Disturbing: Trump's History Of Nuclear Nuttiness

I stand behind my post of yesterday: I Can't Believe I'm Doing This ... The basic ideas in that post were that:

• No ballistic missile subs ever got redeployed, despite Trump’s announcement of their redeployment;

• Trump may or may not understand the role of ballistic missiles subs in the overall scheme of US nuclear deterrence doctrine;

• Trump probably made his redeployment statement for domestic effect to low IQ types;

• Regardless of any of the above, Trump’s redeployment statement carried with it a real risk of being misunderstood by a major nuclear power—Russia—and of putting the world on a knife’s edge of nuclear tension;

• Fortunately, Putin is a level headed sort of guy, not given to reckless theatrics.

That I was correct is indicated by the response of the Pentagon when queried about Trump’s statement—they said they’d “defer to” Trump on that. I suppose you could take that either way—as a confirmation or as a non-contradictory contradiction. Based on the totality of the circumstances, I choose to view it as indicating that no redeployment ever happened.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

 We never thought we’d say this, but we actually agree with Washington fossil John Bolton:

“It seems that Trump doesn’t really understand how our nuclear navy works…

…The nuclear submarines aren’t just sitting in port — they’re already in position to retaliate against a Russian nuclear strike.”

What’s really disturbing about this Trumpian behavior is that it takes place at a time of increasingly bellicose Western rhetoric accompanied by escalated provocations aimed at Russia, including an attack on Russia’s strategic bombers. It also reflects a fairly consistent pattern of nutty words and, worse, ill considered and even underhanded actions by Trump in the area of nuclear arms. Consider past actions by Trump during Trump 1.0.

First of all, in May 2018 Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA agreement with Iran—a foolish decision that came at the urging of crazed Jewish Nationalists and against the advice of arms control experts. Just a month ago we saw the results of this stupid decision. In the middle of negotiations with Iran that would have reinstated most of JCPOA, Trump launched a sneak attack (in conjunction with Israel) on Iran. The outcome? Trump’s underhanded attack was a dismal failure, and now we have no idea at all what Iran is doing with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. All we know is that we’ve given Iran every incentive in the world to manufacture nuclear warheads to place on the missiles they already have—and which we can’t stop. Well played! It makes one wonder about those Epstein files that Trump’s name was redacted from.

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

Trump would release the Epstein files, but he "does not want people to get hurt".

- In terms of narrative control, are we now back to recognising there are Epstein files?

Robert Barnes @barnes_law

Amazing how all the "shut up about Epstein" folks are all #IsraelFirst war whores. Connection?

Quote

 Mike Davis @mrddmia

Any ceasefire must end.

Israel must finish the job. x.com/MarinaMedvin/s…

Then, in October 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the INF Treaty. This occurred amid accusations by the usual suspects of Russian violations—denied by Russia, which made counter accusations against the US. However, Trump’s decision was made against the advice of nuclear control experts but in the context of constant urging—over a period of years—from the wacked out Neocons he had surrounded himself with and who had repeatedly and publicly argued that the US could initiate and survive a nuclear war on Russia. The result? Russia greatly accelerated its missile development programs, including the development of conventional but hypersonic missiles with greatly enhanced destructive power—leaving the US in the dust. Well played!

This disturbing openness to bad judgment calls in an existential context continued after 2020—and here we owe a major h/t to commenter susan mullen. With the start of the Russian SMO in Ukraine Trump weighed in on what he would have done:

Trump says he would send nuclear submarines to go 'up and down' Russia's coast to pressure Putin

• Donald Trump on Monday suggested the US deploy nuclear submarines to put pressure on Vladimir Putin.

• He suggested the submarines ply a route "up and down" the Russian coast.

• Trump said he heard Putin "constantly using the n-word" — the "nuclear word" — during their talks.

…

"I listened to him constantly using the n-word, that's the n-word, and he's constantly using it: the nuclear word," Trump said during an appearance on Fox Business, referring to his talks with Putin during his presidency.

"And we say, 'Oh, he's a nuclear power.' But we're a greater nuclear power. We have the greatest submarines in the world, the most powerful machines ever built," he told the host Stuart Varney.

"You should say, 'Look, you mention that word one more time, we're going to send them over and we'll be coasting back and forth, up and down your coast," Trump said. "You can't let this tragedy continue. You can't let these, these thousands of people die."

The US has a fleet of 14 Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarines "designed specifically for stealth and the precise delivery of nuclear warheads," per the US Navy.

On February 27, Putin placed Russia's nuclear-deterrent forces on high alert in response to what he said were "illegitimate Western sanctions" imposed following his country's invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier this month, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg — who served as national security advisor to Vice President Mike Pence during Trump's presidency — suggested that the US deploy all of its ballistic-missile submarines to see whether Putin was "bluffing."

And about that “N-word” usage by Putin. Can you imagine that Putin in private—as he has consistently done in public—would bring up the need for renewing negotiations on issues surrounding the “N-word”? Like, restarting arms control treaty negotiations? I sure can. And that probably annoyed Trump, because he doesn’t like people suggesting that he screwed up.

Do you see a pattern here? Trump appears to be one of those guys who can dish out the mean tweets but whines when he has trouble responding. Just a few weeks ago he was complaining about the “nasty” statements that Iran makes—like he never says nasty things—with the hint that his perception of nasty rhetoric might affect war/peace decisions. Those kinds of Trumpian responses are becoming more and more common—vaguely ominous threats issued at people who disagree with him.

Most recently this whole missile sub flap was a result of Trump impulsively jumping into a verbal dispute between Lindsey! and Medvedev—who isn’t even a truly senior Russian official. Trump’s impulsive response to Medvedev closely mirrors both his and Kellogg’s really stupid statements above. Trump’s idea of having ballistic missile subs “cruise the coast” of Russia (as if they aren’t out there already, and as if the Russians aren’t also) illustrates his abysmal lack of understanding of the issues involved. Or his willingness to gaslight the American public. Kellogg’s idea of playing a game of nuclear chicken—more or less for the hell of it, just to “find out”—is too stupid to even merit comment. And yet Kellogg remains one of Trump’s closest advisers.

When I first questioned whether Trump is showing signs of mental impairment I got a certain amount of pushback:

Is Dementia Contagious?

Some time ago I suggested that Trump might be suffering from a form of dementia that manifests itself in impaired judgment—popping off without thinking things through, just minimally. That might well be part of the explanation for what Doug Macgregor—who, remember, dealt with Trump personally—complains about: That Trump tends to agree with the last person he spoke with. …

On Friday an article on that topic appeared at The Hill, and it didn’t even take any of the nuclear matters into account. But it’s well worth considering. Just imagine as you read that you’re reading about Zhou:

Trump’s mental decline is undeniable — so what now?

“Confabulation.” It’s a word you are going to be hearing a lot in the coming months.

President Trump has always been willing to mislead people when it was to his advantage. Even his supporters recognize this. Hence the famous admonition to “take Trump seriously, not literally.”

But what Trump is doing now is something different. Confabulation is sometimes called “honest lying,” because the person doing it genuinely believes what he’s saying, even if it is obviously and patently false. A person confabulates when they are telling completely invented stories that don’t provide them any particular tangible benefit. In other words, it’s not like lying to try and get out of a speeding ticket.

Confabulation isn’t misremembering a date or forgetting something. The mistakes of memory we are all subject to become confabulation when people remember false information in vivid detail — detail so vivid and complete that people who don’t know otherwise often believe what they are hearing is true.

In older people, confabulation is one of the clearest early signs of dementia. The day you witness someone confabulate is often the day you are forced to admit to yourself that a beloved parent needs help, and that all the little slips and oddities you’ve been seeing can no longer be rationalized away.

For Trump, the day we could no longer pretend everything is fine came on July 15, when he told a lengthy story about his uncle, John Trump, who he claimed taught at MIT and held three degrees in “nuclear, chemical, and math.” His uncle, according to Trump, once told him how he had taught Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber, and how very smart Kaczynski was.

Trump’s uncle was indeed a professor at MIT, but everything else in this story is pure confabulation. Trump’s uncle didn’t have degrees in “nuclear, chemical, and math” — he had degrees in electrical engineering and physics. And Kaczynski did not go to MIT at all — he went to Harvard.

But most telling of all, it is categorically impossible for Trump’s uncle to have told him any such story. Kaczynski became publicly known as the Unabomber when he was arrested in 1996. Trump’s uncle, the MIT professor, died in 1985. In other words, Trump’s uncle could not have told him the story because there was, literally, no story to tell during his lifetime.

Once you have seen that Donald Trump is confabulating, it cannot be unseen — and all sorts of other mildly disturbing incidents suddenly fall into place.

…

Does Trump confabulate about other things—for example, about his past dealings with foreign leaders? Like, when he tells us that he told both Putin and Xi that he would “bomb the shit” out of their respective capital cities if they crossed him? That would be Moscow and Beijing, if you were wondering. Or was he simply lying? Because I don’t believe he actually did that, any more than I believe two ballistic missile subs just redeployed. How comfortable are you having a confabulator as CinC?

I know that if I were a Dem, I’d definitely be on the confabulation band wagon. But why stop there? If I were a Dem I’d be all over the talking point that Trump is gonna get us all killed with his crazy nuke talk. Far from being mutually exclusive, these are talking points that go hand in hand. If there’s one way for the Dems to get back into mid-term contention, Trump is giving it to them on a silver platter. Because I’d be willing to bet that the great majority of Americans are scared shitless at the thought of a confabulator who keeps popping off about nukes. I’d also be willing to bet that GOP strategists, such as they are, are getting alarmed, too.