Good News, Bad News On The Trump Diplomacy Front

Let’s start with the good news. During the campaign Trump gave the impression that, in very short order—24 hours?—he would go mano a mano with Vlad “The Impaler?” Putin and strike a deal that would perhaps be the greatest deal in history, or something like that. The idea would be that Trump would knock heads and force Ukraine and Russia to make peace—never mind that the US is the true party at war with Russia.

The other day we quoted Doug Macgregor to the effect—well, virtually word for word—that this was a Very Bad Idea, and that such negotiations should be carefully prepared by senior people below the level of POTUS. In a reassuring move for those hopeful for and end to this horrendous war,

Trump Expected To Appoint Ukraine Peace Envoy 'Soon': Fox

President-elect Donald Trump has long promised to immediately negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war upon entering office. Fox News is reporting Wednesday that toward this end he may "soon" appoint a Ukrainian peace envoy to head this up.

This looks very much like the approach Macgregor maintains is necessary. It’s very good that Trump recognizes this, previous Trumpian rhetoric having been, well, just that.

Even better news, we’re led to believe that this special envoy won’t be one of Trump’s Jewish billionaire golfing buddies:

"You're going to see a very senior special envoy, someone with a lot of credibility, who will be given a task to find a resolution, to get to a peace settlement," one of several sources told Fox. The person previewed that the appointment will happen "in short order."

In other words, this special envoy would not be like Witkoff, the Middle East “special envoy”—or should we say “chosen envoy”?—who openly stated yesterday that “of course” Israeli annexation of the West Bank and other Palestinian land was on the table for peace in the Middle East. It looks like Witkoff is already vying to unseat Blinken from his title as “Netanyahu’s lawyer.” I can just imagine Russian eyes rolling at this.

Russia? This envoy will be different!

The bad news, of course, is that Russia totally sees through this:

Lavrov:

“Trump's arrival will not fundamentally change the U.S. attitude toward the situation in Ukraine; Washington wants to keep everything under its control”

“Proposals to freeze the conflict in Ukraine along the line of contact are essentially the same as the Minsk agreements in new packaging; worse, actually”

The Russians have made it clear—repeatedly—that they will settle for nothing less than a new security architecture for Europe. They stated that in their draft treaties back in the December before the war began—and we laughed at them. Now that they’ve clearly defeated the US in the proxy war phase, the Russians are the ones who will set the terms for any talks with the US. The appointment of a special envoy is a clear sign of just how strong the Russian position now is. The US has tried to maintain that its war on Russia is actually just a war between Russia and Ukraine—”Russian aggression.” The Russians have maintained all along that the only way forward to a lasting peace is for the US to come out from behind the curtain and negotiate with Russia. That’s what’s now happening. Because the US is increasingly desperate to end its insane war on Russia.

The problem? Russia isn’t in such a hurry. There are many reasons why Russia would want to prolong the war—geopolitical reasons that include not only Europe but the Middle East and the Far East, as well. This is a global war of attrition, and the Russians know that. So do their Chinese and Iranian partners in security arrangements. I would expect the Russians to set some very tough terms before even agreeing to meet with a special envoy from the US. At a minimum, they would probably want an acknowledgement that any talks would be about ending US aggression against Russia. The Russians are very big on legality—remember, Putin has a degree in international law—and I would expect them to be very insistent on this point. But they would probably up the ante from there. Unilateral end to sanctions? Why not? Withdrawal of US/NATO forces and weapons from Ukraine? Why not? Pullback from countries bordering the old USSR?

The Russians won’t be in a hurry. They will want to maintain full court pressure on Trump while building up their position in the Middle East even further. Major NATO member Turkey breaking off diplomatic ties to Israel had to come as a shock to even a dunce like Little Marco, yesterday, but the Russians have been working for this for years. Today? Erdogan Hails Russia & China For Backing Arms Embargo On Israel. The ground is shifting under the feet of the Anglo-Zionists, so why would Russia be in a hurry to reach out a hand?

Trump appears to be attempting to deploy a Good Cop - Bad Cop diplomatic strategy. The Good Cop part is on display with this special envoy ploy toward Russia—the problem being that the Russians are unimpressed with the envoy’s stinkin’ badge. Meanwhile the Bad Cop ploy is being displayed toward the Middle East. The problem there is twofold: first, most of those countries (including NATO’s Turkey) see a BRICS membership in their future, despite Trump’s threats to sanction countries that seek alternative payment mechanisms (alternative to the USD); second, Russia is backing Iran militarily. Just how big a stick does the Bad Cop really have. For some comic relief in this regard, here’s what a Dutchman said yesterday—only it may reflect Neocon thinking as well:

"I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out," he stated.

Admiral Bauer was discussing the difference between the Ukraine conflict and other NATO wars such as the Afghanistan occupation. He stated the main difference between Moscow and Kabul is Russia’s nuclear stockpile.

In Afghanistan, American and NATO forces quickly forced the Taliban from Kabul in 2001. Then, the Western alliance engaged in a two-decade nation-building project while the Taliban fought using insurgent tactics.

Right. The only difference.

Meanwhile, Trump will be juggling a few other problems—and probably receiving no help at all from Congress:

US Deficit Explodes: Blowout October Deficit Means 2nd Worst Start To US Fiscal Year On Record

It is only fitting that the twilight days of the Biden admin would exhibit more of the same fakeness that defined not only all of the past four years, but certainly the fakeness of that Kamala Harris presidential campaign which had a billion dollars a month ago and ended up in failure, broke and in debt. We are talking, of course, about the relentless debt-funded spree that somehow became synonymous with economic success in the US.

According to the latest Treasury data released today, in October - the first month of fiscal 2025 - the US spent a massive $584.2 billion, a 24.3% increase from the prior year, and a record government outlay for the month of October. On a trailing 6 month moving average basis, to smooth out outliers months, the spending hit $586 billion, effectively at an all time high with just the record spending spree during covid pushing government spending higher.

Key drivers of the deficit widening included outlays in the Departments of Health and Human Services and of Defense, up 12% and 13% respectively, adjusted for calendar differences. Health spending alone jumped by $62 billion compared with the same month last year.

At the same time, the US government collected just $326.8 billion in taxes, down a massive 19% from the $403.434 billion last October, and down even more from the $527 billion in tax receipts in September '24. As shown in the next chart, while spending continued to grow exponentially, tax receipts have flatlined, and the 6 month average in October was just $380 billion, the same as three years ago!

Have you noticed that we haven’t seen a SecTreasury nominee yet? What a thankless job that’ll be!

It’s increasingly evident to the rest of the world that the days of the US as global cop—good or bad—are probably numbered. Not just some future possibility in a misty, undefined future. Unfortunately, it appears to me that Trump is looking for some quick PR type successes or fixes. I understand why he would want that—to bolster his domestic reform agenda. But none of the people he’ll be talking to will have any reason to help him. Maybe it’s time to level with the American people, and many of those early appointments are not a help in that regard.