Gaza: Status Unclear
Many readers will have seen the news this morning that Israel is withdrawing virtually all—not all, but most—of its forces from Gaza. The withdrawal from the Khan Younis area in southern Gaza is said to be total, but a corridor of occupation is being maintained that effectively splits Gaza. That much appeared confirmed as of this morning.
Additionally, hundreds of aid trucks have apparently entered Gaza—presumably from Egypt. The aid had been blocked by Zionist fanatics, with the support of Israeli armed forces. This appears to be confirmed.
Yes, because the genocidal Israeli government was blocking that aid until Biden, with one phone call, got them to (slightly) stop. Which yet again underscores that Biden is equally complicit in every single death in Gaza.
Quote
Barak Ravid @BarakRavid
5h
BREAKING: 322 aid trucks entered Gaza today. It is the highest daily number of aid trucks that entered the enclave since October 7, Israeli officials tell me
Other reports are arising that are more speculative. It appears to be confirmed that the US government and the Iranian government have been in direct communications—or, perhaps, through Oman, which maintains good relations with both the US and Iran. There has been a lot of speculation surrounding that apparent fact. The most prevalent speculative claim is that the US 1) provided a guarantee to Iran that it had had not advance notification of the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and 2) effectively greenlit Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel as long as Iran refrained from striking at US targets.
For my part, I can accept #1, with the proviso that I accept that Israel did notify the US of the embassy attack minutes before it occurred. My assumption is that Israel refused to abort the attack and the US lacked time to take effective counter action to force Israel to abort.
On the other hand, I find #2—a virtual blank check to Iran—to be utterly implausible. Simply put, such a course of action would constitute political suicide for the Zhou regime.
So, what has been going on in these—shall we say—negotiations between Iran and the US? It appears clear, contrary to the Berletic scenario that we outlined yesterday, that the US really does want to avoid being drawn into a regional war in the Middle East. That would be a war that the US has largely conceded that it is woefully unprepared—for purely military reasons, but also and perhaps primarily because of the certain catastrophic economic consequences. Again, such a war would be political suicide for the Zhou regime.
That also means that Netanyahu overplayed his hand—both with the embassy attack as well as the targeted murder of humanitarian aid workers—and that Iran holds a strong hand in negotiations with the US. Pelosi signing on to a letter demanding an immediate end to arms transfers to Israel has undoubtedly further strengthened Iran’s already strong hand, adding enormous pressure on Zhou to come down hard on Netanyahu for his outrageous attempt to draw the US into a war that it desperately doesn’t want and that would be extremely unpopular at home. The huge, and now violent, Israeli anti-Netanyahu demonstrations give the US an added lever to use to pressure Israel.
All this makes certain unconfirmed reports quite tantalizing. First, Mega Geopolitics reports this from Israeli media:
Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics
BREAKING:  Israeli Channel 12, citing sources: We are close to reaching an agreement on the Gaza war
4:31 PM · Apr 7, 2024
That’s a very broad statement, suggesting what amounts to a global settlement. What’s going on here? Megatron makes a remarkable claim, but one derived from sources that, at least in my limited experience, have usually been reliable:
BREAKING:
This explains why today Israel announced a complete withdrawal from Gaza. Iran has reportedly communicated to the United States through the Sultanate of Oman, that the Islamic Republic intends to directly strike Israel, unless the U.S. guarantees an immediate permanent ceasefire in Gaza & no Israeli ground invasion of Rafah – Exclusive sources to Jadeh Iran.
So basically Iran has given the U.S. a choice: You can avoid a direct attack on Israel, by signing a permanent ceasefire in Gaza & an official guarantee of no Rafah operation. @Middle_East_Spectator
True/Not true? I don’t know. However, the Israeli withdrawal that appears to be fact—even though not total—appears to fall within the parameters of Iran’s demands, as outlined above. The renewed flow of humanitarian aid is a direct result, and a bonus that Iran can claim to its credit. The quid pro quo is that the US avoids a regional war—for the time being. Other provisions to such an agreement? Who knows.
If true, this would represent a huge victory for Iranian diplomacy. It would immensely elevate Iranian prestige throughout the region—including with regard to traditional rival Turkey and its feckless president Erdogan—and reinforce Iran’s reputation as a canny power political operator. It would also effectively castrate the psychopathic Netanyahu—a result welcome to much of DC and much of the Israeli public. Less welcome in Israel, it would be a heavy blow against the wacko Zionist/settler movement. The political climate in Israel, already poisonous, could verge on total disarray in the wake of what will be seen as a victory for Hamas. That, however, would not likely be a concern for either the rest of the region or for the West.
It this arrangement is fact, Iran would come out of this not only as a voice for justice and humanity, but as an effective and selfless actor in that regard—having foregone revenge for the higher purpose of justice and humanity for Palestinians. The US brand in the region will be at about the level of whale sh*t, but the Dem party won’t care—they needed this to stop. How effective that will prove remains to be seen. GOPers will, no doubt, rush to shoot themselves in the foot, or maybe in both feet, but the Dem brand has been damaged in key constituencies.
For all these reasons, I find this speculation—or something similar to it—to be plausible.
If this is true, Trump could be a big winner. The Zionists won't want to fund the Dems if they did put the hammer on Netanyahu and Israel, but then Trump will be able to deal from a position of strength--meaning, generalities.
Said this in a previous blog that Iran is taking its guidance and counsel from Russia with regards to how to respond to these issues. It WILL improve Iran's status in the region. Further, this is Israel's reaction to knowing it was going to get retaliated against massively.
I recall an old song "stuck in the middle with you".