """""""""""""""
---- >>>> reminder there was already a ruling of " plausible genocide " and the US then put sanctions on the prosecutors, judges, and countries that were assisting the court
"""""""""""""""""""""""" We're going to sacrifice all of that to protect Israel because it's committing genocide as if that is something worthy of protecting? """""""""""""""
---- >>>> I think the answer is YES ! US will deny genocide no matter the determination
Does anyone believe that Because the UN / ICJ says " Genocide Formally " US is going to stop - ' Oh sorry , we thought it was something else, now that you say it is genocide, OK I guess your right, we will stop '
And there appears reasonably and rationally that there can be only one reason why - One Reason why the US would give up it's viability/credibility in it's entirety ( whatever little is left )
The US is desperate, and there is no other way --- The US not only wants, but feels it Needs Must Have Greater Israel Must Have a large military base in Israel where it can antagonize and destroy Russia China Iran Brick and Road
It can be the only reason - US needs a base - where they can operate freely but also where they can hire proxies like ISIS and run a whole proxy war against Russia China Iran
---------- >> The Genocide is So Outrageous So " In your Face " So published by the media,
It angers our allies even the EU is speaking against it whilst begging US not to leave Ukraine --- that's pretty big ---- The EU is risking angering US and going against them in Israel whilst begging their protection in Ukraine
My Conclusion: The object facts show the US wants Greater Israel as Much as - and MORE than Israel does - there can be no other explanation at this point in time --- given the amount of savagery and disgrace
.
I agree with you, and from the transcript of T Parsi, I wrote down that paragraph of which you quoted him. The MAGA outliers such as M.T.Greene, T. Carlson, and honest reporters and journalists, are speaking outloud the name of "mother of all crimes", genocide, which will be heard, later on understood, by all of the citizens of Western countries, so that the governments cannot continue to allow themselves, nor Israel, to continue in genocide. Keep writing of this crime; keep talking of it because it matters
That Said perhaps I am naive
However, to believe otherwise, one must believe 70 % of Senate and Congress, many of them husbands / wives and fathers / mothers and grandparents
Will sell their soul for a campaign contribution
Will sell their families respect and future for a campaign contribution today
Good God I hope I am correct, and people so willing to sell their soul dignity and respect - in such a high percentage - does not exist
.
Parsi says "[Iran knows] that their only way of dispelling Israel's fantasy of turning Iran into the type of a country they can 'mow the grass' with--to use their own expression--is to make it as costly as possible for Israel in this next round."
It really is Israel's own polite euphemism to describe managing threats by killing key figures and disrupting supply chains.
Also infiltrating supply chains in order to blow up key figures and their families and passersby.
This "military superiority" is then a deterrent. We can kill you any time any where, you are not safe arriving for negotiations in Iraq or Syria or Lebanon or Qatar or....
It has been unpleasant to hear Americans begin using the term "mow the grass", as a WSJ columnist did recently in explaining the need to destroy the Venezuelans in a boat somewhere south of the Gulf of America. We have to fight them down there so we don't have to fight them up here?
We have to stop the narco-terrorists from killing innocent Americans... who were just trying to buy pills on street corners. Blowing up Venezuelan boats deters all other narco-terrorists from even thinking about bringing terrorism to our shores... and delivering the pain-killing drugs we demand on street corners.
We'll tackle Sinaloa very soon, any moment. Watch out, Claudia Sheinbaum, you may be next for regime change to protect Americans.
Good information, some slight disagreements
Additional Areas that discredited the rules based order:
- Using the International Criminal Court against Putin
- blowing up Nordstream
- Seizing Russian foreign exchange reserves
- cutting off Russia from swift and other parts of the financial system
- allowing civilian attacks by Ukraine
- Kosovo intervention vs Ukraine
- the heavy handed use of financial control to back Western Policies.
All the above showed there is one set of rules for the West, and another for everyone else that can be broken at will.
And it’s leading to huge de- dollarization for cross border transactions. So many countries are wondering if they are next. And the reason for their targeting could be environmental, lgbt rights, etc.
Biden started office using Khashogi as a weapon against the Saudi Leadership. Along with the anti fossil fuel stance. Plus the Houthi Saudi War. The US Saudi relationship suffered.
I’m not sure Israel is deliberating trying to destroy the current order. Israel has had a long history of assassination and mowing the lawn to reduce potential threats.
A Tom Luongo podcast mentioned the damage from Iranian attacks in Israel is much more severe than reported. And much more targeted. I question if a round three would result in Israeli mass casualties.
Thanks the effort but way too many generalities. What about Greater Israel?
Richard, the discussion among the three seriously knowledgeable men centered around the real geopolitics of Iran, not the Israeli-Palestinian conflict per se. However, Parsi addressed the over-arching plan of US-Israel "joined at the hip" destroyers of nations and nation states in this brief exchange of thoughts---
" If the Israelis have no constraints from the American side and the United States is not going to stop Israel if it does something not just against Lebanon, not just against Syria, not just against the Palestinians, but also against others, then what is your protection against Israel? And today when Israel struck Doha, I think we saw the circle come complete because here you had a situation in which either the United States gave the Israelis a green light or it was informed at the last minute and it chose not to stop Israel--or it couldn't stop Israel and wasn't even informed about it in due time.
"QUESTION: Can Israel come back from from everything it's been doing for the past two years on top of the prior 77 years? And if not, is this the reason it has ramped up its genocidal push with collective starvation and outright ethnic cleansing policies as though it has a limited window of opportunity? …
T PARSI: Let me put it this way. First of all, I don't think Israel can come back. I think after this, well, let me put it this way. I think Israel has lost an entire generation of Americans and they're not coming back."
I agree. I don't think Israel can come back. At least I hope not. Israel as a state must be consigned to history. I foresee a unified Palestine, demilitarized, under international law, with freedom of religion for all and restitution to the people who have been persecuted. What stands in the way is the criminality of the US regime.
I will keep praying that your outlook, profoundly stated, is manifested in reality. Just imagining what "unified Palestine...and restitution to the people who have been persecuted" is a vision to hope for and work for, by everyone in this world.
Mearsheimer covers Israel thoroughly in this hour-long AI enhanced analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpsfTG8XuI
-Mearsheimer is a China hawk; imo, is overly-committed to his intellectual framework; and (imo) sentimentally biased toward Israel. This analysis does not seem to consider Israel's attack on Qatar which, despite the Kirk distraction, does seem to be causing some Arab states to consider that Israel is a greater threat than Iran; and that closer relationship with the BRICS seems more advantageous than with USA/West/Abraham Accords.
nb. Parsi was mentored by (the late) Ruhi Ramazani, much-admired 'dean' of Middle East studies at University of Virginia (back before UVa was overtaken by the Zelikow contingent).
Also interesting to note that Parsi's wife is Jewish and descended from holocaust survivors.
May you live in interesting times.
Alastair Crooke's video with Judge Nap plays into this from the BRICS angle. The Kirk assassination does, too.
I'm about halfway through. This is good insight. I'm thinking about a phrase that Sasha Stone uses, "the fourth turning." I don't know much about the fourth turning, but it's coming to mind. My own words might be inflection point or a crossroads. This emergence of a multipolar world.
I regret we're the bad guys now.
The "Fourth Turning" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fourth_Turning) has received A LOT of press the last few years, especially.
I admit to knowing relatively little about it. From what I have read I believe its popular allure is because: 1) It purports to provide a macro framework for explaining societal and economic uncertainties we have all felt in the West for quite some time now and for bringing those uncertainties to a culmination; and 2) It is based on the notion that everything is cyclical, whether it be in natural sciences, social sciences, or economics. There is ample evidence to support this notion and so it provides an underlying dictum of sorts supporting the overarching theory. A dictum which is both facile and somewhat insulated from criticism, IMO.
I believe that things are not quite so simple. I prefer to place my faith in God's active involvement in history and that His involvement is destined to be "at just the right time," rather than placing my faith in scientific trend or cycle analysis.
Aside from that, there are always unpredictable variables introduced to the surprise of everyone, often resulting from various human failures, which some of us refer to as "sin."
Good thoughts.
The Bible does speak of seasons and the old ways passing away. It also speaks of nothing new under the sun.