Follow-up On Tucker Interview: Iran

It’s hard to know where to begin today, with regard to the war on Iran. As usual, the fundamentals control—Trump badly needs to end this war, especially if he plans to pivot against Russia. His disastrous war has the US on the brink of a real energy crisis. While Trump gaslights the public about “should be” gas at the pump prices of $2.25/gallon, the real crunch will come with diesel and jet fuel shortages—exacerbated in no small measure by the jet fuel intensive war on Iran. We cited Professor Pape a week or two ago, who attended a conference of energy economists at UChicago, that the real crunch will come—it’s baked in, no matter the supposed “opening” of Hormuz—by the end of July or beginning of August. Have you noticed, by the way, that none of the recent strikes at Iran—starting with one right before Trump caved to Iran’s MOU terms—involved long range flights of the big bombers from bases in the UK or other distant locations? Yeah.

Those are the fundamentals—along with the realization of military defeat and the exhaustion of resources. Most of this has been hidden from the American people, but they’ll be learning about it:

Trump, under the direction and control of fanatical Jewish Nationalists, continues to extract face saving revisions to the MOU’s tough terms. For example, he has coerced Lebanon’s puppet government to concede to an Israeli military presence in Lebanon—as if that fulfills the MOU demand that Lebanese sovereignty be honored. He also continues to try to maintain a US presence around Hormuz, even striking at Iran yesterday after Iran struck a vessel that wasn’t conforming to its dictates.

This won’t change what’s inevitable. The phony deal with a toothless Lebanese government won’t deter Hezbollah, or Iran. I even doubt that the Israeli goal of inducing a civil war in Lebanon between the government and Hezbollah—openly stated as a goal by Israeli 13—will materialize. The Lebanese military is in no condition to take on Hezbollah. Nor is Syria’s ISIS government in such a position. These are efforts to induce chaos to reduce pressure on Israel, which is suffering another disaster in south Lebanon, but my guess is that the interests of influential regional powers—Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, even Pakistan—will prevail over those of the Anglo-Zionists.

Regarding the recent military activity at Hormuz, I’ll cite Larry Johnson’s conclusion from last night:

The Shooting in the Strait Ain’t over, But…

Instead of marking a return to war, this exchange of fire can best be categorize as military political theater. I believe that Iran, thanks to intel from the Russians or the Chinese, has learned that the US has issued orders that will initiate the return to CONUS of the aircraft, vehicles and troops that had been deployed to the region in preparation for the 28 February attack. Because of the limited damage inflicted by the US attack, I believe that Iran chose to respond in a limited fashion rather than escalate and run the risk of the US cancelling the redeployment order.

For now, Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz and ships wanting to transit the Strait are adhering to Iran’s new policy.

Two points.

First, Iran did respond with its own strike at US bases, but the most recent reports are that Iran underlined, as it were, its position in control of Hormuz by once again striking a non-compliant ship:

Iran Responds With Drone Attack On Bahrain, Another Hit On Ship In Hormuz

In other words, Iran remains undeterred and is insisting on its understanding of the MOU, no matter Trump’s attempts at revision. But Iran isn’t simply accepting this as “theater”. The fact is that what matters most to Iran is actual control over Hormuz—not any “final agreement” that they know they wouldn’t be able to count on, anyway. Thus:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

49m

“Stabilizing the management of the Strait of Hormuz, receiving compensation for damages, returning frozen assets, lifting sanctions, and the withdrawal of the US from the region are among the inviolable demands of the leadership and the people, which must be pursued while preserving the honor and dignity of the Iranian nation.

Any negligence in this regard will definitely be met with the reaction of the nation.” — Iran’s Assembly of Experts

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

BREAKING: Iranian negotiators are considering completely canceling the technical talks in Switzerland scheduled for June 28-29 following yesterday’s US strikes on Sirik in southern Iran, per Iran Nuances.

The negotiators believe the “blatant violation of Article 1 of the MoU” must be responded to by halting all negotiations, including the rest of the 60-day period.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

Jun 26

Many think the MOU means peace has arrived. This is a mistake

The MOU simply moves the battlefield to negotiations

Iran wants power, not just money for “performance”

HFI Research @HFI_Research

20h

Following the US attack, the Southern lane is eerily quiet. My analysis of the situation is that IRGC will implement a full closure on the Oman route. The US will have to retaliate.

This back and forth is unlikely to resolve itself. The issue for the US is now that $12 billion has already been released, and Iran got both the cargoes they need and the 40 million bbls out of the Gulf of Oman; the balance shifts against the US.

…

The IRGC retailiated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It’s a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.

On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.

In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it’s a question of what the US does after.

I think this is only the beginning.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

7h

US-led JMIC & UKMTO continue to ask vessels to use their “safe” corridor... they’re insisting, testing Iran’s reactions, but at the end Iran will regain full control of the strait, or they’re ready to return to war for it.

Now, the second point is potentially by far the most important. Johnson has been reporting—as we saw above—that orders have been issued for the withdrawal of at least significant parts of the US military buildup that took place before the February 28th attack on Iran. Any withdrawal of significant forces will greatly weaken the Anglo-Zionist strategic position—and yet from a logistics/supply standpoint the maintenance of those forces in the region has to be considered untenable. That’s especially the case because of the continuing danger of a resumption of Iranian attacks on US bases as well as the strain on fuel, munitions, and personnel. In other words, slowly but surely the US is being pushed to the margins of the region. The regional states know what this means and are quietly beginning to make “other arrangements” with Iran. For example:

The Cradle @TheCradleMedia

Iran & UAE to resume flights starting 1 July

——

Iran and the United Arab Emirates will resume flights between the two countries starting 1 July after aviation authorities from both sides issued the necessary operating permits, according to Majid Akhavan, spokesman for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization.

…

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

8h

UAE replace the adjective “terrorist” they use in their statements condemning Iranian attacks by “hostile”. I guess it’s due to improvement in their relations.

Everything is changing, and Trump can’t control it.

But Jewish Nationalists continue to work the levers of power in DC, threatening a resumption of war on Iran. Who thinks this can work?

Tom Cotton just said Arab nations aren’t begging for peace. They’re asking President Trump for targeting info so they can join the fight against Iran.

“LOL” hardly begins to describe one’s reaction to this level of gaslighting. Or how about this?

It seems to me that events are closing in on Trump. This can’t continue for too much longer. Past Labor Day?