If It's Thursday Are There Talks In Islamabad?

I’ll be taking most of the morning off, but I wanted to catch up a bit on the crazy events. First, I believe most readers are somewhat familiar with Robert Barnes’ assessment of Trump’s mental condition. Barnes claims to be close to people who are close to Veep Vance and has been giving interviews—for some weeks or even months—on this topic. In Barnes’ narrative Vance goes around wearing a white hat, when he’s not giving public statements that completely support the most extreme actions of the Trump regime. Larry Johnson has interviewed Barnes and provides this summary of Barnes’ basic narrative:

Donald Trump began exhibiting signs of early dementia in September 2025… He frequently confabulates, he routinely loses his temper and unleashes screaming rants, and he is incapable of doing critical thinking. According to Barnes, Trump’s senior White House staff are behaving like children with an abusive, drug-addled father… i.e., they walk on egg shells fearful of saying anything that might ignite Trump’s rage.

Trump genuinely believes that the US has vanquished Iran and he does not comprehend the massive economic damage that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is doing to the global economy. His declining mental state is dangerous because he is prone to make rash decisions based solely on his emotional state at the time.

JD Vance reportedly is working feverishly behind the scenes to arrange a new meeting with the Iranians in Islamabad. Iran is insisting that there must be a ceasefire between the Israelis and Hezbollah in Lebanon before another meeting with Vance. Late Wednesday night in Tel Aviv, the Israeli Security Council rejected the ceasefire and vowed to continue with its invasion of southern Lebanon.

I have to say that, based on what appear to be reliable reports regarding the way Vance conducted his role in Islamabad the last time, it’s difficult to imagine what positive role he can play—assuming he is so inclined, as Barnes maintains.

I’m on record, in the past, to the effect that Trump isn’t actually stupid, per se. He is, IMO, probably even above average in intelligence. The problematic behavior he has exhibited throughout his adult life is, rather, due to character flaws that have long been on open display—especially a strong narcissistic streak that leads him to regularly gamble on risky actions to bolster his grandiose ego needs. These problems probably also explain the astonishing degree to which Trump indulges in wildly inappropriate rhetoric and even openly lies. It’s gotten to the point that it’s now difficult to distinguish what Trump truly believes from his deliberate gaslighting.

I certainly agree that it’s entirely possible, even likely, that aged based mental changes are exacerbating these tendencies and character flaws and leading to repeated disastrous judgment calls. I continue to believe that, within normal limits, Trump understands that his actions have led to disastrous results. However, in line with his character flaws and age related decline in his ability to take corrective action—especially recognizing his own responsibility—his reaction is twofold. First, he seeks devious ways to avoid responsibility and to manipulate those who oppose him. This is entirely in line with his past. However, second, he now—to a degree that is exaggerated beyond his past behavior—lashes out inappropriately against all opposition in counterproductive ways. Thus we see unstable and wild swings of mood and emotional reactions, tempered at times by a return to his shrewder past. The trend is clearly downward, and especially because his narcissism has led him to surround himself to an unprecedented degree with conniving and incompetent ass kissers—people who are willing to feed his ego, but often for their own fanatical purposes. And Jewish Nationalists figure they’ve just bought Trump and the GOP—and lots more war and killing:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

14h

JUST IN: Israeli megadonor Miriam Adelson gives $40 million to Republican super PACs for midterm elections.

For these reasons I’m very pessimistic about any peaceful resolution to Trump’s war on Iran. I believe that Trump is still quite capable of understanding that any attempt at a TACO in this situation will fool no one. No walkaway is possible without a huge loss of US strategic depth, both in purely military terms (loss of bases, logistic hubs, etc.) as well as in financial and diplomatic influence. Trump has well and truly boxed himself in. A TACO move may be theoretically possible, but seems very unlikely in view of Trump’s character flaws, which manifest in his adamant refusal to acknowledge mistakes, or even responsibility for his decisions and actions. He continues to double down on disastrous mistakes, to the extent that corrective action to reverse the effects of those mistakes is now impossible in the real world.

That is especially true in the economic realm. I’ll close with a few examples:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

JUST IN: Hegseth warns Iran if they don’t chose wisely, they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy

He also adds that U.S. will commence “Operation Economic Fury to maximize economic pressure across the entirety of the government.”

Wall Street Memes @wallstmemes

Apr 15

When you close the Strait then open it again

Aaron Rupar @atrupar

Apr 15

BARTIROMO: Moving to domestic issues, what are your top priorities now for the economy for the rest of the year?

TRUMP: To be honest, we are doing so well. You look at this. I hit the 50,000 Dow mark!

PP:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

17h

Ecunumy gud. Stuck murket up. Anericu suxxesful.

Utter clownshow. Avoid at all cost. This whole thing is a mess and only losers are buying it at this stage.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

20h

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially hits a new record high, now up +11% since the March 30th low.

That’s +$6 TRILLION in market cap in 12 trading days.

Don Johnson @DonMiami3

11h

Fertilizer going vertical.

Maybe it matters, or we’ll just eat digital food. No inflation though.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

4h

Fertiliser prices soaring everywhere. Not clear which places are going to be hit with shortages but significant food inflation will hit everywhere just as hard, including the US.

The Spectator Index @spectatorindex

5h

Aluminium prices have hit a four-year high as Middle East deliveries continue to be disrupted.

Australia is being hit hard by diesel shortages. While consumers focus on the price of gasoline, diesel costs are rising higher on a percentage basis, fueling price inflation on everything in the world that is transported using diesel fuel.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

2h

BREAKING: Australia faces energy collapse, government may call for work from home

Australia is on the brink of entering the next stage of the government’s emergency fuel plan, an expert has warned, which could include widespread calls for Australians to work from home — Sky News

MINING.COM @mining

6h

The global sulphur squeeze has transitioned from a theoretical risk to a direct catalyst for a production cliff.

From Indonesian nickel to DRC copper, the leaching chemicals that power the green transition are hitting a wall.

Reuters reports that Indonesia’s nickel heavyweights— including Huayou Cobalt, Lygend, and Tsingshan —have already been forced to trim output by 10%.

Meanwhile, spot sulphur prices delivered to Indonesia have exploded above $800/t, with distressed cargoes clearing as high as $1,000/t.

…

So, with all this swell stuff going on, Trump is pivoting towards trying to muscle China. This is Trump’s rational side—recognizing the box he’s in—interacting with his character flawed side—lashing out irrationally rather than trying to back out:

Q. Anthony Ali Q. Anthony Ali

6h

Just a reminder that the last time Scott Bessent tried to make a financial play against the Chinese on behalf of Soros, Quantum Fund took a $2 billion loss

Megatron @Megatron_ron

JUST IN: Scott Bessent is once again threatening Chinese banks over Iran:

“Two Chinese banks received letters from the U.S. Treasury... If we can prove that there is Iranian money flowing through your accounts then we are willing to put on secondary sanctions.”

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

15h

Meh.

COVID closed off Chinese trade routes too.

Anyone remember how that worked out for the US (or Joe Biden in the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential elections)?

Erick Erickson

@EWErickson

·

19h

A case in point on media bias: Every Chinese trade route to the West is now controlled by the United States thanks to Donald Trump, and I bet this is the first you’re hearing of it.