Food For Election Optimism For Today
There was a fascinating article on the election yesterday that I read but didn't go with, because there was other news going on and, well, we all know the polls are voter suppression tools targeted against GOPers. However, here is that article now:
Dems in Absolute Panic As Early Data Shatters Narrative in Key States
Here's how the article starts--quoting Politico:
Up until this weekend, the Democratic victory narrative has been this: Dems will outperform in early and mail in voting. Republicans, leerier to mail-in voting, will opt for in person voting and will outperform on election day. However, in the end, the in-person voting will not be enough to overcome the massive early voting numbers by the Democrats.
This weekend that narrative shattered in some key states. It’s absolute panic.
Politico’s lead story today contains this revealing quote about many anxiety-ridden memos in Democratic offices:
“Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos and bracing for a long two weeks.”
Right. They've been living in a fool's paradise.
Shipwrecked crew makes a similar point today, also quoting Politico to conjure up the state of abject panic in which the Left finds itself:
SWC hammers home his point about Dems living in a fool's paradise (my term) by referring to an article from a year ago--October 2019. The article--Democrats fear more Trump Voters in Wisconsin --points out that there was ample reason in 2016 that should have warned Hillary that Wisconsin was never in the bag for the Dems. It's all interesting for election junkies, but here's how SWC concludes, with a really telling quote that slams anyone who thinks that Trump somehow maxed out his base in 2016:
Here’s the nightmare part that was recognized by the author and political analyst last year.
[W]hat if Trump represents not a last gasp of cultural and racial revanchism but a new wave? What if the trickle of white men who voted for the first time in years in Wisconsin in 2016, despite widespread predictions that Trump’s candidacy was doomed, is followed in 2020 by a wave of previously nonvoting white males who conclude that Trump’s brand of tribal aggression is at last something worth voting for?
The universe of nonvoters is vast. Nationwide, 4 in 10 of those eligible did not vote in 2016 . According to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, more than 21 million nonvoters in 2016 were non-college-educated white men, Trump’s base. In Wisconsin … 459,000 non-college-educated white men didn’t vote in 2016. Trump won non-college-educated white men nationwide by an astounding 50 points. A modest rise in their turnout in key states in 2020 could swamp the Democratic nominee.
This dynamic is not limited to Wisconsin. This dynamic is why Pennsylvania is not really in play even though the press needs to pretend it is in order to keep Democrat hopes alive.
And this is also the point of the demographic information the Trump campaign has been pumping out about the Trump rallies over the last 4 years. The campaign has eagerly sought out and obtained ID information from rally attendees--for GOTV purposes. The have also regularly highlighted to the rest of us how many of those attendees--remarkably high percentages--are not part of the usual GOP base (already in the bag for Trump) but are registered Dems or non-voters. But we all know that non-voters who go to Trump rallies will be almost surefire Trump voters come November. And the Trump campaign is taking no chances, with a huge outreach program.