Germany Holds Election. Next Trick? Forming A Government

Feb 23, 2025

It appears the German elections are playing out as predicted, with the CDU/CSU getting 29% and the AfD currently at about 19.5%. The rest of the pack is well back:

Germany’s Merz claims victory for his conservatives as the far right is projected to finish 2nd

Weird, innit? Claiming victory with 29% of the vote while maintaining that you won’t do a coalition?

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservatives were on course for a lackluster victory in a national election Sunday, while Alternative for Germany nearly doubled its support, the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II, projections showed.
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The projections, based on exit polls and partial counting, put support for Merz’s Union bloc at just under 29% and Alternative for Germany, or AfD, about 20% — roughly double its result from 2021.
They put support for Scholz’s Social Democrats at just over 16%, far lower than in the last election. The environmentalist Greens, their remaining partners in the outgoing government, were on 12-13%.
Out of three smaller parties, one — the hard-left Left Party — appeared certain to win seats in parliament with up to 9% of the vote. Two other parties, the pro-business Free Democrats and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, hovered around the threshold of the 5% support needed to win seats.
Whether Merz will need one or two partners to form a coalition will depend on how many parties get into parliament.
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AfD’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, said that “we have become the second-strongest force.”
She said that her party is “open for coalition negotiations” with Merz’s party, and that “otherwise, no change of policy is possible in Germany.” But Merz has repeatedly and categorically ruled out working with AfD, as have other mainstream parties.

Prediction: It will be difficult for any German government to claim to lead if it excludes the AfD—which has this platform:

Strong opposition to illegal immigration and asylum policies.
Emphasis on preserving German cultural identity.
Reforming or leaving the EU altogether ("Dexit" has been debated within the party).
Opposition to green energy policies, favoring traditional energy sources like coal and nuclear power.

This is especially the case at this period of crisis in Europe, when the CDU was forced vote with AfD on an immigration measure—clearly worried about losing its base, which is no longer seeing eye to eye with the party elite. Ruling class still in denial.