Col. Davis Gets The Last Word On F-16s To Ukraine, For Now

Col. Daniel Davis, in the course of this video discussion with Andrew Napolitano (After Bakhmut, Is Russia Still Advancing? Col Daniel Davis), offered a brief and succinct cold shower to anyone who thinks F-16s in Ukraine will prove to be some sort of game changer. Shortly after the 15:00 mark Napolitano asks Davis whether Americans will inevitably end up piloting any F-16s that actually enter into the active war zone in Ukraine. Napolitano’s question is based on the learning curve for acquiring the skills to use F-16s competently. Beginning at 15:37 Colonel Davis responds (slightly edited), and he shoots down the fantasies of armchair war mongers who have watched videos of fighter jets and think of F-16 pilots as somehow similar to gun fighters of the Old West. That’s not what First World air warfare is like any longer.

Davis: Well, that's the question. I was actually speaking with a retired Air Force general the day before yesterday, a former F-16 pilot. He echoed what [other critics of this move] have said. [F-16 pilots] are trained in a mentality that's different [from that of MiG-29 pilots]. A MiG-29 pilot can probably have the skills and transfer them to be able to learn to fly an F-16 within four months--in terms of getting the plane into the air and performing some of the functions. But "fighting" the aircraft and linking it to the integrated defense system that's necessary for maximizing the use of the F-16--which is what makes it so strong and powerful--is going to be extremely difficult [for Ukrainian pilots transferring to F-16s].

Look, this F-16 pilot really underscored that the F-16 is not a stealth aircraft. It can be seen and it is extremely vulnerable to both the Russian S-300, the Russian S-400, and the MiG-31s and the Su-35s that Russia has. So it will be very vulnerable. It will basically help the Ukrainians defend the airspace over their own capital in Kiev, but if [F-16s] start going toward the front line they're probably gonna be dropped just like the MiG-29s have been.

Q: Is this inching toward WW3? ...

Davis: At the moment it's not, any more than when we put in the tanks or the Patriot systems or the M777 howitzers in the beginning--so many so-called red lines that Russia didn't lack--but especially because these [F-16s] aren't gonna tip the balance anywhere. It's gonna be more of an annoyance for Russia. The only caveat is if they start to fire into Russia, because that's what my F-16 pilot told me was the biggest potential risk for escalation. If [F-16s] are to be effective at the front line they're gonna hafta attack ground targets on Russian soil, where the S-300, S-400, systems are. That would change the dynamics and that would open up NATO or American sites in Poland that support the war. Then you'd have the risk. If that [attacks on targets in Russia] doesn't happen, then I don't see us moving toward WW3 at the moment.

My take on this is that, if Ukrainian pilots fly these F-16s, the planes will be used for only very limited purposes which don’t make use of the plane’s full capabilities. Those capabilities can likely only be utilized if the planes are flown by very experienced NATO pilots who are linked to an integrated an air defense system. Such a system would almost certainly be controlled from some place in Poland—which would open up a serious can of worms for the US. Russia is in a much better position to attack such sites than America is to defend them. Further, even in this scenario the F-16s would remain very vulnerable.

What limited purposes might the F-16 be used for by Ukrainian pilots? This morning I heard an anonymous Brit—a member of government, I believe—telling The Duran guys that the F-16s will be used to launch Storm Shadow cruise missiles. That suggests that, just as the Russian MoD has been reporting, both the Storm Shadows and the launch platforms (reportedly formerly Polish Su-24s) are being shot down—the launch platforms in non-repaceable numbers. Assuming that the F-16 could be adapted for that use, it would still suffer from the same vulnerabilities that current planes in the Ukrainian inventory suffer from—as outlined by Colonel Davis.

For the time being one is left to wonder whether this is all mostly a propaganda ploy with the aim of inducing Russia to agree to the current Neocon fantasy of a “frozen conflict” or a ceasefire. We shall see, but for now Colonel Davis gets the last word.