Here I want to present an edited portion of a recent missive from my friend George. Hopefully readers will recall my contention during Election 2016 that Trump regarded Germany—not Russia—as his main America’s main strategic challenge in Europe. George addresses German ambitions, and the challenge that poses for any US regime that is minimally aware of what’s going on in the world. That excludes the Zhou regime. The US is not taking the sensible steps—such as cultivating a more positive relationship with Latin America—to ensure its future:
A united China and the EU can, from the standpoint of modern financial architecture, pose a real threat to US dominance. Moreover, China's economy is critically linked to German innovation, which dominates it.
Germany’s importance to China is real and cannot be too strongly stressed.
Add to this Russian gas, which simultaneously feeds both China and Germany, and we get an oil painting. But that's not all. Few non-specialists know that about half of all investments in South America are of European origin. And the US share here is barely a quarter.
For what follows, understand that George (who is not a fan of the current Polish regime) is referring to Jarowsław Kaczyński—the notoriously Russophobe Deputy Prime Minister of Poland. That title—Deputy Prime Minister—is a bit misleading with regard to Kaczyński’s actual status in Europe, as Wikipedia explains:
Since the 2015 victories of PiS, both in the presidential and parliamentary election, Kaczyński is considered to be the most important politician in Poland and one of the most influential European leaders. For this reason, in Poland he is called by some people the "Chief of State" (following the example of Józef Piłsudski). In 2020, he was designated as the Deputy Prime Minister of Poland with oversight over the defense, justice and interior ministries.
To continue:
So, does it turn out that Kaczyński is right when he says that Germany today is building the Fourth Reich, by which he understands the European Union, the leader of which is Germany?
In my opinion, he is absolutely right. Germany strove for economic dominance in Europe and the formation of a single market under its control under both Bismarck's (Second) and Hitler's (Third) Reichs. That today, after the exit from the European Union of Britain, has been largely implemented.
But, says George, this Fourth Reich is unlikely to repeat the two front mistake of the Third Reich:
But if Germany builds the "Fourth Reich", then wouldn’t this lead to a tough confrontation not only with America, but also with Russia? Thus, leading—just as during the Second World War—the US and Russia to become allies in opposition to the EU?
If we proceed from the pragmatic logic of common sense, then Germany does not need to quarrel with Russia, which in the "Fourth Reich" is assigned the role of a raw-materials province, "and we will buy everything else" (A. Chubais). Recall that Lenin for a long time advocated the creation of a United States of Europe and hatched plans to move the leadership of the Third International from Moscow to Berlin - as the center of the New World. In fact, Hitler pursued the same plans, only relying not on international, but on national socialism.
In addition, back then no one seriously took into account the role of China, and today it is becoming the dominant industrial power in Eurasia. True, the industrial economy is yesterday, and in this regard, the absolute indicator of the production of everything in a row, the shaft of industrial output, is inferior to the production of exclusively high-tech products.
This is the real post-industrial (innovative) economy, which is based on automated production systems (robotics), which operate more cheaply and more efficiently than the already useless proletariat, which has turned from a once progressive force of history into a reactionary one, since subsidized support for obsolete industrial enterprises draws resources to innovative programs.
Thus, in the new continental alliance, Moscow and Beijing will play the role of tie-ins, while the controlling stake will be in the hands of Berlin. In any case, this is how it appears from the position of today's arrangement of key pieces on the Grand Chessboard.
Thus we see the importance of what I view as Trump’s strategy: detaching Russia through a true reboot—respecting Russia’s strategic concerns in return for cooperation against the incipient Eurasian empire of the Fourth Reich.
With respect to George, phooey. Not buying it. Yes, there is a lot of sense in the view that an alliance between Germany, Russia, and China *could* pose a grave threat to the US. And if this was our grandfather's time such thinking would be worth fretting over. But not now. Not 2022. Why?
1. The geopolitical landscape is one big game of musical chairs. Every major power on earth has deep, fatal flaws just waiting to erupt. Like the game, no one knows when the "music" will stop and who will be left without a chair on which to sit. Therefore the one key is to outlast the others, to be the last one to collapse. No matter how EU/ Russia/ CCP try to combine, it won't be enough to overcome their basic, structural flaws. They are all on a collision course for ruin. The US is different.
2. Which brings point 2. The US has fatal flaws too but unlike the others, ours are imposed by a gangster government intent on domination and extorting every last productive cent. The US has been uniquely blessed with everything needed for a strong, healthy state. It's only the wanton self destruction of the gangsters that have us at this sorry situation.
3. Nonetheless we should be worried but not about some Eurasian empire. We should worry because the US is no longer a country worth defending. We are under occupation by an illegal and corrupt regime. In such a pass there cant be any rooting for this regime. We cant wish Sock Puppet and his Techno Bolsheviks success or better strategy. We can only hope that legitimate government is restored here in peaceful revolution. Then and only then can we get nack in the great chess match.
Nice analysis and I love your conclusion about Trump's strategy. Will Putin be content being considered a "provincial leader" in the Fourth Reich? I highly doubt it, especially when he now has critical control over Germany's energy supply. Even if the Germans allowed him to reconstitute the USSR (and they won't) I don't think he would ever trust Germany or make Russia's future dependent on the Germans. Too much history and psychology there.