Emerging Results Of The Polish Election

I made no secret of the fact that I hoped that the results of the Polish election, whatever they turned out to be, would lead to a moderation of the Law and Justice government’s fiercely confrontational attitude toward virtually all surrounding countries. Russia and Germany, of course, headed the list of pariah states, in the view of the Law and Justice government, but they were by no means the only two countries singled out for rhetorical slams. Big Serge points to one sign that this may be in the works. This possible development may also single a continuing distancing of Poland from its outrageously foolish war on Russia.

I’ve been somewhat bemused by the take of many commentators that simply because Donald Tusk—who is likely to lead the new Polish government—is a devious tool of the EU, that Poland would pursue the same war policy that it has for the past two years. Tusk’s coalition, as I stressed, is likely to be fractious and a continuation of Law and Justice policies would undermine that coalition—in my non-expert opinion. So the signal I’ll describe is probably a bad sign for what remains of NATO—which now seems to basically boil down to the US, UK, and Poland. This has to be encouraging for Russian diplomacy, just as it will be a blow for the Neocon strategery against Russia. So let’s begin.

Baron of the Taiga @baronitaigas

Oct 20

New Polish government may scrap plans to increase the armed forces to 300,000 personnel.

The planned doubling in size of the Polish military was to have been accompanied by huge purchases of expensive Western weapons systems, which would have still left Poland no match for Russia. Bear in mind that the total strength of a modern military is heavily weighted toward support troops, not fighting units. A total strength of 300k would leave Poland with a fighting force that would be a tiny fraction of what Russia can field. Plus, it would never, ever, catch up technologically—its simply doesn’t have the industrial base for that.

Politically, Big Serge provides a wry historical note:

Big Serge @witte_sergei

If you know Polish history at all, you’ll recognize this. Parliamentary dysfunction scuttling the country’s plans to be a great power is a leitmotif of Poland’s story.

2:24 PM · Oct 20, 2023

What Serge is referring to is the infamous Liberum Veto that helped lead to Poland being partitioned among its neighbors, due to the selfishness of its ruling class:

The liberum veto (Latin for "free veto") was a parliamentary device in the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. It was a form of unanimity voting rule that allowed any member of the Sejm (legislature) to force an immediate end to the current session and to nullify any legislation that had already been passed at the session by shouting either Sisto activitatem! (Latin: "I stop the activity!") or Nie pozwalam! (Polish: "I do not allow!"). The rule was in place from the mid-17th century to the late 18th century in the Sejm's parliamentary deliberations. It was based on the premise that since all of the Polish–Lithuanian noblemen were equal, every measure that came before the Sejm had to be passed unanimously. ...

Many historians hold that the liberum veto was a major cause of the deterioration of the Commonwealth political system, particularly in the 18th century, when foreign powers bribed Sejm members to paralyze its proceedings, causing foreign occupation, dominance and manipulation of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth and its eventual destruction in the partitions. ... In the period of 1573–1763, about 150 sejms were held, about a third failing to pass any legislation, mostly because of the liberum veto. ...

Now, Serge is being unfair. The Polish Sejm (parliament) is no longer the sandbox of the Szlachta (nobility). What is happening is legal and follows a nationwide vote that can be taken to be a rejection of the previous government’s policies. Still, it is an indication of how divided Poland is, thanks to the machinations of the Neocons in no small part. And so some commentators are poking fun:

Monophthalmos @AMonophthalmos

Oct 20

The circle of Polish history:

> Exploit power vacuum

> Annoy more powerful neighbours

> Become a dysfunctional mess

> Get crushed by more powerful neighbours

> Get reinstated by others to piss off the neighbours

> Repeat

Other more charitable commentators view this as a positive development, showing that Poles can responsibly demand accountability from an out of control government through elections:

Artee @twicepvnishedK

I imagine that alot of Polish politicians actually do want an off-ramp regarding that militarization promise. It is highly unfeasible and was practically made in a heated moment

mannice431 @mannice4311

Their plans on increasing the size of the army and buying all the shit they planned to buy were not feasible without massive militarization which would probably turn out unpopular in a democratic regime.

Carnodars @carnodars

To quote the immortal Bismarck: No need to defeat Poles in battle. Just put them in power and they‘ll defeat themselves.

Those familiar with Polish humor will know that Poles recognize this unfortunate national trait.

Arnd @arndmartinj

It’s a Leitmotiv because Poland always lacked the economical base for this, the current gigantic arms orders are for example financially absolutely unsustainable.

So, maybe a positive already.