How Do You Solve A Problem Like Zhou?

Let me count the ways. I count four ways the problem of Zhou could be resolved—in no particular order: Death in office, Resignation, Impeachment, Removal (25th). I suppose neglect—assuming failure to die in office—is another possibility. That would lead to an interesting Election 2024. But that’s also the point. Liberals are getting very—and I mean VERY—antsy about this problem. The debate seems to boil down to a binary choice: Remove Zhou before 2024 or wait till 2024. If you plump for the first option, you get another binary choice: Remove him before Election 2022 (November) or after Election. All of this, of course, assumes Dems playing a leading role in all this—which is actually a somewhat dicey assumption.

Right now the leading Liberal voices—such as the NYT and the WaPo—seem to be framing the Zhou problem in terms of whether Zhou should run again in 2024. That’s an eventuality that virtually no one, not even Dems, favors. However, given the increasing ferocity of criticism of Zhou at Dem organs, one suspects that this discussion is a subterfuge building to the real choice: Not waiting for 2024, but instead either strong arming Zhou into resigning or, failing that, doing a 25th on him—a first for the US. Either way, what we’re looking at is sooner rather than later.

While the most high profile discussion of the Zhou problem among Dems continues the pretense of focusing on 2024, there are increasing signs that “sooner rather than later” is in play. But there are major problems with that scenario.

The first step taken in either scenario (resignation or removal) involves pushing Zhou out and Kama Sutra in. Out of the frying pan, into the fire, so to speak. One might well ask, How does that solve the problem? It doesn’t, but Steve Hayward argues today that Dems are either desperate or delusional enough to grasp at this straw (Will Dems Dump Biden *Before* November?). However …

Once Kama Sutra takes the Oath, she ceases to be President of the Senate, and that changes everything. In that event the Senate becomes a true 50/50 body—kind of. I say “kind of” because right now there are no less than three Dem senators who are hors de combat for various reasons, such as Covid. Given the geriatric makeup of the Senate, this scenario becomes a roll of the dice. However, assuming a full complement, a 50/50 Senate raises major problems, because Republican cooperation (collusion?) becomes a necessity.

While the Vice Presidency is a constitutional office, there is no requirement that a new Vice President be confirmed in the situation we’re discussing. In effect, a 50/50 Senate gives the Republicans a veto over candidates for the Vice Presidency, because the Vice President must be confirmed by a majority vote:

Section 2.

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

The votes are there in the House—barely—but very possibly not in a 50/50 Senate.

Worse, for Dems, the Senate Republicans could even delay a confirmation vote until the start of a new Congress—at which point it’s likely that GOPers will control both chambers. At which point the Republicans could tell Kama Sutra to stuff her nominee and come up with someone who suits Republicans. And it could get even worse for Dems. If no Vice President is in place and something should happen to Kama Sutra—impeached, removed for her giggle or general incoherence—then a Republican Speaker would become President. By the way, the Speaker of the House doesn’t necessarily have to be an elected Representative. A Republican House could—depending on circumstances—select a Speaker with the succession issue in mind: Donald Trump? Ron DeSantis? Glenn Youngkin? With those dynamics in play, the GOP has an incredible amount of political leverage and a powerful incentive to close ranks.

From this standpoint, resignation or removal of Zhou begins to look like a possible worst case—even a nightmare—scenario for the Dems. For starters, they’d need to be betting on the outcome of Election 2022—the Midterms. Everything would ride on that, and that looks like a loser. And remember, no matter what you may think of Turtle McConnell, he’s the guy who stiffed Obama on Merrick Garland for a full year. Stiffing Chuck Schumer—currently sidelined with Covid—for a few months would be child’s play for Mitch. In the circumstances—a new GOP controlled Congress in the offing—a Republican claim to a voice in choosing a Vice President would be totally reasonable to most Americans who had just rejected the Dem agenda.

This problem of Zhou may be a problem without any good solution. At least, not for Dems.