It’s a busy day and I don’t multitask well, so this may seem a bit disjointed. Let’s start with a brief tweet from a reliable source that says something about US preparedness for war with other than 3rd World militaries. Obviously this affects the USN, but take it also as possibly symptomatic of wider problems:
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) @mercoglianos
Multiple reports coming in that USNS Big Horn ran aground off Oman. This means that the sole oiler in the 5th Fleet will be out of service.
This highlights the issues with the delayed introduction of the Lewis class oilers and the retirement of the Kaiser class.
10:16 PM · Sep 23, 2024
Next, Russia. Mikael Valtersson has a long tweet up today on what to expect going forward in Ukraine, but I’ll excerpt it to provide the big picture of what’s going on.
The RuAF continues with advances both on the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove and Ugledar (Vuhledar) fronts, creating cauldrons for the UkrAF. This forces the Ukrainians to choose between imminent retreat or risk of encirclement. The present Nevelske- and Ugledar cauldrons are but the first ones this autumn.
[Lengthy review of the cauldrons to expect during Fall and Winter]
These two last stages will probably continue into 2025, but will probably be finished during the winter. If UkrAF decides not to withdraw the fighting might drag out and be much bloodier, but if Ukrainian battle fatigue continues spreading the remaining encircled troops might give up much faster than earlier during the war.
It seems very clear that the Russian operational tactic is to avoid frontal assaults as much as possible and take ground by partially encircling the Ukrainians and forcing them to withdraw. RuAF also utilises a common weakness in Ukrainian fortifications, namely the thinness of the Ukrainian defence lines. This makes it possible to crack the Ukrainian defences at especially weak points and attack the remaining defence line from behind.
The lower quality and motivation of many of the newer Ukrainian units also makes it easier to advance at a higher speed than earlier for RuAF. This might become even more evident if UkrAF goes from setback to setback during the autumn and winter.
6:09 AM · Sep 24, 2024
Shifting to Israel’s massacre being of Lebanese, this tweet should set the tone of expectations—from a long time war correspondent:
Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai
Those who lived through the 2006 war and have some knowledge of #Hezbollah's modus operandi understand that the real retaliation hasn't come yet. Be patient for a few days, absorb the blow, let Israel feel its superiority and then wage war in a different style.
More to come...
3:20 AM · Sep 24, 2024
On the Israeli side, the playbook never changes—entire nations are responsible and therefore entire nations of untermenschen are subject to annhilation:
A new fake cartoon to recycle the genocidal logic the Israeli president spun out on Gaza last October for Lebanon almost a year later Lie and slaughter, rinse and repeat
Quote
יצחק הרצוג Isaac Herzog @Isaac_Herzog
I repeat and reiterate: Israel does not seek war. But we have the right and the duty to defend our people.
Now a series of recommended reads. Turning from the reference to Israel feeling its superiority, Larry Johnson has a very worthwhile post today. He presents a communication from a Jewish friend which LJ considers typical of Jewish Americans—I agree. The communication presents the typical narrative of the inevitable victory of the superiorJewish uebermenschen over the Gentile untermenschen—this is the sad product of Israel’s early victories, ignoring what should have been the tough lessons of the past 50 years. In the current case the Gentile untermenschen are Arabs, whether Muslim or Christian. In other contexts it could be Russians or Slavs in general.
is already effectively destroying thousands of Hezbollah missiles and drones on the ground and they have just begun. When they knocked out the comms and made everyone afraid of devices and then they killed most of the top commanders, Hezbollah was left confused and in many ways ineffective. Nobody has the airpower to stop Israel, and the underground bunkers, as in Gaza, have been shown to be able to be bombed effectively and precisely. I am betting Israel has more surprises ready to go and more top Hezbollah commanders about to be killed.
A glorious victory is inevitable, in other words, and then Israel will move on to Iran:
Israel hopes Iran comes in so they have an excuse to take out the nuke facilities and the oil fields and possibly can foment an uprising while Israel blows up the IRG.
It’s all typical delusional narrative construction around the core idea of superiority, which LJ goes on to critique. But this is also typical of the delusional Neocon narrative about how they would crush and dismember Russia and quickly turn the Russian people against Putin. In each instance, it’s the same people using America to advance their own cause, convinced of their inherent superiority.
Contrast that with MoA, who has a very worthwhile post up today:
It’s a good review of where we’re coming from and where we’re headed. Moon ends by maintaining that the Shiites, with their ideology of necessary suffering, are not going to be crushed, despite”
Official Israeli claim that nearly every building in southern Lebanon conceals several missiles pre-excuses massive destruction of civilian infrastructure, attempts to sow division between Hizbullah and popular base.
Note the facile notion that bombing civilians will lead to the demise of Hezbollah. Easy peasy. Just like in Russia. Just like in Gaza.
This was a terrorist attack which shows, by the way, also because one should have a pretty high confidence that the CIA was either directly involved or knew all about it. This was not only against international law--very explicit international law on booby trapped devices—it's absolutely a terrorist attack. But it shows how our supply chains absolutely are becoming suborned by Western intelligence agencies Israel does it the United States does it. We point our finger at China, but we're the ones doing these abuses.
Alastair Crooke also had a lengthy and worthwhile article yesterday:
Both Hezbollah and Iran have stated that the war has shifted to a new level. However, I’ll excerpt briefly from near the end:
Unsurprisingly, the chatter in Israel is that the pager operation has resulted in a major blow to Hizbullah’s communication system that will cripple the movement’s military capability, offering Israel the ‘window’ to press home an invasion to establish a ‘buffer zone’ in southern Lebanon – one that might facilitate the return of Israeli residents to the north. Nasrallah promises the opposite: More Israelis will be displaced from their homes in northern Israel.
The notion that Hizbullah’s communications are crippled is wishful thinking that fails to distinguish between what may be called civil-society Hizbullah, and its military arm.
This, of course, is also true of Hamas. But these are distinctions that Israel and its supporters steadfastly refuse to acknowledge, preferring the path of unlimited warfare against entire societies. Hamas is Amalek. Anyone judged to oppose Zionist ideology is Amalek. Demonstrators on US campuses are also Amalek. It starts with the new censorship. Where does it end?
Hizbullah is a civil movement, as well as a military power. It is the Authority over a significant slice of Beirut and a country – a responsibility that requires the Movement to provide civil order and security. The pagers and radios were used primarily by its civil security forces (effectively a civil police managing security and order in Hizbullah-controlled parts of Lebanon), as well as used by its logistics and support branches. Since these personnel are not combat forces, they were not seen to require truly secure communications.
Even before the 2006 war, Hizbullah ended all cellphone and landline communications in favour of their own dedicated optic cable system and hand-courier messaging for the military cadres. In short, Hizbullah’s communications at the civil level took a major hit, but this will not unduly impact upon its military forces. For years, the Movement has operated on the basis that units could continue with combat, even in the event of a complete rupture of optic communications, or the loss of a HQ.
What comes next? Several scenarios are possible: The key is that Netanyahu is now back in “his comfort zone”. The talk about hostages has subsided, and the plans for the stealth, calibrated expulsion of the Palestinian population are unfolding under the supervision of ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich and others on the Right. Defence Minister Gallant has even declared military ‘victory’ in Gaza.
...
From Netanyahu’s perspective, the U.S. – however grudgingly – is committed to supporting Israel in this war, and in a wider war, should Iran enter the fray. The U.S. hints its support is not open-ended, but Netanyahu probably counts on its engagement inexorably ratchetting up as events unfold, pulling the U.S. further in. (The Israel-supporting power-structures would never countenance any abandonment of an Israel in danger, in any case).
Finally, on a much broader topic, but focusing on the American constitutional order, here’s a link to Michael Vlahos speaking on
It’s actually only a half hour long. The key is getting past the first 4-5 minutes of John Batchelor. Vlahos’ idea is that, as with ancient Rome and ancient Athens, America is on what he considers the inevitable path from democracy through oligarchy to autocracy. “Democracy” in America, says Vlahos, is something of a shibboleth—it currently serves the interests of the oligarchy. Everybody talks about “our democracy,” but not many consider what the reality really is. Vlahos offers a lot of interesting observations, although like any big picture narrative his scenario may not be as inevitable as he maintains. Behind it all is the human condition—no human scheme of order works forever. They all fall prey to human self interest and short sightedness—and worse. You may prefer harsher terms. However, in the context of the current election Vlahos’ view is worth considering.
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Sachs says "[blowing up pagers] shows how our supply chains absolutely are becoming suborned by Western intelligence agencies; Israel does it, the United States does it. We point our finger at China, but we're the ones doing these abuses."
The other day in the WSJ there was an op-ed by Michael Gallagher, the "head of defense for Palantir Technologies", calling for all hands on deck to rebuild the "free-world technology stack", over and against our totalitarian rivals like China, who apparently tricked us into sending our manufacturing overseas and handing over a lot of our IP.
It's a day late and a fiat dollar short, but we've learned our lesson after the Hezbollah pagers blew up.
Gallagher says "America and our allies have the tools to build a shared software-defined manufacturing ecosystem backed by a free-world technology stack. This is the cornerstone of a safer and more prosperous U.S.-led coalition, one that geopolitical swing states will want to join. If we fail, China’s totalitarian technology stack will flourish, ushering in a more fractured and hostile world."
Thankfully, the only liberal democracy in the Middle East with robust LGBTQ protections and carefully monitored elections and secure national borders, is anxious to help the rest of the free world rebuild our technology stack. They recently began sending guys from their Unit 8200 to Silicon Valley to help us develop our cybersecurity; all the best venture capitalists are tapping into this elite human capital. Hopefully, they will also help finance the rebuilding of our stack after somebody blew it up.
Sachs says "[blowing up pagers] shows how our supply chains absolutely are becoming suborned by Western intelligence agencies; Israel does it, the United States does it. We point our finger at China, but we're the ones doing these abuses."
The other day in the WSJ there was an op-ed by Michael Gallagher, the "head of defense for Palantir Technologies", calling for all hands on deck to rebuild the "free-world technology stack", over and against our totalitarian rivals like China, who apparently tricked us into sending our manufacturing overseas and handing over a lot of our IP.
It's a day late and a fiat dollar short, but we've learned our lesson after the Hezbollah pagers blew up.
Gallagher says "America and our allies have the tools to build a shared software-defined manufacturing ecosystem backed by a free-world technology stack. This is the cornerstone of a safer and more prosperous U.S.-led coalition, one that geopolitical swing states will want to join. If we fail, China’s totalitarian technology stack will flourish, ushering in a more fractured and hostile world."
Thankfully, the only liberal democracy in the Middle East with robust LGBTQ protections and carefully monitored elections and secure national borders, is anxious to help the rest of the free world rebuild our technology stack. They recently began sending guys from their Unit 8200 to Silicon Valley to help us develop our cybersecurity; all the best venture capitalists are tapping into this elite human capital. Hopefully, they will also help finance the rebuilding of our stack after somebody blew it up.
My only question is “Was the captain (pilot/driver) of the Big Horn navy oiler which ran aground a DEI hire black woman like Kenji Brown Jackson?” 🤪