Today has been a day filled with speculation, mostly focusing around the imminent “precise and surprising” strike against Iran—or not so imminent, depending on who you’re listening to. I’ve been listening to all the usual suspects. Some speak adamantly, others tentatively.
At Netanyahu’s insistence, Zhou and Kama Sutra spoke with him by phone. Who ever said life would be a bed of roses for anyone in the POTUS/VPOTUS position. Well, you can always go take a shower after talking to Netanyahu if you can’t avoid the distasteful and degrading necessity any longer. Apparently Zhou has been trying to avoid the phone all—the idea seems to have been that the WH preferred to talk to someone else in the Israeli government, but Netanyahu insisted on being the one. Anyway, it seems little of substance came out of the phone call—nothing like “green lights” or stuff like that. It seems the US position—and this may be at the insistence of the Pentagon or economic advisers or both—is that Israel should steer clear of nuclear and other energy sites. Am I reading too much into that if I speculate that the message is that US aerial refueling support—likely essential for any major strike—will only be forthcoming if a target list can be agreed upon.
The latest report, from the BBC, additionally suggests that disagreements are not confined to intra US players are to US - Israeli discussions. There are also disagreements at the highest level of the Israeli government:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
NEW:
 BBC reports from Israel that there is strong disagreement between Netanyahu's cabinet over the attack on Iran:
"The Israeli security cabinet meeting to finalize the plan to attack Iran was unsuccessful due to the disagreement of the officials and everything went up in the air!"
0:18 / 1:11
1:57 PM · Oct 11, 2024
Again, am I speculating a bridge too far if I wonder whether the final Iranian warning scared the pants off the Israeli military command? It’s clear that they were reluctanct to commit to ground ops in Lebanon in any major way. In fact, the push to the Litani has turned into a series of unsuccessful probing attacks that have incurred fairly heavy casualties. The main action appears to be savage Israeli - US bombings of the usual civilian sites accompanied by adjurations from Netanyahu to the Lebanese to kill each other before the bombing campaign does. Does the military believe that Netanyahu’s desired regional war could be a risk too far?
The IDF has been struggling to make progress in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah in attritious [sic] fighting in 11 days. At the most it has been able to push ~2.5km into Lebanese territory, unable to take and secure Hezbollah strongholds along the border.
More speculation. Where is Russia in all this? Well, Putin and a gaggle of top Russian officials are in Turkmenistan, meeting with Iranian president Pezeshkian. Will something big come out of this meeting? The signing of the Russia - Iran security treaty? No hint of that yet. Most of the talk has been about economic cooperation. However, Putin did state, in prepared remarks, that the two sides would be discussing matters of bilateral concern, including current events in the Middle East. In that statement Putin observed that the Russian and Iranian perspectives on such matters are “often very close”. Meaning? It doesn’t look like a message statement, but messages could be transmitted behind the scenes, too. The long and the short of it is that we can only speculate.
If you want to listen to something that will scare the wits out of you, try Scott Ritter:
Vladimir Putin has called a meeting with Iran in Turkmenistan to discuss the urgent crisis involving Israel's planned attack which could very well spiral into full fledged war. Former US Marine Corps Intelligence Officer and UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter returns for a mega livestream where he exposes Israel's path to destruction. This stream breaks down what comes next as fears of nuclear annihilation grow in the Middle East, Ukraine, and beyond.
Scott can be very persuasive. On the other hand, the meeting—while something of a surprise—doesn’t look like an “emergency meeting”, and almost certainly not an “EMERGENCY meeting.”
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
Iran & Russia leaders today, Ashgabat.
Pezeshkian did make this statement, but it wasn’t terribly bellicose. Apparently he’ll leave those statements to others (who have said, Iran is not afraid of war):
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
 Pezeshkian:
"I would like to tell Israel today to stop, stop killing innocent people, stop bombing residential buildings of people who have nothing....they do this because they know they're supported by the United States and EU."
Meanwhile, Israel strengthens its international pariah status, dragging the US even further into the mire—if that were possible:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 Israel began firing on Irish peacekeepers in Lebanon
"This morning, two peacekeepers were injured after an IDF Merkava tank fired its weapon towards an observation tower at UNIFIL's headquarters in Naqoura, directly hitting it and causing them to fall.
The injuries are fortunately, this time, not serious, but they remain in hospital." - UNIFIL reports.
Multiple reports say that they were Irish peacekeepers who had previously refused to withdraw on Israeli orders.
11:41 AM · Oct 10, 2024
Hezbollah says it voluntarily withheld fire on the Israeli forces that were using the UNIFIL troops as human shields.
Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics
JUST IN:  Italy has accused Israel of "war crimes" after Israeli shelling UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, leaving several soldiers wounded.
Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics
BREAKING:
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain refuse to allow Israel to use their airspace for attacks on Iran.
That came after Iran privately warned these nations of consequences, per the WSJ.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
 After France, now Spain calls for Global arms embargo on Israel
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez urged the international community to halt arms sales to Israel following Israeli fire that injured UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.
Sanchez condemned the assaults and criticized Israel's military actions against UN forces, emphasizing Spain's own decision to stop arms exports to Israel in October 2023.
He called for a collective global response to de-escalate tensions in the region.
Spain currently has 650 peacekeepers in Lebanon, with a Spanish general leading the mission.
More speculation incoming later?
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I concur with what has been said. The only problem is Benny. To repeat what i said before, for all the reasons stated before, and to include the weather getting bad in November (which i forgot about) he has to attack.
He will /may not get another chance of all the pieces being in the right place.
But maybe we will get lucky and he will cave in. No Attack on Iran . Then with no US ground involvement , he will eventually be defeated in Lebanon. Following that, he will then probably fall from power in the next 12 months and have to take his lumps.
Unless he gets real pressure from the US, I do not see the above happening. All indicators seem to show that the US has bought into the attack and an attack is now inevitable.
What really should make people angry is the US Military is going along with this. We are supporting this insanity with material , men and money. Now we are supporting a war criminal who is under indictment from the ICC. We have physical proof that his soldiers deliberately killed civilians . That they used excessive force. That they tortured people. It is an affront to the traditional principles of western Civilization. We have., many times in our history , failed to live up to those principles, but in this case, to blatantly disregarded these principles is sickening. The Moral compass of our Military is broke. That is dangerous for any Republic.
Have all the educated men and women in the US government forgotten about Nuremberg or the "Yamashita Standard" of the Tokyo war crime trials?? Apparently so.
a quick refresher.......
You are directly responsible if the people under your command commit war crimes. You can also be guilty if you support an Allies who commits war crimes.
But do we hear any Generals or other leaders saying: "No, I am not doing this?" Nope...everything is A-ok.
These people would not know "The hard right vs the easy wrong". if it jumped up and slapped them in the face.
"Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain refuse to allow Israel to use their airspace for attacks on Iran." Good! But does that also include flights from the U.S bases in S.A. and Qatar, and elsewhere in the gulf, too? If so that certainly seems it would throw Israel's plans into chaos. Add to that the U.S. control of aerial refueling and this could stop Israel dead in its tracks as for an "offensive" war.
I concur with what has been said. The only problem is Benny. To repeat what i said before, for all the reasons stated before, and to include the weather getting bad in November (which i forgot about) he has to attack.
He will /may not get another chance of all the pieces being in the right place.
But maybe we will get lucky and he will cave in. No Attack on Iran . Then with no US ground involvement , he will eventually be defeated in Lebanon. Following that, he will then probably fall from power in the next 12 months and have to take his lumps.
Unless he gets real pressure from the US, I do not see the above happening. All indicators seem to show that the US has bought into the attack and an attack is now inevitable.
What really should make people angry is the US Military is going along with this. We are supporting this insanity with material , men and money. Now we are supporting a war criminal who is under indictment from the ICC. We have physical proof that his soldiers deliberately killed civilians . That they used excessive force. That they tortured people. It is an affront to the traditional principles of western Civilization. We have., many times in our history , failed to live up to those principles, but in this case, to blatantly disregarded these principles is sickening. The Moral compass of our Military is broke. That is dangerous for any Republic.
Have all the educated men and women in the US government forgotten about Nuremberg or the "Yamashita Standard" of the Tokyo war crime trials?? Apparently so.
a quick refresher.......
You are directly responsible if the people under your command commit war crimes. You can also be guilty if you support an Allies who commits war crimes.
But do we hear any Generals or other leaders saying: "No, I am not doing this?" Nope...everything is A-ok.
These people would not know "The hard right vs the easy wrong". if it jumped up and slapped them in the face.
"Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain refuse to allow Israel to use their airspace for attacks on Iran." Good! But does that also include flights from the U.S bases in S.A. and Qatar, and elsewhere in the gulf, too? If so that certainly seems it would throw Israel's plans into chaos. Add to that the U.S. control of aerial refueling and this could stop Israel dead in its tracks as for an "offensive" war.