What will Netanyahu do now? Attention switches back to his court case. Will he accept reality or will he, Gvir and Smotrich attack anyway knowing (they hope) that Uncle Schmuel will bail them out?
Sharp analysis on the casualty calculus changing everything. The idea that Taiwan might see Xi as genial enough to come to terms with is pretty sobering when you consider how much US policy banks on cross-strait tensions staying frozen. I've noticed even mainstream outlets quietly dropping the 'defend Taiwan at all costs' rethoric lately. Once other countries realize they can impose costs that Trump politically can't absrob, the whole deterrence model collapses.
In the the last sentence, Graham uttered words to the effect that he hoped the regime's days were numbered. I immediately got excited thinking that he meant that he wouldn't run for reelection.
Yep, as you mentioned in the comment section, what happened to make Trump back down is that he received a message from Russia. Vladimir yanked on Trump's leash and said, "Don't attack Iran!"
As any well-trained dog would do, he backed down. ;)
I wonder if Turkey shut down Azerbaijan as a staging point this time. If something happens to Erdogan’s health in the next few months we’ll definitely know.
Incredible. Trump continuously threatening a strike on Iran, then gets confronted by some cold hard facts; yet, all the while Putin mediates for restraint. Who is the peace president now?
Fair enough. But when he attacks next, he'll likely limit himself to stand-off missile bombardment, declare victory, and move on. Now that the CIA and Mossad have burned through their MEK jihadists, Baluchis/Kurds and criminal riff-raff in their failed coup, it's about all he can do without taking casualties.
Problem. Bases aren't standoff weapons--they're subject to retaliatory strikes. And if the bases are abandoned, your ability to launch standoff strikes becomes more limited, since those bases have been used for surveillance purposes.
What will Netanyahu do now? Attention switches back to his court case. Will he accept reality or will he, Gvir and Smotrich attack anyway knowing (they hope) that Uncle Schmuel will bail them out?
There’s no anticipating sociopathic thinking using non-sociopathic minds.
True, Mike. It's a big fault of mine.
Sharp analysis on the casualty calculus changing everything. The idea that Taiwan might see Xi as genial enough to come to terms with is pretty sobering when you consider how much US policy banks on cross-strait tensions staying frozen. I've noticed even mainstream outlets quietly dropping the 'defend Taiwan at all costs' rethoric lately. Once other countries realize they can impose costs that Trump politically can't absrob, the whole deterrence model collapses.
From ZeroHedge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lindsey-drowns-sorrows-after-trump-refrained-iran-attack-no-guarantees
In the the last sentence, Graham uttered words to the effect that he hoped the regime's days were numbered. I immediately got excited thinking that he meant that he wouldn't run for reelection.
Then reality set in. LOL.
Yep, as you mentioned in the comment section, what happened to make Trump back down is that he received a message from Russia. Vladimir yanked on Trump's leash and said, "Don't attack Iran!"
As any well-trained dog would do, he backed down. ;)
But as usual, Trump pushed things to their max before heeding Vladimir’s message…must have been a fearsome warning.
I wonder if Turkey shut down Azerbaijan as a staging point this time. If something happens to Erdogan’s health in the next few months we’ll definitely know.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-israel-secretly-agreed-not-attack-each-other-through-russian-backchannel-wapo
Incredible. Trump continuously threatening a strike on Iran, then gets confronted by some cold hard facts; yet, all the while Putin mediates for restraint. Who is the peace president now?
I DON'T BELIEVE HIM!
This is the tactic he played last time.
https://x.com/mtracey/status/2011865202438902219?s=20
Fair enough. But when he attacks next, he'll likely limit himself to stand-off missile bombardment, declare victory, and move on. Now that the CIA and Mossad have burned through their MEK jihadists, Baluchis/Kurds and criminal riff-raff in their failed coup, it's about all he can do without taking casualties.
Problem. Bases aren't standoff weapons--they're subject to retaliatory strikes. And if the bases are abandoned, your ability to launch standoff strikes becomes more limited, since those bases have been used for surveillance purposes.
I wasn't even considering the bases! Mainly because not a single US base can fire Tomahawks, the missile of choice. ;)
The US tried a Libyan play book "to save lives" and failed.
And, of course, what does this mean for the future of US bases in the region? Iran threatened to attack countries that host US bases.