In Search Of An Endgame

Yesterday Alexander Mercouris of The Duran did a long Youtube video that contains some provocative discussion. We’ve already noted (in comments) Mercouris’ closing remarks (last 10 minutes or so) regarding the Boris Johnson resignation and Mercouris’ views of Johnson and his disgraceful role with regard to Ukraine. We’ll get back to that a bit later from a specific point of view. Here’s a link to the video:

Putin Confirms Ukr Offensive, Big Ukr Losses; Leo2s, Bradleys Destroyed, Realists Call Peace Talks

It’s that last part that interested me. Mercouris is discussing an article at Foreign Affairs by Samuel Charap. Charap is an ueber-Neocon. While I can’t tell you that Charap was an actual architect of the war on Russia policy, I can definitely tell you that he has been an indefatibable proponent of the war for years.

Part of being a Neocon is never admitting that you’re a goofball, that you’ve been wrong on a catastrophic scale, that you’ve sold the American public a pack of fantasies that are having disastrous consequences. You simply come up with a new, recalibrated shtick. Thus, Mercouris discusses (beginning around the 52 minute mark) Charap’s new article:

An Unwinnable War

Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine

Now they tell us! you say. But no. Actually he defends the US going to war with Russia without an endgame—it’s just that we’ve reached the point now at which, well, maybe and endgame might be desirable. Notice: he says “endgame”, not “off ramp.” What he’s actually proposing is more of the same old same old—a “frozen conflict”, a ceasefire. Because he says that neither side can win this war. The problem is that no one told Vladimir Putin that. Long ago Putin warned the US that the longer this war went on, the more red lines the US crossed, the higher would be the price of peace. And sure enough, Putin—who never bluffs—is now openly stating that the “Kiev regime” isn’t a legitimate government. Master of the bleeding obvious? But he avoided saying that for a long time. Putin doesn’t take these rhetorical steps without having his ducks in a row, so he’s never going to have to back down. Anyone who thinks he’ll back off and agree to a ceasefire is cruising for a major wakeup call.

Now, Mercouris isn’t stupid. He understands that Charap’s proposed “endgame” is nonsense. It’s just that he thinks it may be a signal that even the Neocons are starting to come to their senses. He says there’s another article—not for public viewing—at the Rand Corp. that discusses this same problem: How can the US Establishment extricate themselves from this monumental screwup? Mercouris sees this as at least a possibly hopeful sign that an internal Deep State debate is getting started.

Larry Johnson this morning appears to be addressing this same article, because his remarks closely track Charap’s argument. Johnson is unimpressed:

I am fascinated by some of the news reports and pundit commentary who insist that a Ukrainian failure means that a long, stalemated war is the likely outcome. That opinion is so stupid and so divorced from reality that it beggars the mind in trying to come up with an explanation for such nonsense. Ukraine is running out of critical weapons, such as artillery, tanks, and fixed wing aircraft — and these losses are accelerating — and Kiev has no good prospects for replacing them. Ukraine also is running out of trained manpower. How does one continue to pursue a stagnant war when the very things you require to conduct and sustain such a war are in short supply and becoming more scarce?

Putin knows this. And, in fairness, Mercouris does, too. In another video from today Mercouris expands on the vast discrepancy in manufacturing output of war materiels between Russia and any combination of countries in the collective West, including the US. The gap is not closing. It’s widening. And that leads to by far the most revealing passage in Charap’s article:

… the task of giving the Ukrainians a chance at a successful offensive campaign is already straining the resources of Western governments. But even if it goes well, a counteroffensive will not produce a militarily decisive outcome.

The tell on how true that statement is, is that what the West has gifted to Ukraine for their offensive against a dominant Russian military is a hodge podge of disparate and often second or third rate equipment.

In that regard, Andrei Martyanov links to the now notorious talk that Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, gave in Sweden six months ago, in January, 2023. In that talk—even as state media in the West were parroting the propaganda line about the glorious Ukraine offensive in the fall that had pushed Russia back from Kharkov, and anticipating the Spring offensive that might reach Moscow—Cavoli was saying: We’re in over our heads. Or to put it in his words:

The heavy casualties and massive ammunition consumption seen during the war in Ukraine has top NATO commanders worried.

NATO was created in 1949 to stop a massive Soviet invasion of Western Europe, and it has added new members since the end of the Cold War, but many of its militaries shrank in the decades after the Soviet threat disappeared. Now the scale and intensity of the fighting in Ukraine has raised questions about the alliance's ability to fight a big-unit war against Russia.

"Scale, scale, scale," US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told a Swedish defense conference in January. "The magnitude of this war is incredible. …”

"The scale of this war is out of proportion with all of our recent thinking," said Cavoli, who is also head of US European Command. "But it is real and we must contend with it."

…

"Production capacity remains vital, absolutely vital," Cavoli said. "A healthy and elastic defense industrial base is just as important" as the number of troops. …

Which circles back (!) to Johnson’s point. Whom does Charap thinks he’s kidding when he says that Russia can’t win? NATO/Ukraine are seeing their war making capacity go up in smoke, while Russia is churning out ever more weapons and munitions. Mercouris points out that the USMC has been largely denuded of M777 systems, which have been sent to Ukraine where the Russian’s are systematically destroying them. Those systems will not be replaced any time soon, while the Russian artillery systems are constantly increasing.

The NATO onslaught against Serbia in the 90s told Russia that they were in the crosshairs of the West. As a result Russia spent 20 years preparing for the endgame that they saw coming. The West didn’t prepare. Charap says America has just been reacting to Russian aggression and war crimes, so an “endgame” as an after-thought was perfectly reasonable. In reality, of course, the US instigated the war in the belief that the endgame would be Russia’s collapse under the impact of sanctions shock and awe. There wasn’t really any Plan B. What’s really going on now is a scramble for a new endgame, now that it’s clear to the entire world that the sanctions war has blown up in the West’s face. And the Neocons somehow think they can convince Putin to give them a way out of the hole they’ve dug the West into. I’m not holding my breath, and I hope no readers are, either.

Meanwhile, back in DC, our Ruling Class are enabling more war in the face of all signs of impending disaster:

Debt Ceiling Deal Puts No Limits on Ukraine Aid

The debt ceiling agreement reached between the White House and House Republicans places no constraints on spending on the war in Ukraine, a White House official told Bloomberg.

The $113 billion that has been authorized to spend on the war in Ukraine so far was passed as supplemental emergency funds, which is exempt from the spending caps that are part of the debt ceiling deal.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, funding “designated as an emergency requirement or for overseas contingency operations would not be constrained, and certain other funding would not be subject to the caps.” The deal suspends the nation’s debt limit through January 1, 2025.

…

The only people who can put a stop to this are ordinary Americans.