Differing Views On What To Expect In The Middle East
The current speculation centers on the very short term—how will Hezbollah and Iran respond to the latest Israeli acts of war. Both have vowed revenge and both have the ability to strike deep into Israel. On the other hand, a massive response is exactly what Israel wants. The US has repeatedly stated that it will help Israel defend itself—if Israel is attacked. That looks like a clear indication that Israel should not count on the US stepping in if Israel starts a war. On the other hand, one suspects that if Israel starts a war that it can’t finish—one that threatens to finish Israel—the US will take action. Exactly what type of action even Israel may not know. For that matter, the US military may not know.
That also means that, one way or another, the future is as much in Israel’s hands as it is in the hands of the Axis of resistance. Israel has already got itself in over its head, and the only way to avoid a strategic defeat is to embroil the US in a major regional conflict. Israel is said by many analysts to have a green light to attack Lebanon, yet it hasn’t done so. The reason may lie in the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Brown’s statement that US aid is limited.
Listening to Doug Macgregor and Judge Nap today, Macgregor voiced the fear that he has expressed for months. Macgregor believes that the only way that Israel’s military can prevail in Lebanon is by using tactical nukes—which various Israeli officials have hinted at. But that will draw Iran in, which has the ability to devastate Israel. If Israel—or the US—attempts to take out Iran’s nuclear facilitiess Macgregor believes Russia (and quite possibly China) will enter, even against the US. That brings us into WW3 territory.
How this plays out may depend on how Hezbollah and Iran respond. Israel is looking for a response that is disproportionate—so that it can claim that its own further escalation is in self defense, thus hopefully triggering US involvement. That didn’t work the last time, when Iran demonstrated its ability to successfully strike even the most heavily defended Israeli sites, including those defended by the US. On the other hand, the Axis of Resistance appears to be winning a strategic victory. Israel is reacting in desperation, so why play into that? Here’s an alternate view. Take it for what you think it’s worth:
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman
1. The Haniyeh assassination is unlikely to drag Iran into a wider war. Iranians leaders understand that Israel is achieving tactical wins in the midst of a strategic defeat.
Israel is making rash and escalatory moves because it is increasingly isolated, divided, and weak.
2. The spate of Israeli attacks and assassinations may be humiliating, but Iran has repeatedly calibrated its responses to these provocations, avoiding a wider war.
In the weeks after October 7, this was because of Iran's own reluctance to bear the costs of a larger conflict.
3. But now, Iranian leaders have come to understand that Netanyahu and other senior leaders in Israel are seeking a way out from the strategic defeat they face.
Their only path to victory is a wider war.
4. Iran must respond to the Haniyeh assassination and there is always the risk that a miscalculation and an effort to draw new "red lines" could trigger a wider war.
But Haniyeh's death is part of a years-long pattern that reflects Iranian interests as much as Israeli ones.
5. It's in Iran's interest to absorb tactical defeats while Israel faces a strategic defeat.
Israel has destroyed Gaza. But as the world bears witness to a genocide, Israel is also tearing the fabric of its own society to shreds.
Consider the events at Sde Teiman... [The notorious Israeli concentration camp]
6. Insecure countries generate insecurity. That is the clear lesson from both Iran and Israel. We need to break the cycle...
But we continue to worry about forestalling a wider war, when an already catastrophic war is unfolding.
The priority should be ending the war in Gaza.
7. A postscript to say that "strategic defeat" isn't Iranian rhetoric. It's an objective assessment. Way back in December, the @SecDef publicly warned that Israel was heading for a strategic defeat because of the mounting civilian death toll in Gaza. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-02/defense-secretary-austin-warns-of-risk-for-israel-over-civilian-deaths-in-gaza…
Hmmmm:
Dmitry Medvedev on Telegram:
"The knot is tightening in the Middle East. Sorry for the innocent lives lost. They are but hostages of a disgusting state: the USA.
Meanwhile, it’s clear to everyone that a full-scale war is the only way to a shaky peace in the region."
Wise Iran. Why prevent an enemy from defeating himself?