Briefly: Presidential Politics, 9/4/24

There are a number of stories out today that suggest that the wheels could be coming off the Kama Sutra campaign—already. Now, the whole swap deal—Zhou out, Kama Sutra in—appears to have been an Obama op, playing off legitimate Dem fear that Dementia Zhou was a sure fire loser who could drag the Senate down with him. Nobody else may have had any use for Kama Sutra, but the Obamas—both of them—were big fans. Once the decision was made to swap Zhou out, all factors worked together to make Kama Sutra the only practical replacement.

But now …

TGP is carrying this story—and, remember, this is only a few weeks out from the Dem convention, with the real campaign season barely under way:

CUTTING THEIR LOSSES? Kamala Harris Campaign Offloading Millions to Down-Ballot Races Across the Country

The money part of the post includes these quotes:

Why would they take millions away from the Harris campaign with such a short distance to the election?

Breitbart News reports:

Kamala Harris Campaign Reallocates Millions to Down-Ballot Races After Post-Convention Polling Stall

Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign is setting a record, albeit one with questionable electoral benefits for Harris.

Harris’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) are offloading nearly $25 million dollars to down-ballot races across the country in “an earlier investment and far more money than the top of the ticket has sent in past election years,” Politico reported.

The unprecedented reallocation comes as Harris’s campaign goes on defense after failing to achieve a post-convention bump taken for granted by most modern campaigns. Harris and her top surrogates were dispatched to blue states this week, where former President Donald Trump continues to show unexpected strength.

The down-ballot spending also follows a terrible week capped by the campaign’s trashing of 13 Gold Star families — an attack that blew up spectacularly.

Politico notes that Democrats did something similar in 2020, but moved far less cash to the other races:

The transfers to support down-ballot races are notable both for their timing and large amounts. In 2020, the DNC transferred $5 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and $1 million to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee [DSCC] in mid-October, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. Earlier money gives the committees more spending options, as common campaign tactics such as hiring staff, taping ads or printing mailers take time.

The Democrats’ greatest fear is Trump winning with a GOP controlled House and Senate. Trump would be able to act almost immediately and there would be little to nothing that Democrats could do about it.

There have been numerous articles pointing out that Kama Sutra’s positive polling, such as it has been, was achieved by outrageously skewed poll demographics. One poll I saw showed a sample that was nearly 2/3 Dems. Obviously, Dem insiders know better what the real numbers are. Perhaps Dem insiders are looking at the numbers that Nate Silver just came up with. Silver shows the polling numbers from just this past week, and compares them to the numbers from mid-August, before the Dem convention. The numbers show Trump’s position slightly improving, and no “bump” for Kama Sutra coming out of the convention:

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/3)

Chance of winning

•  Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)

•  Harris: 43.0%

——

Swing States: chance of winning

• Pennsylvania -  Trump 57-43%

• Georgia -  Trump 64-36%

• Arizona -  Trump 67-33%

• North Carolina -  Trump 70-30%

• Nevada -  Trump 57-43%

• Michigan -  Harris 51-49%

• Wisconsin -  Harris 53-47%

——

@Polymarket odds Trump: 51% Harris: 47%

Polymarket swing states odds https://polymarket.com/elections

Quote

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

August 14

•  Harris: 56.7%

•  Trump: 42.7%

August 31

•  Trump: 55.1%

•  Harris: 44.6%

——

• Swing States: chance of winning

• Pennsylvania -  Trump 55-45%

• Nevada -  Trump 55-45%

• Arizona -  Trump 65-35%

• Georgia -  Trump 64-36%

• North Carolina -  Trump 68-32%

• Michigan -  Harris 53-47%

• Wisconsin -  Harris 55-45%

——

@Polymarket odds

•  Trump: 50%

•  Harris: 48%

Polymarket swing states odds 

https://polymarket.com/elections

11:40 AM · Sep 3, 2024

The situation is probably going to worsen, because while these numbers show Kama Sutra with a slim lead in two swing states, Trump actually polls better on the economy—THE issue in all elections, including this one—in ALL swing states. That’s according to CNN.

Is all this a reason to shift $25 million out of the Kama Sutra campaign, in an effort to take the House and Senate? Could be. Consider the latest Senate numbers:

CNN Polls: Republican Senate Candidates Pull Even with Top of Ticket

Trump-backed Republican Senate candidates in key battleground states are closing in on their Democrat opponents, with most margins reflecting those of the presidential race in CNN/SSRS polls of likely voters. The trend among likely voters suggests that the switch from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat presidential nominee will not be as beneficial to down-ballot Senate candidates as Democrats had hoped, …

And the serial missteps of the Kama Sutra campaign could be strengthening the impression that the wheels are coming off her campaign. We’ve all heard about the debacle that was the CNN interview of Kama Sutra, and her continuing refusal to speak to the media. Here’s the latest crazy move:

Kamala Harris new campaign hire attacks America as a 'cult,' 'bloodthirsty imperial beast'
MSN ^

“FIRST ON FOX – Vice President Kamala Harris recently hired a director on her campaign who has attacked swaths of White Christians and claimed that America is an imperial "cult" and "bloodthirsty… beast."

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...

Well, we shall see.