It seems clear that Israel is doing everything in its power to provoke a massive military response from Hezbollah—and Iran—that Israel will then use to play the victim card to the gullible West. Above all to the US, to draw us into a war that Israel can’t win—but that we can’t either.
Danny Davis did an excellent video on this topic today. I’ll provide the link and a kind of outline, with a few transcribed excerpts. Highly recommended:
IT'S WAR: Israeli Air Force Pound Southern Lebanon / Tanks Mass at Border
Israel is saying that "diplomacy" is dead. But what Israel means by "diplomacy" is unconditional surrender by the other side.
Air power cannot defeat an enemy that is dug into hills and mountains. That means the only alternative is a ground incursion.
Hezbollah has been preparing for this for well over a decade.
Hezbollah has not yet taken the glove off.
Israel has been hitting hard and killing lots of people, but rarely does that cause people to surrender--that's a fantasy. Hezbollah and similar groups are organized around the principle that you can cut off the head but the resistance continues. Lebanon has been suffering, but they will defend themselves rather than lay down for the aggressor.
"Israel doesn't seem to understand that. In fact, they are really full with a lot of, I think, unsubstantiated confidence."
Plays video of former PM Naftali Bennet, then:
"So remember that one phrase he just said there. 'We've done nothing to Hezbollah. I don't know what their deal is that they keep hitting us and doing all these things, and now of course what we are going to do?'--and you heard him very clearly say, we should 'push Hezbollah back.'"
"Push back" means a ground incursion. Bombs won't do that.
"I want to specifically look at what they were talking about there a minute ago, about how they've done nothing, that Hezbollah is just being mean guys and shooting rockets for no good reason. Not quite that way."
Since October 7:
7033 Israeli attacks on Lebanon
1500 Hezbollah and other attacks on Israel.
Israeli talking points and what they really mean:
"Tweet from the Israeli president Herzog, because it's also important here. He said: 'I repeat again and again we did not want this war, we do not want war, not today not ever, but we are entitled to the most basic rights any nation to live like any other people in peace, security, tranquility, and bring our sons and daughters back home, the hostages back to their families and the displaced citizens in the North and South to their homes and schools and businesses.’ Okay, fair enough as far as it goes. Who wouldn't want that? But when you say you don't want war and yet you're not willing to do anything to have even a ceasefire or even attempt a negotiated settlement--if a negotiated settlement means a win-win situation or that each side will at least get something it wants--that is what Israel is not willing to do. What you've heard from the Ambassador, from the former prime minister, and now from the current president is, They want all the stuff they want, and they want to give nothing in return. So they want Hezbollah to completely withdraw and surrender and they want to give nothing. They want their people to be able to move back in, and they're not concerned about people on the northern side."
Israel is pursuing a political objective with military means that will not and cannot succeed.
Israel doesn't have the manpower to do this.
Compared to Gaza, southern Lebanon is a whole new ball game. Quotes the same US Army studies I have quoted about the poor performance of the IDF in 2006. Hezbollah, by contrast, impressed the US Army. Since then the only action the IDF has seen has been brutalizing unarmed civilians—they aren’t ready for a real war, as Gaza has demonstrated on an exponentially less intense level. Describes Battle of Bint Jbeil in some detail, how typical that will be for any ground incursion.
The problem with the Israeli way of war, and always has been, is that they want to strike hard--as if that will solve any problem, but they never count the costs and they always regard their opponents/victims as subhumans. This is a function of Zionist ideology and typical Israeli arrogance fueled by wishful thinking and lack of introspection. Israel exercises no restraint at all. Instead, they use violence left and right to get what they want without regard for consequences, but they are not going to get that here.
Hezbollah is likely to follow the usual tactic: Allow Israel to get sucked in and get bogged down. That's when the attrition begins, and when Hezbollah will begin using their missiles to devastating effect.
What should US do?
We should start by asserting our interests, rather than allowing Israel to tell us what to do. Quotes Matt Miller on US position--we want a ceasefire and no escalation:
"What is he even talking about? 'Try to get to a ceasefire?' I mean, how many times does Netanyahu have to look you in the face and tell you, 'No'? He went on Fox News a couple of weeks back and, when asked expressly about the ceasefire that our Secretary of State had said Israel had agreed to and we're just trying to get Hamas to get to 'yes', [Netanyahu] said, 'No, absolutely not.' Just point blank, No."
"This tiny country of like 8 million is basically--not basically--is explicitly telling us what to do. They are running the show and we're doing nothing about it. It just defies understanding, common sense, and logic that we're putting ourselves in a position ... I mean, if you've been watching our channel you've that that our ammunition and weapons stock piles are really low, we don't even have enough missile interceptors to be able to meet the quota and the sales that we've made to other countries around the world and still give them to Ukraine, and now then you're talking about possibly opening up a new warfront here? I assure you, the the needs that Israel has had so far in its fight against Hamas is nothing compared to the much higher quantity and concentration of weapons and ammunition that they're going to need to fight this much harder battle in southern Lebanon. Everywhere you want to look there's compounding problems and we are in real risk of getting strategically overstretched to the breaking point, especially if we get sucked into the war itself. Folks, I'm just telling you we don't have the ammunition to fight a war right now unless you totally shut down the Russia Ukraine war and stop sending weapons and ammunition anywhere else and then go on a full on mobilization of industry in the United States, like a full wartime footing which would take probably years to be able to get to.
"This is what we should do: 'If you invade into Southern Lebanon you are on your own. If you start a war with Hezbollah and with Iran you're going to do it by yourself. Do not count on any support from us.' We're not getting that kind of leverage. We could bring the negotiations into a rational place to where you have give and take like they did in 2006, and they got to a ceasefire and a settlement. Now of course it was squandered over the years because Israel continued to not do anything to try to eliminate the cause of that conflict. And certainly everything that's taking place in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank has just continued to keep that roiled."
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor·
18m
BREAKING: Lebanon hit with massive bomb, one of the largest Israel has ever sent.
Developing.
Shockwave felt many many miles away..