How Do You Figure Trump?

I almost called this post, How do you solve a problem like The Donald. Just when you’re almost despairing—like when he says the world is lining up to kiss his ass—he pulls something off that, well, at least keeps you hanging on. It’s not all roses, of course—he’s still funding genocide in Palestine and elsewhere, etc. But maybe there’s hope.

Here’s why I say that, and I’ll start with a h/t to American Cardigan. Yesterday AC commented that, at the joint press conference, Netanyahu looked like he’d just got a spanking from Trump. So …

Just now listening to Judge Nap talking to Gilbert Doctorow, and heard this exchange (9:30). The exchange follows Doctorow explaining that Russia played the key role in getting talks between Trump and Iran started:

Prof. Gilbert Doctorow : Did the Kremlin Underestimate Trump?

Judge: How do we know that the Russians played this careful and delicate role of putting the Americans and the Iranians together, and I wonder how Bibi Netanyahu reacted to that? I know you read The Economist, as I do. The Economist had a great piece out last night--I don't know how they know this, unless somebody was in the room reporting--that Netanyahu's trip to the United States on Monday was a dismal failure, from his perspective. He thought he was going to talk Trump into saying something antagonistic about President Erdogan of Turkey, and Trump said: "Oh no, he's my friend." He thought he could talk Trump into preparing for war against Iran, and Trump says: "Oh no, we're going to negotiate." And Bibi said, "Negotiate with whom?" And Trump said: "Directly with them."

Doctorow: Well, what you're calling up is precisely what I heard on the BBC, of all people, yesterday morning. So The Economist may be a little bit, you know, exceptional. The BBC is the British government speaking, and they said exactly what you said--that there was shock on the face of Netanyahu and that his visit was a loss.

Judge: So this is a side of Trump which libertarians and small government people and pro peace people cheer on--that he could say to somebody like Netanyahu, whose slaughter in Gaza he's financing: "No, no, no--hold off, Bibi! We're going to try and talk."

I hafta take this as a sign that, for all the outrageous rhetoric, Trump is paying close attention to geopolitical realities. I mean, Russia being an intermediary is all fine and good, but all those realities—economic and military—tell strongly against a US war on Iran. Doctorow puts our dilemma well:

There's a lot going on, judge, that we are not privy to and we have no right to be privy to, and that contradicts what we read in the papers or hear from our colleagues every day. There is something going on—as we just learned with respect to the revival of talks between Iran and and the United States. There are things going on behind our backs and, as I said, we have no right to that information, but it puts us in an embarrassing situation since we are making our judgments with only partial information.

All we can do is continue making our best estimates.