Mark, this is an excellent summary, a deep explanation of Helmer's investigative reporting. Thank you so much. Snake oil can be vulgar and arrogant, I now know from the description of Witkoff. Kushner doesn't talk, but he's a very careful listener. Trump and his team are intent to take out Putin---main stream media condemns the man non-stop. I hope they fail. It is razor edge near-tragedy that Putin's achilles heel is his personal commitment for Russia to keep ties with the West. I think this is because Russia inherently embodies Western and Eastern characteristics, and to diminish the essence of this great continental power by political exclusion from part of its own identity would be anathema.
We should remember that Putin and Xi's overriding challenge is to manage the decline of the empire in such a manner as to give it as soft a landing as possible. Humiliations of nuclear powers must be avoided at all costs, as (iirc) JFK reminded us. Which means that the escalating demands for increasing imperial subsidies/tributes must be deflected and defeated as gently as possible.
That inevitably requires a "trial and minor error" approach which frequently can be mistaken for "appeasement", and thus will be criticized as such. However: what counts as exploitable appeasements, what as exploitable mistakes, and what as successes, can emerge only after the fact. Whereas what counts as catastrophic error will also be counted after the fact: but be counted in the death of billions. If, that is, there's anyone left to count: the first catastrophic error also being the last.
" Jared Kushner leads a $25-112 billion "master plan" for "New Gaza," envisioning a Riviera-style transformation, focusing on real estate, tech hubs, and tourism "
" Final Answer: Kushner or his corporations would be entitled to an estimated $4 billion (±$2 billion) share, primarily through management fees, carried interest, and potential equity in developments, assuming plan success and Affinity's involvement in funding channels. "
Ukraine Telegram - The Most Difficult Part Of The War Is About to Begin
===============================
Ukrainian Perspective
Legitimate
#layout
The entire Munich Conference once again clearly confirmed our information that there will be no peace, and all peace negotiations are just "theater," somewhat similar to the "tedious Normandy format."
Zelensky has become more bold in his statements against the peace deal, since the EU/globalists have almost allocated him a 90 billion loan for the war, which will last him until the spring of 2027.
This means that until the US elections, he will not "move forward" on the negotiations, but will do everything possible to disrupt them, blaming the Kremlin.
His statements that elections are possible after a two-month ceasefire are another trump card in the treasury of derailing the peace deal.
The chances of peace in the next three months are 5%.
The chances of peace in the next six months are 20%.
The chances of peace in the next nine months are 40%.
The chances of peace in the next 12 months are 55%.
We advise you to prepare for the most difficult year of the entire war period!
I have tried to read Helmer on several occasions. Sadly, he appears to be an Alzheimer's patient who also has ADHD. His thoughts are so scattered that they hardly ever make sense.
OK, your contention is that Helmer's claim that Russia is concerned about US seizures of shipping are simply the expressions of "an Alzheimer's patient who also has ADHD." BTW, Helmer's quotes of Lavrov on that issue are accurate transcriptions of Lavrov's actual statements, which would mean that Lavrov is also "an Alzheimer's patient who also has ADHD." I don't buy that.
How you drew those conclusions from my (brief) comment is beyond me. I was criticizing his writing as disorganized, confusing, and sometimes just plain wrong. Furthermore, I believe he is self-aggrandizing and overconfident in the reliability of his "sources." I don't consider him to be highly credible.
This comment of yours is no more enlightening than the first one. Some of his sources--one which I cite--are published comments by Russian officials.
For the record, I have in the past criticized Helmer myself--and have provided reasons. However, in this case it's clear to me that Helmer is on to something: there IS division/disagreement among Russian leaders--both in the government and in the oligarchic class. When you have Lavrov and Peskov openly disputing each other you know something is going on--"faction fighting" as Helmer terms it. It would be malpractice for me not to take note of it.
The Kremlin appears to be caught in a situation of playing according to someone's rules, something which must be confusing and stressful to do.. The approach to appoint non-government officials by the US to negotiate such complex issues appears to have elicited the same approach on the part of the Russians..
Under such intense conditions like economic sanctions and the war, the Russians must be wanting and are open to try everything that might bring a solution to the conflict and the ending of economic and financial sanctions.. Hence the underground tensions between the different sections of the Russian ruling class and the natsec establishment.. (from Johannesburg)
Lavrov in a longer version of the quote explicitly states that the Americans obey no rules, hold to no agreements, are not gentlemen. Cannot be trusted. Demonstrably.
It's unsurprising that there are competing factions and interests in Russia, just like they are in other countries. Putin enjoys much popular support, but also criticism for being "too soft".
Strategically, what goes on in the world can be categorised as re-establishment of deterrence, while the US follows a sort of Mahanian approach at threatening sea lines to weaponise trade.
There are influential people, like Sergey Karaganov, who openly advocate for nuclear strikes to restore such a deterrence, and their argument isn't without merit logically - we have tried everything, what else is there?
Putin's primary interest, going back to his Munich speech in '07, is to create safety for Russia and to prevent nuclear war. This has been an aspect of the current war in Ukraine, see NATO deployment of theoretically nuclear-capable launchers into eastern Europe.
That shows, imo, the greatest error of judgement in western leadership in demonizing Putin - he's a centrist who wants peace, and is ready to go to some lengths to achieve it, but there are those who would establish peace through strength, and in a very demonstrable way.
As the two Alex's from "The Duran" kept on saying, "Putin (Russia) has to walk away from any negotiations proposed by Trump..." Hasn't the history so far confirmed that salutary advice? Negotiating with the Anglo-Zionistas..? Why would you? They lie through their teeth, thinking five, six steps ahead in their game.... Don't trust the bastards.. Announce that VVP to the world...
MiH participants who have 3 or 4 hours this cloudy Sunday might choose to spend it viewing this rendition of the Warburg destruction of Russia (and sequels)
Budget about 45 min. additional to fact-check all the "persecutions" (suggested resource: David Biale, The Cultures of the Jews); another 2 hours to walk off the rage.
My take is that the Russians care much and value the international solidarity and partnerships they've garnerd since the start of the SMO.. They do not want to fit the propaganda pattern their Western adversaries are potraying them as.. (from Johannesburg)
" Jared Kushner leads a $25-112 billion "master plan" for "New Gaza," envisioning a Riviera-style transformation, focusing on real estate, tech hubs, and tourism
Kushner's Gaza plans have a limited chance of success..."
" Final Answer: Kushner's Gaza plans have a 40% chance of partial success (±15%) if Trump fails regime change, due to sustained Iranian influence and humanitarian gaps. "
"Final Answer: Trump has a 60% likelihood (±20%) of viewing an Iran attack as strategically beneficial to prevent Kushner’s Gaza plans from failing, based on proxy linkages but tempered by risks and alternatives."
.
40 % chance of partial success
Good Luck Finding Investors
Appears a lot of ' behind the scenes thought and discussions ' may be happening.
Q1. " what happens if Trump cannot take Iran and regime change, will Jared Kushners plans for the Gaza Riviera and construction in gaza fail ? the facts are Jared Kushner has been stated by Witkoff to be leading redevelopment plans "
" Final Answer: Kushner's Gaza plans have a 40% chance of partial success (±15%) if Trump fails regime change, due to sustained Iranian influence and humanitarian gaps. "
Q2. " so what you are reporting is that TRUMP has every reason to attack Iran in hope that son in law plans do not fail "
"Final Answer: Trump has a 60% likelihood (±20%) of viewing an Iran attack as strategically beneficial to prevent Kushner’s Gaza plans from failing, based on proxy linkages but tempered by risks and alternatives."
What we're learning is that this is the most corrupt regime yet in America. Starting wars for domestic political reasons has happened, so why not for personal financial gain?
Mark, this is an excellent summary, a deep explanation of Helmer's investigative reporting. Thank you so much. Snake oil can be vulgar and arrogant, I now know from the description of Witkoff. Kushner doesn't talk, but he's a very careful listener. Trump and his team are intent to take out Putin---main stream media condemns the man non-stop. I hope they fail. It is razor edge near-tragedy that Putin's achilles heel is his personal commitment for Russia to keep ties with the West. I think this is because Russia inherently embodies Western and Eastern characteristics, and to diminish the essence of this great continental power by political exclusion from part of its own identity would be anathema.
We should remember that Putin and Xi's overriding challenge is to manage the decline of the empire in such a manner as to give it as soft a landing as possible. Humiliations of nuclear powers must be avoided at all costs, as (iirc) JFK reminded us. Which means that the escalating demands for increasing imperial subsidies/tributes must be deflected and defeated as gently as possible.
That inevitably requires a "trial and minor error" approach which frequently can be mistaken for "appeasement", and thus will be criticized as such. However: what counts as exploitable appeasements, what as exploitable mistakes, and what as successes, can emerge only after the fact. Whereas what counts as catastrophic error will also be counted after the fact: but be counted in the death of billions. If, that is, there's anyone left to count: the first catastrophic error also being the last.
ASKED GROK - THE KUSHNER TAKE OR SHARE ON GAZA
" Jared Kushner leads a $25-112 billion "master plan" for "New Gaza," envisioning a Riviera-style transformation, focusing on real estate, tech hubs, and tourism "
" Final Answer: Kushner or his corporations would be entitled to an estimated $4 billion (±$2 billion) share, primarily through management fees, carried interest, and potential equity in developments, assuming plan success and Affinity's involvement in funding channels. "
.
.
Ukraine Telegram - The Most Difficult Part Of The War Is About to Begin
===============================
Ukrainian Perspective
Legitimate
#layout
The entire Munich Conference once again clearly confirmed our information that there will be no peace, and all peace negotiations are just "theater," somewhat similar to the "tedious Normandy format."
Zelensky has become more bold in his statements against the peace deal, since the EU/globalists have almost allocated him a 90 billion loan for the war, which will last him until the spring of 2027.
This means that until the US elections, he will not "move forward" on the negotiations, but will do everything possible to disrupt them, blaming the Kremlin.
His statements that elections are possible after a two-month ceasefire are another trump card in the treasury of derailing the peace deal.
The chances of peace in the next three months are 5%.
The chances of peace in the next six months are 20%.
The chances of peace in the next nine months are 40%.
The chances of peace in the next 12 months are 55%.
We advise you to prepare for the most difficult year of the entire war period!
.
I have tried to read Helmer on several occasions. Sadly, he appears to be an Alzheimer's patient who also has ADHD. His thoughts are so scattered that they hardly ever make sense.
OK, your contention is that Helmer's claim that Russia is concerned about US seizures of shipping are simply the expressions of "an Alzheimer's patient who also has ADHD." BTW, Helmer's quotes of Lavrov on that issue are accurate transcriptions of Lavrov's actual statements, which would mean that Lavrov is also "an Alzheimer's patient who also has ADHD." I don't buy that.
How you drew those conclusions from my (brief) comment is beyond me. I was criticizing his writing as disorganized, confusing, and sometimes just plain wrong. Furthermore, I believe he is self-aggrandizing and overconfident in the reliability of his "sources." I don't consider him to be highly credible.
This comment of yours is no more enlightening than the first one. Some of his sources--one which I cite--are published comments by Russian officials.
For the record, I have in the past criticized Helmer myself--and have provided reasons. However, in this case it's clear to me that Helmer is on to something: there IS division/disagreement among Russian leaders--both in the government and in the oligarchic class. When you have Lavrov and Peskov openly disputing each other you know something is going on--"faction fighting" as Helmer terms it. It would be malpractice for me not to take note of it.
Take notes.
Start by defining the Dramatis Personae
Why?
The Kremlin appears to be caught in a situation of playing according to someone's rules, something which must be confusing and stressful to do.. The approach to appoint non-government officials by the US to negotiate such complex issues appears to have elicited the same approach on the part of the Russians..
Under such intense conditions like economic sanctions and the war, the Russians must be wanting and are open to try everything that might bring a solution to the conflict and the ending of economic and financial sanctions.. Hence the underground tensions between the different sections of the Russian ruling class and the natsec establishment.. (from Johannesburg)
Lavrov in a longer version of the quote explicitly states that the Americans obey no rules, hold to no agreements, are not gentlemen. Cannot be trusted. Demonstrably.
True, true, and true.
It's unsurprising that there are competing factions and interests in Russia, just like they are in other countries. Putin enjoys much popular support, but also criticism for being "too soft".
Strategically, what goes on in the world can be categorised as re-establishment of deterrence, while the US follows a sort of Mahanian approach at threatening sea lines to weaponise trade.
There are influential people, like Sergey Karaganov, who openly advocate for nuclear strikes to restore such a deterrence, and their argument isn't without merit logically - we have tried everything, what else is there?
Putin's primary interest, going back to his Munich speech in '07, is to create safety for Russia and to prevent nuclear war. This has been an aspect of the current war in Ukraine, see NATO deployment of theoretically nuclear-capable launchers into eastern Europe.
That shows, imo, the greatest error of judgement in western leadership in demonizing Putin - he's a centrist who wants peace, and is ready to go to some lengths to achieve it, but there are those who would establish peace through strength, and in a very demonstrable way.
As the two Alex's from "The Duran" kept on saying, "Putin (Russia) has to walk away from any negotiations proposed by Trump..." Hasn't the history so far confirmed that salutary advice? Negotiating with the Anglo-Zionistas..? Why would you? They lie through their teeth, thinking five, six steps ahead in their game.... Don't trust the bastards.. Announce that VVP to the world...
That's my view. The Anglo-Zionists will never make peace, only angle for an advantage.
urbs londinii delenda est.
Thank you for another Latin lesson
MiH participants who have 3 or 4 hours this cloudy Sunday might choose to spend it viewing this rendition of the Warburg destruction of Russia (and sequels)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPObk3fM8pI
Video is 2 hours.
Budget about 45 min. additional to fact-check all the "persecutions" (suggested resource: David Biale, The Cultures of the Jews); another 2 hours to walk off the rage.
My take is that the Russians care much and value the international solidarity and partnerships they've garnerd since the start of the SMO.. They do not want to fit the propaganda pattern their Western adversaries are potraying them as.. (from Johannesburg)
Thank you Mark, excellent info and analysis.
OT: Apologies - But I Had To Ask The Question
ASK GROK:
WHAT IF TRUMP FAILS ON REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN
" Jared Kushner leads a $25-112 billion "master plan" for "New Gaza," envisioning a Riviera-style transformation, focusing on real estate, tech hubs, and tourism
Kushner's Gaza plans have a limited chance of success..."
" Final Answer: Kushner's Gaza plans have a 40% chance of partial success (±15%) if Trump fails regime change, due to sustained Iranian influence and humanitarian gaps. "
"Final Answer: Trump has a 60% likelihood (±20%) of viewing an Iran attack as strategically beneficial to prevent Kushner’s Gaza plans from failing, based on proxy linkages but tempered by risks and alternatives."
.
40 % chance of partial success
Good Luck Finding Investors
Appears a lot of ' behind the scenes thought and discussions ' may be happening.
.
.
Kushner and co redefine ‘ghoul’ downwards.
2 questions asked:
Q1. " what happens if Trump cannot take Iran and regime change, will Jared Kushners plans for the Gaza Riviera and construction in gaza fail ? the facts are Jared Kushner has been stated by Witkoff to be leading redevelopment plans "
" Final Answer: Kushner's Gaza plans have a 40% chance of partial success (±15%) if Trump fails regime change, due to sustained Iranian influence and humanitarian gaps. "
Q2. " so what you are reporting is that TRUMP has every reason to attack Iran in hope that son in law plans do not fail "
"Final Answer: Trump has a 60% likelihood (±20%) of viewing an Iran attack as strategically beneficial to prevent Kushner’s Gaza plans from failing, based on proxy linkages but tempered by risks and alternatives."
What we're learning is that this is the most corrupt regime yet in America. Starting wars for domestic political reasons has happened, so why not for personal financial gain?
. If there is a straw to break the back
this
appears to be a very heavy straw
The fear is - if the military has Trump 50% convinced to go in, or say 60/40 but reluctant -
This is a deciding factor - Jared Kushner may well be the deciding factor on whether or not Trump takes the US to war in Iran
.
.
If anyone wants the full GROK conversation I am happy to post it