Briefly Noted--Mostly The Niger Front

But, before we get to the Niger front, a brief note from Poland:

Max Abrahms

@MaxAbrahms

A senior Polish official has suggested Ukraine should be more grateful for the support it has been receiving from Poland since the start of Russia’s invasion last year.

Zelenskyy urges cool heads as Poland lashes out at Ukraine in gratitude spat

Polish PM slaps Kyiv down for summoning Warsaw’s ambassador.

9:10 AM · Aug 2, 2023

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stepped in to call for restraint late Tuesday in an effort to end an escalating diplomatic spat with Ukrainian ally Poland.

Earlier on Tuesday, Kyiv had summoned Warsaw’s envoy after a senior Polish official suggested Ukraine should be more grateful for the support it has been receiving from Poland since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion last year.

What’s really behind this “gratitude spat?” This:

Scandal erupts in Poland over Ukraine’s reluctance to apologize for Volyn massacre

Poles think Ukrainians should apologize for massacring tens of thousands of Poles, Ukrainians don’t see why they should. The estimates for the death toll range between 50k and 100k. One charming aspect of the massacres is that most of the killing was done with axes and other farm implements—presumably to save on precious ammunition—and was accompanied by “extreme brutality”.

Massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia

This is a huge issue in Poland, and especially in view of the unpopularity of Ukrainians who have flooded into Poland, transforming the country’s demographics.

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On to Niger!

I don’t know much about Niger, but the first thing to ask is: Is Niger really a front in WW3? It appears that the answer is yes. The reason we’re talking about Niger is that Niger had a coup. If you’ve seen photos of the crowds of coup supporters in Niamey you will have noticed signs reading: Vive Putin! or Vive la Russe! That’s a clue. Tom Luongo also provides a clue as to why people in places like France care:

This Niger situation is hotting up quick.

Niger: No Yellowcake for you!

France: Send in the military

Russia: <phones Wagner>

That’s right. Even though Niger is dirt poor, so to speak, it happens to be rich in resources like uranium and gold. In fact, it’s the largest supplier of uranium to France, which is heavily dependent on nuclear power. Further, for the EU, which is seeking affordable alternatives to Russian energy, Niger is strategically located:

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  --

@GeromanAT

If the situation in Niger is not stabilized according to the standards of the West, there will be nothing for the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, which according to the contractor's plans was supposed to supply the  EU countries with as much as 30 billion cubic meters of Nigerian gas annually.

6:33 AM · Aug 1, 2023

The original reaction of France was to send in the military. For now that doesn’t appear to be happening. There’s considerable anti-French feeling in this part of the Sahel—resentment at neocolonial exploitation in these very poor but mineral rich countries—so a military intervention could quickly become a quagmire. In addition, Niger is surrounded by countries that have good to close relations with Russia, including Algeria to the north.

The US has boots—and an airstrip—on the ground in Niger, which tells you something about the strategic importance of the country as well as about US concerns for Russian and Chinese influence in the region. There’s a necessary caveat to this tweet. The tweet makes it sound like this is a specifically anti-US move by the new military government of Niger. Other accounts state that the closure is of Niger’s air space—in other words, operations have been shut down, which is different than the base itself being closed.

Tony

@Cyberspec1

The Niger situation is getting more interesting...

Niger forces closure of key US intelligence, surveillance & drone base.

Known as “Nigerien Air Base 201,” the US installation features a 6,200-foot runway for MQ-9 Reapers as well as manned aircraft.

The U.S. military has been using this base for drone operations in Northern Africa since 2019.

***

The military government of the Republic of Niger, announced the opening of air and land borders with Algeria, Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali and Chad.....but not with Nigeria

5:26 AM · Aug 2, 2023

Is Russia behind some or all of this? Probably. The question is, To what extent? That’s what Simplicius tries to explore today. Simplicius describes the coup in Niger as “momentous” and has a photo of a Daily Telegraph article headlined: How Pro-Putin Coup Threatens Europe’s Nuclear Stocks. Simplicius begins with this:

Momentous things are setting into motion geopolitically all over the globe, most notably in Africa. A coup took down the president of Niger, a country of critical importance to France and the NATO bloc. The Atlanticists are extremely worried now:

Well, John Mearsheimer did say that Russia is now starting to play “hardball.” I’ve been arguing, as well, that Russia has barely scratched the surface so far as regards possible responses to sanctions and escalations by the West. This move in the Sahel could be part of what Simplicius terms asymetric responses by Russia to sanctions and sabotage—such as the terror attack on the Nordstream pipeline. The Anglosphere has attempted to stir up trouble in Russia’s near abroad—the Caucasus and Central Asia. The idea is to force Russia to have to deal with putting out multiple fires at the same time. It hasn’t worked, but could this be Russia showing that they can play that game, too?

Simplicius then goes on to suggest that Russia and China may be acting in concert. What he’s referring to is the recent actions of China to restrict the export of critical materials. This is worth quoting:

At the same time, China is slowly putting the crimp on the West’s supplies of critical precious metals and rare earths essential for chip industries. New reports state the following:

Chinese export controls on germanium and gallium have stepped into effect amid fears that this will mean more expensive microchips, solar panels, cars, and even weapons. More significantly, the restrictions threaten to sink the Biden administration’s ambitious domestic microchip manufacturing goals, says China-US trade expert Thomas Pauken II.

China’s rare earths restrictions officially stepped into force on Tuesday, with the measures, announced last month after Beijing said it needed to protect its “national security and interests,” expected to cause a sharp jump in the cost of an array of advanced manufactured goods, particularly electronics.

“China produces upwards of 80 percent of the world’s gallium, and 60 percent of its germanium, with experts predicting that it could take “generations” for the US to replace lost Chinese capacity.”

This represents a one-two punch from both sides as Russia and China are whipsawing the West asymmetrically. I’ve already written at length about how the West likes to portray themselves as independent with Russia as the one reliant on their ‘electronics’, yet it’s the West themselves who are hugely reliant on the natural resources that Russia/China produce, as well as those found in Africa.

Again, as I’ve argued with regard to Mearsheimer’s view that nobody comes out a winner in the Ukraine proxy war: Don’t be too sure. I have yet to see Mearsheimer adequately address these sanctions counter measures—Russia’s escalation dominance on this front as well as the military. This may also explain Russia’s willingness to pursue an attritional strategy that minimizes casualties—there are multiple ways to accomplish the strategic goal.