If you’ve still been wondering what the conflict in Ukraine is actually all about, Fox News clears that up for you—via “European Leaders”:
European support for Ukrainian recovery may rely on country reforming 'social policies'
Social reforms 'will be critical in Ukraine's post-conflict recovery,' European leaders say
I know that sounds vague, but I also know readers here are sharp enough to figure the euphemistic language out in a flash. Europe marches in lockstep. If you want to be part of Europe you’ll lockstep along with “European leaders”.
A week or so ago Tom Luongo ran a long podcast with Alistair Crooke, a former British diplomat whose two recent articles—fascinating articles—I quoted at some length yesterday (Margin of Victory). The podcast, while very interesting, was quite long and somewhat diffuse, so I went with Crooke’s articles rather than the podcast, the idea being that the articles drew out the main points of the podcast in a succinct form.
Sputnik News picked up on the podcast and contacted Luongo for further comment, the main portions of which are presented at Luongo’s blog: Why Joe Biden Refuses to Back Off Ukraine. If you want the short version of Luongo’s response, which he presented in the podcast, this is it:
The short answer is what I’ve been saying for nearly three years now, The Davos Crowd wants the US destroyed and it is working from within and without our government to achieve that goal. Biden’s staunch support of Ukraine fits that thesis perfectly.
…
It is a deep-seated need by neoconservatives to forestall Russia taking control of Ukraine. This conflict is a war between civilizations. Biden, as a proxy for the oligarchs in Davos, is acting on their behalf to ultimately weaken the U.S. by sending weapons overseas and destroying U.S. leadership and credibility.
This will only end when there is a real political revolution in the U.S.
…
He was put in charge to destroy the U.S. Biden and his administration are vandals. They are not acting in the U.S.’s best interests but have subordinated our public policy to the wishes of foreign powers. Too many conservatives want to align the DNC with China, but it’s clear that while China is helping erode the political cohesiveness of the U.S. it is Davos and their Climate Change/technocracy agenda that is pulling all the strings.
Let me say up front that I don’t entirely agree with this assessment, although I agree with much else that Luongo says. My view is that Davos wants a strong US, but one that is under Davos’ control—to act as Davos’ muscle around the world against recalcitrant civilizations, such as Russia and China. That means tearing down the US civilizational model, including the American constitutional order, in favor of George Soros’ Open Society model. This effort is everywhere apparent in America in the Prog agenda of the Dem party, and the compliance with that agenda among many establishment GOPers. That is particularly clear from the centrality of Climate Control to the Prog agenda as a mechanism for social control. This underlines the importance of the recent SCOTUS terms with its multiple reassertions of federalism, the key to our constitutional order.
However, beyond all that, Luongo and Sputnik discussed some specific matters, and here they are. Luongo sees the Fed, for its own reasons, as pushing back against Davos:
How long can the US economy afford to sponsor Washington’s ambitions?
Not much longer. This is why, at this late date, in my opinion, there is sincere [sic—’severe’?] and seriously organized pushback coming from the most unlikely place, some of the U.S. megabanks and the Federal Reserve, who is aggressively tightening monetary policy to drain the world of dollars and break both the offshore (Euro)dollar markets and put China’s financial partners, namely Hong Kong, under sincere [‘sincere’?] pressure.
If the Fed doesn’t do this now, the odds of a political disintegration of the U.S. by the end of the decade rise dramatically.
Where does this massive funding package come from? Where does the US get the money for this huge amount?
For this year, from money already allocated, but ultimately Congress has to sell debt into the market which either has to be bought domestically, internationally or monetized by the Fed.
The Fed is raising rates to stop the money spigot in D.C. by forcing Congress to act more responsibly. Think of these spending allocations and pledges, like the $600 billion for global infrastructure to thwart China’s Belt and Road Initiative as attempts at blackmailing a reluctant Fed to monetize debt the world no longer wants to buy.
Of course, if the Fed monetizes debt that the rest of the world no longer wants—China, Saudi Arabia, and others as recently discussed, that means that the inflation we’re already experiencing will pale in comparison to the explosion of inflation that we’re likely to experience.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta warned that the US GDP might decrease 1% in second quarter of 2022. This could mean the start of a recession. How high are the chances of a large-scale economic collapse in the wake of this?
There is a large gulf between a recession and ‘large-scale economic collapse.’ The Fed can and should do what its doing to force resolutions on many outstanding geopolitical issues and imbalances. If it’s going to ‘act globally’ this is how is should do so, by taking away the punchbowl of offshore USD-based credit, Eurodollars, and regain control over its own monetary policy.
If that process causes a severe contraction and economic dislocation in the U.S. economy for a year or two that is the price one must pay to balance the books from the previous inflationary boom. I think the worst of those effects on the US economy will be blunted by the complete collapse of the European economy and sovereign debt markets, however. It won’t last forever, two maybe three years, but it will be enough time to effect real political change. We’ll know at this year’s mid-term elections what the American people really think about these things.
Actually, I don’t think “the American people” are even “think[ing] about these things.” Nevertheless, Luongo offers that degree of hope for America’s economic resilience, which I agree with. The European economy is in much worse shape than that of the US—our fundamentals can be restored because our political system (as witness the SCOTUS’ just completed term) still retains sufficient functionality to reform itself to the extent that would restore the economy. Nothing is easy, nothing suggests that it will be pleasant, but it won’t mean “a complete collapse” such as Luongo foresees for Europe.
Moving on, with some quick links.
This story has been out for a few days:
Russia makes massive oil discovery in the Arctic
Russian energy company Rosneft announced the discovery of a massive oil resource in the Pechora Sea with an estimated 82 million tons of oil.
A drilling campaign in the Medynsko-Varandeysky area led to the discovery of the field. “During the tests, a free flow of oil was obtained with a maximum flow rate of 220 cubic meters a day,” the company’s statement read on Wednesday, noting that the “oil is light, low-sulfur, low viscosity.”
Related to this, here’s an interesting graph of changes in Russian energy exports. Note the huge increase of exports to India. How much of that is being resold? Also note the increase of Russia’s leverage over Turkey:
Here’s something for Germans to enjoy while they await the really important stuff—social reforms in Ukraine:
Germany's second-largest city is preparing to ration hot water as the Russia energy crisis escalates
Hamburg, the largest non-capital city in the European Union, has warned that it could ration be forced to hot water as the Russian energy crisis causes chaos.
Jens Kerstan, environment senator for Germany's second biggest city, told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag on Saturday that Hamburg could restrict availability of hot water to certain times of days "in an acute gas shortage."
"We are in a much worse crisis than most people realize," Kerstan said in a separate interview with the Hamburger Abendblatt on Sunday. He urged people to take shorter showers, avoid full baths, and install modern thermostats and water-saving shower heads.
Here’s a long essay by an academic type Russia expert, if you’re interested:
Avoiding a Russian Quagmire, the Improbable Ukrainian Peace, and the Risk of Direct Russo-NATO War
Gordon Hahn ^ | June 30 22 | Gordon HahnUkraine is losing and will lose its war with Russia. For Moscow not to lose the peace, it is unfortunately the case that a rump Ukraine may no longer provide in Russian eyes the security from the NATO/Ukraine threat it understandably (to some) seeks. Time is running out to avert a larger, truly Ukraine-wide war carried successfully by Moscow into the country’s more anti-Russian western regions and Kiev, putting an end to the Ukrainian state in lieu of NATO military intervention. However, a Russian-occupied Ukraine will simmer with partisan warfare and neofascist terrorism for some time, leaving the risk of a larger war in place should the West persist in arming Moscow’s foes. Unless Western diplomacy, first of all US policy, moves into high gear and is prepared to make the necessary compromises with Moscow, Ukraine is likely to disappear from the world stage as an independent state and a larger Russo-NATO war will become an imminent prospect, threatening not just Europe and Russia but the world with a nuclear conflagration. …
I believe this was always in the cards, which is why it took Russia so long to respond to US provocations. Russia, for deep cultural reasons, did not want this war that was forced upon it by the aggression of the combined Neocon and Davos led West.
Finally, a breaking story which is totally counter intuitive. For 2A supporters, Highland Park, IL—which is Deep Blue even by IL standards—is well known for its extreme “assault weapon” ban, which bans even the possession in a gun safe of any firearm within a very broadly defined categoy of “assault weapons.” For those not familiar with IL constitutional law, IL has what’s known as “home rule.” What that means in practice is that, while Cook County passed an extreme gun control law, it was up to local communities whether or not they wanted to adopt it—leading to an extreme patchwork of local ordinances.
Here’s an article that summarizes the legal history:
Cook County, Chicago and many north suburban towns, including Evanston, Highland Park, Highwood, North Chicago and Skokie, all passed their own local assault weapon bans. (Skokie, Evanston, Highwood and Northbrook have confirmed they have no records of enforcing their bans.)
Arie Friedman, a pediatrician and unsuccessful 2010 candidate for Congress and 2012 candidate for Illinois Senate, challenged Highland Park's ban. In 2015, the 7th Circuit upheld the district court opinion granting summary judgement to the city and keeping the ordinance in place. Friedman appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which in December 2015 declined to hear the case.
Only Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas favored reconsidering the appellate court's decision at the time.
So, the Highland Park law was one of the laws that lower courts left in place in defiance of the Constitution and the two landmark SCOTUS cases. This is the type of activity by lower courts that led to the Bruen case that just overturned all these laws. In the Highland Park case Frank Easterbrook, a Reagan appointee, notably wrote for the 7th Circuit:
there is a "substantial benefit" to the Highland Park ordinance if it makes the public feel less at risk from a mass shooting.
Currently there are 5 dead and 16 wounded as a result of a mass shooting at the 4th of July parade in Highland Park today. So much for the substantial benefit of feeling less at risk, touted by Easterbrook, which trumped the Second Amendment. Go figure, right?
The story is breaking all over the country, but here’s where I first picked it up:
Illinois 4th of July parade erupts into chaos after multiple people shot: Report
Fox News ^ | 7/4/22 | Anders Hagstrom
No word yet, as far as I’ve heard, for the motive. It appears that the shooter was perched atop a building. I’ve heard nothing about any possible suspects, which at least suggests that a getaway plan was in place and that, additionally and initially, suggests a political motivation of some sort. Speculation is, of course, subject to revision when additional info becomes available.
Arrested shooter alive.
Looks like a really screwed up guy:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/police-name-person-interest-highland-park-parade-shooting-robert-bobby-crimo-iii/
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/07/04/highland-park-suspected-shooter-identified-as-22-year-old-robert-e-crimo-iii-suspect-vehicle-2010-silver-honda-fit/