Holy Thursday News Roundup 4/17/25

We have a mixtum gatherum this morning.

I’m making no statements about economics or monetary theory or investing. Just noting what’s going on, with the caveat that continued turmoil is in the cards. So, when Jerome Powell says he’s not going to lower interest rates, I’m not judging his policy, just noting his rationale, which is widely accepted—whether correct or not—that the tariffs could lead to “inflation”. Whatever that is. Higher prices, I think, is what he means. Obviously, Wall Street wants lower rates. That’s what we’ve had for years, while the savings of little people get eaten away by inflation. Trump wants Powell gone

BREAKING: Trump has said: "Jerome Powell is always too late and wrong. His termination “cannot come fast enough. The Fed should’ve cut interest rates long ago."

so someone else will lower rates. We’ll just have to see, but in the meantime there’s no end to the trade wars. Or the kinetic wars, for that matter.

This is what Powell is looking at:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Inflation is about to rip. If this data survives backtests this is tradeable.

Quote

10xLogisticsExperts @Logisticsexpert14h

Trade coming to a halt right in front of your eyes.

2:45 AM · Apr 17, 2025

Now, everyone has their own explanation, but this was the Wall Street reaction—yesterday—to Powell’s statement:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

The US stock market is sinking again today and more than $1.5 trillion was erased

3:51 PM · Apr 16, 2025

Presumably Trump’s friend, Charles Schwab, is making more billions off the market churn. It doesn’t affect me, but other people would do rely on investments for their retirements are bound to be unhappy.

How is China fighting back against the Bessent plan to set up a global anti-China trading bloc?

JUST IN: China is importing record amounts of Canadian oil after cutting US purchases by 90% amid trade war.

Moreover, recall what I wrote recently about China being right near the top of oil refining countries?

dana @dana916 

China’s Oil Imports Hit Record High in March

In March, China increased its oil imports to a record 12 million barrels per day (bpd). According to China’s General Administration of Customs, a total of 51.5 million tons of oil were imported last month. This surge was driven by the recovery of supplies from Iran and Russia, compensating for reduced imports from other countries.

Looking ahead, analysts at Vortex predict that China will maintain high levels of oil purchases, with a significant portion destined for independent refineries.

Chinese companies have now started selling the products they used to make for Louis Vuitton, Prada, etc. at "normal prices" like a $20 bag instead of $2000. They are making a big fuss about it and making fun of it.

Meanwhile, China’s Xi is on a charm tour throughout much of SE Asia—Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.—preaching solidarity against unilateral tariffs, signing all sorts of trade deals.

Many of these SE Asian countries export vast amounts of product to the US. Why, then, does China think they can gain traction with these and other countries? The answer may lie in the openly expressed views of Trump’s closest trade advisers. They want to tie trade policy into national security policy, keep the USD as the world reserve currency, and maintain the US as the single dominant hegemonic superpower—MAGA, ya’ll! IOW, the Trump Tariffs represent a way to strongarm the rest of the world into paying down the unsustainable US debt—and, maybe, reshore industries that are vital to the military. It’s a continuation of Neocolonialism. Presumably, Trump is telling the prospective suckers that the US will be more fiscally responsible in the future—meaning, until he leaves office? If Congress cooperates? You can bet that they’re being educated on American reliability and pure intentions by China. In the meantime, what does MAGA really mean for the rest of us? Brian Berletic describes Trump’s MAGA plans here:

Worst Case Scenario: Trump’s Tariffs Walling US Off Ahead of Wider World Conflict

In the long run, wars make us safer and richer

“Us,” as in US. Not so much the subject nations. The target nations may be on to this. That second article was written by a professor at Stanford’s “Humanities” Center. Some humanity! The bottom line? Yes, the US has a lot of leverage still but, No, this doesn’t look like a quick win.

So, then, why is this BRICS man smiling? Maybe he sees a chance to become what could amount to the sole pharmaceutical supplier to the US, at China’s expense. The Indian strategy of beggar thy neighbor isn’t a new one, but doesn’t win friends:

Megatron

@Megatron_ron

NEW: India is now offering American companies that want to leave China the opportunity to move production to its territory - The Economic Times, Indian outlet.

Last edited3:05 AM · Apr 17, 2025

On the Trump Wars front, the attacks on Yemen continue, with a new emphasis on use of B-2s flying from Diego Garcia. An Iranian take:

Patarames @Pataramesh

Trump is using B-2 with GBU-57 to demonstrate their rock penetration capacity to Iran

There is a theory that several such strikes at the same point could bore a hole so deep that a nuclear warhead could detonate at significant depths of 20-30m

I'm not familiar with the rock damage modes, but if its a cleared hole, the energy of the nuclear blast would not mainly deflect away

 But cause much higher destructive force to the mountain tunnel complex

Of course, until B-2's would reach the Fordow site intact, Iranian ballistic missiles would have set the whole region on fire...

Yeah, reaching Fordow intact could be the really tricky part. Which may explain the NYT article on Israel’s “You first” plan to attack Iran:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:  Trump officially rejects Israel’s plan to strike Iran nuclear sites. -NYT

Apparently Israel has drawn up a plan in which the US military is supposed to do the main work. This has divided the Trump cabinet, because it puts American soldiers in the Middle East at great risk.

It appears that Trump is coming up against the limits of US military force projection capabilities—short of sub launched nukes. If the previously attempted Israeli attacks had been a success, Trump wouldn’t be telling them, ‘You first!’ Fortunately, Tulsi Gabbard is helping to educate Trump on all this. Even Hegseth—probably having received some cold hard truths from his generals—is said to be getting cold feet. Russia will win in Ukraine, the Middle East war looks like a big loser, the trade war remains dicey. The Trump regime is now deeply divided on these wars, but Trump has pushed things so far with his threats that backing out will inevitably look like an epic climbdown. At least Trump made the right decision regarding Netanyahu’s attempt to sucker him into attacking Iran, but what message does this send Iran—and every other major power—about Trump’s propensity to talk his way into boxes with threats he can’t really back up?

This reminds me of an anecdote Doug Macgregor recounted just the other day in which he described a call he got from “Mar-a-Lago” (i.e., from Trump). According to Macgregor, Trump revealed a disconcerting gullibility (the topic was Ukraine and Russia) in believing the military types that he surrounds himself with. Very unsettling. And trying to threaten the world into a “peace” that translates to greater subservience isn’t getting the quick response Trump hoped for—a bad sign that his game is not gaining much traction.

The Houthis remain defiant, by the way, and they make some strong points in their latest press missive. The US is using up munitions and other resources at an alarming rate, in a hugely expensive operation. The Houthis are absolutely correct that deploying a second carrier to the region is a sign of failure, not strength. Moreover, the concentration of so much of our resources in this one region is not the preferred mode for maintaining global hegemony. Nor is the resort to B-2s—fabulously expensive to fly and maintain—a sign of strength:

Yemen Military @Yemenimilitary

The total number of our operations during this month reached 78, carried out with 171 ballistic, cruise, hypersonic missiles, and drones.

We carried out 33 operations against the aircraft carrier and its accompanying naval vessels with 122 ballistic, cruise missiles, and drones.

As a result of our operations, the role of the aircraft carrier in the Red Sea was almost completely neutralized, prompting the enemy to bring in another aircraft carrier.

One of the outcomes of our operations against the aircraft carrier Truman was the American enemy resorting to the use of stealth aircraft.

The American reliance on a base in the Indian Ocean, about 4,000 km away, is due to the failure and low effectiveness of its operations.

What the aircraft carrier Truman is doing has become primarily a defensive operation, barely able to defend itself against our operations.

Our operations against the aircraft carrier Truman have placed it in a defensive posture without being able to secure Israeli navigation.

The deployment of another aircraft carrier is a failure that confirms Truman did not have an effective role in achieving American objectives.

The Yemeni position is active, influential, and strong, which is why the American enemy resorted to bringing in more of its resources and capabilities.

We carried out 4 operations launching Quds missiles at reconnaissance, refueling, and American warplanes in the Red Sea.

We conducted more than 11 interception and engagement operations against American enemy aircraft, including stealth aircraft, and several operations were thwarted.

There were successful interception operations that caused the Americans to fail in carrying out several missions and in bombing multiple targets in our country.

We carried out 26 operations toward the occupied Palestinian territories with a total of 30 ballistic, hypersonic missiles, and drones.

The scale and momentum of our operations confirm that, by God's grace, our capabilities remain intact, very strong, and unaffected by the American aggression.

Trump’s voting base probably retains its strength for now based on the take down of DEI programs as well as the anti-illegal aliens efforts. However, if the geopolitical thrashing about doesn’t get some wins much sooner than now appears likely, Trump’s leverage over Congress will wane. Big plans, big hurry—it may not be the smartest strategy.