I’ve taken a bit of a mental health day, and unfortunately it appears there’s a fair amount of interest “out there”. This brief transcript of Alexander Mercouris answering two questions from a person who listened to the Nordstream segment with Jeffrey Sachs may be of interest to readers. The two questions and answers that I’ve transcribed have nothing to do with Nordstream, but they do address concerns for America’s future coming out of the economic front of the war on Russia—the effects of De-Dollarization, which by now appears to be an inevitable process:
Q: There's a lot of talk of the world moving off the petro-dollar. What effect will that have on the average American and the US economy?
A: Depends very much how it's handled and how fast it happens. The risk is that, if there's a massive rush from the dollar, that will cause dollars--and there are trillions of them floating around the world--to migrate where they can still buy things, which is in the United States itself. That will cause money supply in the United States to explode, and that will lead to much higher inflation within the United States. That's what happened to Britain in the 60s and early 70s when the British pound sterling lost its reserve currency status, and it's one of the reasons that inflation in Britain in the 60s and 70s was much higher than it was in other parts of the West. That is what could happen. And, of course, that kind of inflation resurge would affect living standards in the United States. Of course, there would also be other problems. The United States would not be able to print dollars to cover its budget and trade deficits, in the way that it does now. It might have to cut back on its domestic spending, which might also affect living standards, put downward pressure on living standards. And last, but not least, perhaps most important of all, the United States might be confronted with difficult choices about military spending, as well--because, again, the reason the United States is able to spend $800 billion dollars a year on its military, which is more than the next 9 countries combined, is because it can print dollars, in the knowledge that the dollar is the reserve currency and those printed dollars will retain value. So, [de-dollarization] would be a pretty momentous event, if and when it happens.
Q: Is there still hope for America, or is it time to leave?
A: No, there IS hope for America, in fact I'm gonna insist on this. Despite all that I've just been saying about the turbulence, the United States, coming out of this process—provided it maintains political stability—retains all the means it needs to remain a very wealthy country and a great power. Maybe not the global hegemon but, in my opinion, trying to maintain the position of global hegemon is now eating into the economic vitality of the United States and is creating all kinds of pressures--domestic political pressures--within the United States. So it could actually be--after the turbulence--a liberating moment. But that will be for the Americans themselves to make it happen.
I’ll add what I consider an important note. Mercouris is correct to stress the need for maintaining “political stability.” In the past, Mercouris has expressed the view that—in comparison to most of Europe, for example—America remains politically stable. Just today he expressed his fascination with how few in America are actually guiding the political process astray. So he’s hopeful. What I would add is that there cannot be political stability without cultural stability, which is why I periodically get into culture war matters—because they have a fundamental importance.
I recently read Peter Zeihan's book, "The End of the World is Just the Beginning. (Harper Collins, 2022). He is predicting the end of Globalization--too many of the industrial (and even semi-industrial) countries are not maintaining their population, and will be unable to maintain the manufacturing levels they have had in recent years. This hit the Japanese already--that's why Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru and others are building cars in the US; they no longer have enough people to build them all in Japan. And while US birthrates have declined recently during the Covid mess, we are not as bad off as a lot of countries. We also have the ability to be self-sufficient in food--a lot of countries are not. We are going to have to bring some industrial production back here. But other countries will be worse off.
There may be some rough stretches coming. But our resources and our internal transport networks--including our major internal rivers--will help us to get by in the long-term.
It was actually a bit nice to read some positivity, however slight. Our oceans do protect us from foreign invasion, notwithstanding the ongoing Reconquista. On a side note - let us hope they stop at Arizona, Cali and New Mexico.
Having said that, if we can weather the financial/economic disaster headed our way maybe, just maybe there are enough people who can right the cultural ship. Small pockets of "real Americans" who remember or were taught enough about the founding era that some semblance of liberty and freedom will grow. "Green shoots" or something akin to that. I think I remember that term being used before, somewhere. The fact is that there are no more open spaces. We have to carve out a place for America again. Lots of pain - economic, cultural, financial and otherwise - between now and then though. Let's pray it can be done.